BAYESIAN NONPARAMETRIC MODELLING OF PHENOLOGY USING CAPTURE-RECAPTURE DATA.

 
Phenological shifts, that is changes in the timing of cyclic and seasonal phenomena, have been observed for a number of wildlife species in recent years. These shifts are often attributed to the warming climate and their effect on population sizes is a matter of great concern. In this talk, I show how Bayesian nonparametrics can be employed when modelling capture-recapture data to obtain smooth and ecologically meaningful estimates of arrival and departure densities at one or more sites and as functions of environmental covariates or to account for individual phenological heterogeneity.