Dear all,

This is a reminder for the: STAR Online Seminars.

The seminar will be held Friday 13. November from 11:00-12:00 . You will recieve the link for the Zoom room by registering for the seminar with the link provided at the end of this mail. The lecture will last for 45 minutes + questions.

This week's speaker is Rama Cont - University of Oxford, with the seminar: Excursion risk

Abstract: A broad class of dynamic trading strategies may be characterized in terms of excursions of the market price of a portfolio away from a reference level. We propose a mathematical framework for the risk analysis of such strategies, based on a description in terms of price excursions, first in a pathwise setting, without probabilistic assumptions, then in a probabilistic setting, when the price is modelled as a Markov process. We introduce the notion of δ-excursion, defined as a path which deviates by δ from a reference level before returning to this level. We show that every continuous path has a unique decomposition into such δ-excursions, which turn out to be useful for the scenario analysis of dynamic trading strategies, leading to simple expressions for the number of trades, realized profit, maximum loss and drawdown. When the underlying asset follows a Markov process, we combine these results with Ito's excursion theory to obtain a tractable decomposition of the process as a concatenation of independent δ-excursions, whose distribution is described in terms of Ito's excursion measure. We provide analytical results for linear diffusions and give new examples of stochastic processes for flexible and tractable modeling of excursions. Finally, we describe a non-parametric scenario simulation method for generating paths whose excursions match those observed in a data set. This is joint work with: Anna Ananova and RenYuan Xu.

After the end of the seminar, you are invited to bring a cup of coffee/tea and have a chat in our Coffee in the Stars here you will have the chance to talk and interact with the other persons that attended the seminar, and have a digital "coffee break".

We are looking forward to see you, online!

Best regards,

We are looking forward to see you, online!

Best regards,

Michele Giordano

Doctoral research fellow

Department of Mathematics

University of Oslo, Norway

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Link for the seminar webpage: https://www.mn.uio.no/math/english/research/projects/storm/events/seminars/star-online-seminars/index.html