Dear Colleagues,

with apologies for cross-posting, we would like to
draw your attention to the session

NP1.1 ``Statistical mechanics approaches to earth
system dynamics: invariant measures, response, and
large deviations''

to be held as part of the upcoming General Assembly of
the European Geosciences Union (Vienna, Austria, 3rd to
8th of April 2022).

A short description of the session can be found here

https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU22/session/42646

or at the end of this email. We would be very happy if
you could consider submitting an abstract to this
session.

IMPORTANT: deadline for abstract submission is 12 January 2022, 13:00 CET

For further info on abstract submission see here:

https://egu22.eu/abstracts_and_programme/how_to_submit_an_abstract.html

EGU2022 will be a hybrid conference – more information at

https://egu22.eu/about/provisional_meeting_format.html

Best wishes,

Jochen Broecker (Convener),
Vera Melinda Galfi,
Giulia Carigi,
Georgios Margazoglou,
Jeroen Wouters (Co-Conveners)

SESSION DESCRIPTION:

The equations governing the dynamics of the atmosphere
and the ocean provide us with an enormously powerful
tool to understand and predict the future evolution of
these dynamics. By integrating these equations forward
in time from a given initial condition, we are able to
produce highly realistic trajectories of the earth
system's temporal evolution.

A number of scientific questions however consider the
statistical behaviour of solution ensembles, with the
heterogeneity coming from different (yet ``typical'')
initial conditions or random external forces. Examples
are questions related to the global mean temperature or
rainfall, the frequency of extreme events, but also
questions regarding the average predictability of the
system or its susceptibility to external perturbations.

Statistical mechanics provides a framework in which
such questions can be addressed. Rather than
considering individual solutions, randomness and
uncertainty are introduced to describe the ensemble of
solutions in a probabilistic manner.

This statistical mechanics approach to earth system
dynamics will be the theme of this session.
Contributions will cover a broad range of aspects from
theory to applications and from mathematics to climate
science.

Topics include:

* Novel mathematical techniques from the theory of
stochastic processes and PDE's

* Examples of ideas and methods from statistical
mechanics being applied to the earth system (including,
but not limited to, linear response, model reduction,
large deviations and related algorithms)

* Potential future applications, for instance in
downscaling, data assimilation and parametrisations

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Giulia Carigi,

Postdoctoral Research Fellow

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

University of Reading, UK