********************************************************************* SEMINARI DI PROBABILITA' E STATISTICA MATEMATICA DIPARTIMENTO DI MATEMATICA "G. PEANO" UNIVERSITA' DEGLI STUDI DI TORINO *********************************************************************
mercoledì 15 Marzo 2017 alle ore 11:30 in Aula C presso il Dipartimento di Matematica "G. Peano" dell'Università degli Studi di Torino, Via Carlo Alberto 10,
Il Prof. CARLO SGARRA (Politecnico di Milano)
terrà un seminario dal titolo
A BRANCHING PROCESS-BASED APPROACH TO POWER MARKETS
(The talk will be mainly based on a joint paper with Y. Jiao, C. Ma and S. Scotti).
Abstract: Energy markets, and in particular, electricity markets, exhibit very peculiar features. The historical series of both futures and spot prices include seasonality, mean-reversion, spikes and small fluctuations. Very often a stochastic volatility dynamics is postulated in order to explain their high degree of variability. After the pioneering paper by Schwartz, where an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics is assumed to describe the spot price behavior, several different approaches have been investigated in order to describe the price evolution. High frequency trading, on the other hand, introduced some new features in commodity prices dynamics: in a recent paper by V. Filimonov, D. Bicchetti, N. Maystre and D. Sornette evidence is shown of endogeneity and structural regime shift, and in order to quantify this level the branching ratio is adopted as a measure of this endogenous impact and a Hawkes processes dynamics is assumed as a reasonable modelling framework taking into account the self-exciting properties. The purpose of the present investigation is to propose a new modeling framework including all the above mentioned features, still keeping a high level of tractability. The model considered allows to obtain the most common derivatives prices in closed or semi-closed form. Here with semi-closed we mean that the Laplace transform of the derivative price admits an explicit expression. The models we are going to introduce can describe the prices dynamics in two different forms, that can be proved to be equivalent: the first is a representation based on random fields, the second is based on Continuous Branching Processes with Immigration (CBI in the following).
Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.
-- Federico Polito
Department of Mathematics University of Torino Via Carlo Alberto, 10 10123, Torino, Italy Email: federico.polito@unito.it Tel: +39 011 6702862 Web: www.fpolito.eu