Si ricorda che venerdi' 19 dicembre alle ore 11
presso la sede di Milano dell'IMATI,
via Bassini 15, nella sala pentagonale al secondo piano, Ting WANG
(University of Otago, New Zealand)
terra' il seminario
Modelling of seismic activity using
Markov-modulated Hawkes process and its extensions
Earthquakes are processes in which the internal
workings are only observed indirectly, although the final effects
are all too observable! Hidden Markov models (HMMs, a general
statistical framework for modelling partially observed systems)
are an intuitively attractive idea for analysing seismicity.
I will introduce the Markov-modulated Hawkes process that we
developed for investigating long-term patterns in seismicity rate.
The catalogue of the Landers earthquake sequence, which included
multiple mainshocks, was used as a case study. I will show how
this model captures the cyclic parent-generating-offspring feature
of the temporal behaviour of earthquakes. I will also discuss our
current work on extending this temporal model by including spatial
variation of the seismic activity and the earthquake magnitude.
Our aim is to categorize spatiotemporal seismic hazards
holistically, using the entire earthquake record in a selected
region to identify patterns correlated with subsequent large
earthquakes, rather than the traditional way of hunting for
individual foreshocks.
Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.
--
Dott. Antonella Bodini
CNR-Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche
Via Bassini 15, 20133 Milano (Italy)
tel +39 02 23699524
fax +39 02 23699538
http://www.mi.imati.cnr.it/~anto/