SEMINARIO DI
SISTEMI
DINAMICI
ore
16.00
Scuola Normale
Superiore
Pisa
(Aula
Bianchi)
Silvayn
Arlot
CNRS,
Ecole Normale Superieure Paris
Terrà un seminario dal
titolo:
“Resampling-based
estimation of the accuracy of satellite ephemerides”
Abstract:
The accuracy of
predicted orbital positions of satellites depends on the quality of the
theoretical model and of the observations used to fit the model. During the
period of observations, this accuracy can be estimated through comparison with
observations. Outside this period, the estimation remains difficult. Many
methods have been developed for asteroid ephemerides in order to evaluate this
accuracy. We introduce in this talk a new method for estimating the accuracy of
predicted positions at any time, in particular outside the observation period.
This method is based upon the bootstrap resampling scheme, and allows this
estimation with minimal assumptions. The method is applied to two of the main
Saturnian satellites, Mimas and Titan, and compared with other methods used
previously for asteroids. The bootstrap-based method turns out to be robust and
practical for estimating the accuracy of predicted positions.This talk is based
on a joint work with J. Desmars, J.-E. Arlot, V. Lainey and A.
Vienne.
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sono invitati a partecipare.
La Segreteria della
Classe
di Scienze