Venerdi 19 dicembre, alle ore 11, presso la sede
di Milano dell'IMATI
Via Bassini 15, nella Sala Pentagonale al secondo piano,
Ting Wang (Department of Mathematics and Statistics,
University of Otago, New Zealand)
presentera' un seminario dal titolo
Modelling of seismic activity using Markov-modulated Hawkes
process and
its extensions.
Abstract:
Earthquakes are processes in which the internal
workings are only observed indirectly, although
the final effects are all too observable! Hidden Markov models
(HMMs, a general statistical
framework for modelling partially observed systems) are an
intuitively attractive idea for analysing
seismicity.
I will introduce the Markov-modulated Hawkes process that we
developed for investigating long-term
patterns in seismicity rate. The catalogue of the Landers
earthquake sequence, which
included multiple mainshocks, was used as a case study. I will
show how this model captures the
cyclic parent-generating-offspring feature of the temporal
behaviour of earthquakes. I will also
discuss our current work on extending this temporal model by
including spatial variation of the
seismic activity and the earthquake magnitude. Our aim is to
categorize spatiotemporal seismic
hazards holistically, using the entire earthquake record in a
selected region to identify patterns
correlated with subsequent large earthquakes, rather than the
traditional way of hunting for
individual foreshocks.
Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.
Cordiali saluti,
Antonella.
--
Dott. Antonella Bodini
CNR-Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche
Via Bassini 15, 20133 Milano (Italy)
tel +39 02 23699524
fax +39 02 23699538
http://www.mi.imati.cnr.it/~anto/