Title: Beyond warming: how greenhouse gases emissions can amplify polar temperature fluctuations

Abstract: Climate change affects not only average temperatures but also their variability. Using a simple energy-balance model for the Arctic, we explain why temperature fluctuations can increase as radiative forcing (linked to CO_2) rises. Fast random variations in incoming solar energy represent weather, while temperature evolves more slowly. Because sea ice makes sunlight absorption strongly temperature-dependent, warming and ice loss make the system more sensitive to the same weather fluctuations. This yields a stochastic temperature equation and the key message: in the ice-affected regime, stronger forcing amplifies long-term temperature variance. This is a joint work with F. Flandoli and M. Lenzi.