We are glad to announce that the 2019 Applied Bayesian Statistics Summer School (16th edition) will be held in the magnificent Villa del Grumello, Como (Italy) along the Lake Como shore.

                     BAYESIAN DEMOGRAPHY

                        24-28 June, 2019

Lecturers: Adrian Raftery and Hana Ševcíková
University of Washington, Seattle, USA

Further details are provided below.

Guido Consonni and Fabrizio Ruggeri
ABS19 Directors
Raffaele Argiento
ABS19 Executive Director

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        Applied Bayesian Statistics School

  BAYESIAN DEMOGRAPHY

         Villa del Grumello, Como, Italy

         24-28 June, 2019

Lecturers:
 
- Adrian Raftery, the Boeing International Professor of Statistics and Sociology
- Hana Ševcíková, Senior Research Scientist
 
Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, USA

The School webpage is

http://web.mi.imati.cnr.it/conferences/abs19/index.html

Registration is now open. Please note that the conference room allows only for a very limited number of participants.

COURSE OUTLINE

Population projections have until recently usually been done deterministically. Recently, the United Nation Population Division adopted a probabilistic approach to project fertility, mortality and population for all countries. In this approach, the total fertility rate and female and male life expectancy at birth are projected using Bayesian hierarchical models estimated via Markov Chain Monte Carlo. They are then combined with a cohort component model, which yields probabilistic projection for any quantity of interest. The methodology is implemented in a suite of R packages, which has been used by the UN analysts to produce the most recent revision of the World Population Prospects.
This course will teach the theory and practice of Bayesian probabilistic projections. Ideas of the Bayesian hierarchical modeling for the three main components of population change, fertility, mortality and migration, will be explained. In hands-on exercises, students will become familiar with the functionality of the R packages.

PRACTICAL INFORMATION

The school will replicate the successful format of the previous years, and will feature lectures and practical sessions, as well as participants' talks. It will start on Monday after lunch and end on Friday before lunch; Wednesday afternoon is free.

Accommodation is available either at the Villa guesthouse or in downtown hotels (info will appear soon on the website). Como can be easily reached by train from Milan and its airports. More details are available on the website.