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Seminario di Probabilità - Padova
by Paolo Dai Pra 13 Mar '17

13 Mar '17

Ho il piacere di invitarvi al seguente seminario, che si terrà Lunedì 20 Marzo, alle 14:15, in aula 1BC45 della Torre Archimede presso il Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Università degli Studi di Padova. SPEAKER: Francesca Nardi AFFILIATION: Università di Firenze TITLE: Hitting Time Asymptotics for Hard-Core Interactions on Grids ABSTRACT: We consider the hard-core model with Metropolis transition probabilities on finite grid graphs and investigate the asymptotic behavior of the first hitting time between its two maximum-occupancy configurations in the low-temperature regime. In particular, we show how the order-of-magnitude of this first hitting time depends on the grid sizes and on the boundary conditions by means of a novel combinatorial method. Our analysis also proves the asymptotic exponentiality of the scaled hitting time and yields the mixing time of the process in the low-temperature limit as side-result. In order to derive these results, we extended the model-independent framework in Manzo et al. (J Stat Phys 115(1/2):591–642, 2004) for first hitting times to allow for a more general initial state and target subset. Work in collaboration with A. Zocca S. C. Borst Paolo Dai Pra Dipartimento di Matematica Via Trieste, 63 35121 Padova Tel. +39 0498271361 Fax +39 0498271428 daipra(a)math.unipd.it

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Seminario DE IORIO
by Matteo Ruggiero 10 Mar '17

10 Mar '17

************************************************************************ STATISTICS SEMINARS @ COLLEGIO CARLO ALBERTO ************************************************************************ Venerdi 17 Marzo 2017 alle ore 12:00, presso l’Aula Rossa del Collegio Carlo Alberto, Moncalieri (TO), si terra' il seguente seminario: Maria DE IORIO (University College London) DEPENDENT GENERALISED DIRICHLET PROCESS PRIORS We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric process prior for modelling a collections of random discrete distributions. This process is defined by combining a Generalised Dirichlet Process with a suitable Beta regression framework that introduces dependence among the discrete random distributions. This strategy allows for covariate dependent clustering of the observations. Some advantages of the proposed approach include wide applicability, ease of interpretation and efficient MCMC algorithms. The methodology is illustrated through two real data applications involving acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and London primary schools quality evaluations. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Il seminario e' organizzato dalla "de Castro" Statistics Initiative (http://www.carloalberto.org/stats <http://www.carloalberto.org/stats>) in collaborazione con il Collegio Carlo Alberto. Cordiali saluti, Matteo Ruggiero --- Matteo Ruggiero University of Torino and Collegio Carlo Alberto www.matteoruggiero.it

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seminari Bernard e Vanduffel in Bicocca
by Fabio Bellini 10 Mar '17

10 Mar '17

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(senza oggetto)
by Piccioni, Mauro 09 Mar '17

09 Mar '17

Lunedì 13 marzo Ore 16:00, Aula di Consiglio, Dipartimento di Matematica, Università Roma La Sapienza Seminario di probabilità e statistica matematica Yosi Rinott, The Hebrew University and LUISS. Title: Differential Privacy applied to common methods of dissemination of frequency tables. When official data are to be disseminated to the public, the agency that releases the data must guarantee the privacy of individuals whose data are to be released. It is not clear how to define and measure privacy. I will explain a notion developed in computer science known as Differential Privacy, and my work (with others) on issues that arise in applying it to the dissemination of frequency tables. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati ad intervenire. Per informazioni rivolgersi a piccioni(a)mat.uniroma1.it

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Reminder - Seminario CARLO SGARRA @ UniTo
by Federico Polito 07 Mar '17

07 Mar '17

********************************************************************* SEMINARI DI PROBABILITA' E STATISTICA MATEMATICA DIPARTIMENTO DI MATEMATICA "G. PEANO" UNIVERSITA' DEGLI STUDI DI TORINO ********************************************************************* *::..Reminder..::* Mercoledì 15 Marzo 2017 alle ore 11:30 in Aula C presso il Dipartimento di Matematica "G. Peano" dell'Università degli Studi di Torino, Via Carlo Alberto 10, Il Prof. CARLO SGARRA (Politecnico di Milano) terrà un seminario dal titolo A BRANCHING PROCESS-BASED APPROACH TO POWER MARKETS (The talk will be mainly based on a joint paper with Y. Jiao, C. Ma and S. Scotti). Abstract: Energy markets, and in particular, electricity markets, exhibit very peculiar features. The historical series of both futures and spot prices include seasonality, mean-reversion, spikes and small fluctuations. Very often a stochastic volatility dynamics is postulated in order to explain their high degree of variability. After the pioneering paper by Schwartz, where an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics is assumed to describe the spot price behavior, several different approaches have been investigated in order to describe the price evolution. High frequency trading, on the other hand, introduced some new features in commodity prices dynamics: in a recent paper by V. Filimonov, D. Bicchetti, N. Maystre and D. Sornette evidence is shown of endogeneity and structural regime shift, and in order to quantify this level the branching ratio is adopted as a measure of this endogenous impact and a Hawkes processes dynamics is assumed as a reasonable modelling framework taking into account the self-exciting properties. The purpose of the present investigation is to propose a new modeling framework including all the above mentioned features, still keeping a high level of tractability. The model considered allows to obtain the most common derivatives prices in closed or semi-closed form. Here with semi-closed we mean that the Laplace transform of the derivative price admits an explicit expression. The models we are going to introduce can describe the prices dynamics in two different forms, that can be proved to be equivalent: the first is a representation based on random fields, the second is based on Continuous Branching Processes with Immigration (CBI in the following). Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Un saluto, -- Federico Polito Department of Mathematics University of Torino Via Carlo Alberto, 10 10123, Torino, Italy Email: fpolito(a)unito.it Tel: +39 011 6702862 Web: www.federicopolito.it

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PhD course in GeoStatistics
by Laura M. Sangalli 07 Mar '17

07 Mar '17

The following PhD course in Geostatistics will be held at the Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano The course covers classical and advanced models and methods for the statistical analysis of data with spatial dependence. Lectures include tutorial sessions with the software R. Many case studies will be presented, with applications in the earth-sciences, in the neurosciences and more generally in the life-sciences (including medical imaging), and in the engineering. Lessons: 1 & 2) Kriging: stationary and isotropic random fields; structural properties of the variogram; valid variogram models; variogram estimation; kriging prediction for georeferenced data; drift estimation; kriging for data in Hilbert spaces. Lecturer: A. Menafoglio. 3) Non-parametric techniques. Lecturer: Simone Vantini. 4) Bayesian models for georeferenced data and areal data. Lecturer: A. Guglielmi. 5) Numerical methods for the analysis of spatially distributed data: thin-plate splines; tensor product splines. Lecturer: L. Sangalli. 6) Spatial regression with differential regularization. Lecturer: L. Sangalli. Essential bibliography: - N. Cressie. Statistics for Spatial data. John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1993. - S. Banerjee, B. P. Carlin, and A. E. Gelfand. Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data. Chapman & Hall / CRC, 2004. - R. Bivand, E. Pebesma, V. Gomez-Rubio. Applied Spatial Data Analysis with R. Springer, 2008 Calendar: Tuesday 7/3, 14:30-17:30, aula del Consiglio, seventh floor; Kriging; Lecturer: Alessandra Menafoglio Thursday 9/3, 10:00-13:00, aula Seminari, sixth floor; Kriging; Lecturer: Alessandra Menafoglio Tuesday 21/3, 14:30-17:30, aula Seminari, sixth floor; Non-parametric techniques; Lecturer: Simone Vantini Thursday 23/3, 14:30-17:30, aula Seminari, sixth floor; Bayesian models for georeferenced data and areal data; Lecturer: Alessandra Guglielmi Tuesday 28/3, 14:30-17:30, aula Seminari, sixth floor; Numerical methods for the analysis of spatially distributed data; Lecturer: Laura Sangalli Thursday 30/3, 14:30-17:30, aula Seminari, sixth floor; Spatial regression with differential regularization; Lecturer: Laura Sangalli People interested to attend are kindly requested to write an email to laura.sangalli(a)polimi.it -- Laura Maria Sangalli MOX - Dipartimento di Matematica Politecnico di Milano Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 20133 Milano - Italy tel: +39 02 2399 4554 fax: +39 02 2399 4568 email: laura.sangalli(a)polimi.it url: http://mox.polimi.it/~sangalli

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de Finetti risk seminar - March 2017
by Emanuela Rosazza 06 Mar '17

06 Mar '17

On behalf of the Scientific Committee of the de Finetti Risk Seminars, we are glad to invite you to participate at the following Lecture TITLE: Duality formulas for robust pricing and hedging in discrete time Patrick Cheridito ETH Zurich ABSTRACT: In this paper we derive robust super- and subhedging dualities for contingent claims that can depend on several underlying assets. In addition to strict super- and subhedging, we also consider relaxed versions which, instead of eliminating the shortfall risk completely, aim to reduce it to an acceptable level. This yields robust price bounds with tighter spreads. As applications we study strict super- and subhedging with general convex transaction costs and trading constraints as well as risk based hedging with respect to robust versions of the average value at risk and entropic risk measure. Our approach is based on representation results for increasing convex functionals and allows for general financial market structures. As a side result it yields a robust version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. Joint work with Michael Kupper and Ludovic Tangpi. LOCATION: The seminar will be held on Wednesday, March 15, at 18.00, Aula di rappresentanza, Dept. of Mathematics, Milano University, Via C. Saldini 50, Milano. A refreshment will be offered at 17.30. Scientific Committee Prof. Simone Cerreia-Voglio (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Marco Frittelli (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) Prof. Fabio Maccheroni (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Massimo Marinacci (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Emanuela Rosazza Gianin (Univ. Milano-Bicocca) Dott. Marco Maggis (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) **************************************************** Emanuela Rosazza Gianin Dipartimento di Statistica e Metodi Quantitativi Università di Milano Bicocca Edificio U7 – 4° Piano Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8 20126 Milano Tel. 02 64483208 Fax. 02 64483105 e-mail: emanuela.rosazza1(a)unimib.it *****************************************************

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Fwd: Bocconi Summer School in Statistics & Probability, 10-22 July 2017
by Pietro Muliere 06 Mar '17

06 Mar '17

Oggetto: [Forum SIS] Bocconi Summer School in Statistics & Probability, 10-22 July 2017 --> CALL FOR APPLICATIONS Bocconi Summer School in Advanced Statistics and Probability: "Statistical Causal Learning", July 10-22, 2017 http://spas.lakecomoschool.org We are pleased to announce the "Bocconi Summer School in Advanced Statistics and Probability", organized and sponsored by Bocconi University, Milano, in collaboration with the Lake Como School of Advanced Studies. The aim of the Bocconi Summer School is to establish a track of high level courses on advanced and cutting-edge topics in Statistics and Probability and related areas. The school is open to all interested scholars, but is especially addressed to doctoral students, and possibly to brilliant MSc graduates interested in pursuing doctoral studies in Statistics, Probability, Computer Science, Applied Mathematics, Operation Research and related fields. The School is hosted yearly at Villa del Grumello, on the shores of the Lake of Como, usually in July. The 2017 edition, on "STATISTICAL CAUSAL LEARNING", will take place on 10-22 July, 2017. INSTRUCTORS: * Bernhard Schölkopf (Empirical Inference Department Director, Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Tubingen); * Ilya Tolstikhin (Research Scientist, Max Plank Institute for Intelligent Systems, Tubingen); * David Lopez-Paz (Researcher at Facebook AI Research, Paris). APPLICATIONS: The School will be open to 30 qualified and selected students. Applications can be submitted BY APRIL 7, 2017, through the form: http://spas.lakecomoschool.org/application-form/ REGISTRATION and FEES. Admitted participants should register by May 7, 2017. The registration fee (450 euro) covers all the school activities and course material; wi-fi connections; all work-days lunches in the beautiful park of Villa del Grumello and accommodation in the Guest House of the Villa and in other facilities in the immediate surroundings for the 2 weeks (July 9 – July 22, 2017). For any further information, please visit the website http://spas.lakecomoschool.org or contact BBS.statistics(a)unibocconi.it

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seminario Università Bicocca
by daniela.bertacchi 06 Mar '17

06 Mar '17

ANNUNCIO DI SEMINARIO Il giorno 13/3/2017 alle ore 15 esatte, in aula 3014 presso il Dipartimento di Matematica e Applicazioni dell'Università di Milano-Bicocca, il professor Rafael De Mattos Grisi (Universidade Federal do ABC -Brasile) terrà un seminario dal titolo A view on maximal spacings in several dimensions tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Abstract: Let K be a compact subset of R^d and N a Poisson process on K. The maximal spacing of N on K is defined as the radius of the largest open ball in K, avoiding the points of N. Considering N homogenized with intensity t, Jason('87) studied the behaviour of the maximal spacing of N as t goes to infinity. In 1983, Deheuvels studied the asymptotic behaviour of the k-th maximal spacing considering K a hypercube and measuring the spaces also using hypercubes. More recently Fraiman et.al.('15) studied the non-homogeneous case. In this ongoing work, we try to generalize Jason's results, studying the behaviour of k-th maximal spacing for the homogeneous process. This is a joint work with Pablo Ferrari, from Universidad de Buenos Aires.

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Seminario di Probabilita, Pisa, Mercoledi 8 marzo, ore 11:00
by Carina Geldhauser 06 Mar '17

06 Mar '17

Annuncio Seminario di Probabilita, Pisa, Dipartmento di Matematica, Universita di Pisa Mercoledi, 8 marzo, ore 11:00, Aula Seminari Seminario di Probabilita SPEAKER 1 (ore 11:00): Francesca R. Nardi, University of Florence TITLE: Metastability for General Dynamics with Rare Transitions: Escape Time and Critical Configurations ABSTRACT: Metastability is an ubiquitous physical phenomenon in first order phase transitions. A fruitful mathematical way to approach this phenomenon is the study of rare transitions for Markov chains. For Metropolis chains associated with statistical mechanical systems, this phenomenon has been described in an elegant way through a pathwise approach in terms of the energy landscape associated to the Hamiltonian of the system. In the seminar we will first explain the main results and ideas of this approach and compare it with other existing ones. Then we will provide a similar description in the general rare transitions setup that can be applied to irreversible systems as well. Besides their theoretical content, we believe that our results are a useful tool to approach metastability for non-Metropolis systems such as Probabilistic Cellular Automata. Moreover, we will describe results pertaining to exponential hitting times which range of applicability includes irreversible systems, systems with exponentially growing volumes and systems with a general starting measure. (joint work with Emilio N. M. Cirillo, R. Fernandez, F. Manzo, E. Scoppola and J. Sohier). Dopo una pausa di circa 5min, proseguiamo con SPEAKER 2 (ore 12:00): Valeria De Mattei, Universita di Pisa TITLE: Mean field games with mean field and moderate interactions ABSTRACT: We consider a mean field game where N players interact both inthe cost functionals and in the dynamics. The new feature is that thedynamical interaction is of the so called "moderate" type, intermediatebetween the more classical mean field interaction and a strictly localinteraction. A modification of the classical mean field game scheme ispresented. Convergence to a system of PDEs, the mean field equation forour system, is discussed. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Per informazioni scrivere a carina.geldhauser(a)dm.unipi.it <mailto:carina.geldhauser@dm.unipi.it>

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