Si avvisa che il giorno mercoledì 2 maggio alle ore 14.30 presso l’Università di Milano- Bicocca (via degli Arcimboldi 8 - edificio U7, quarto piano- aula seminari 4026) si terrà il seguente seminario:
Speaker: Luca Gonzato (Dismeq, Università di Milano-Bicocca)
Titolo: “ Filtering and Calibrating a Self-Exciting Jump Diffusion Model for Oil Price by a Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method ”
Abstract: In this paper we propose a self-exciting jump diffusion model for oil price dynamics based on a Hawkes-type process. In particular, the jump intensity is stochastic and path dependent; so a jump will increase the probability of observing a new jump and this feature of the model aims at explaining the jumps clustering effect. Our model is very similar to that proposed by Hainaut & Moraux (2017) for equity market, although we assume the jump size normally distributed. Moreover, our filtering and calibration method relies on a different procedure. Indeed, we filter the latent jump intensity and estimate the model parameters according to a Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo method proposed by Andrieu, Doucet & Holenstein (2010), which is well suited for nonlinear non-Gaussian dynamical models. Finally, we provide numerical simulations in order to test our approach. Joint work with Carlo Sgarra.
Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.
Un saluto e a presto,
Emanuela
************************************************** Emanuela Rosazza Gianin Dipartimento di Statistica e Metodi Quantitativi Università di Milano-Bicocca Edificio U7 – 4° Piano Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8 20126 Milano
Tel. 02 64483208 Fax. 02 64483105 e-mail: emanuela.rosazza1@unimib.it
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