SEMINARS IN STATISTICS @ COLLEGIO CARLO ALBERTO <https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.carloalberto.org/events/category/seminars/seminars-in-statistics/page/2/?tribe-bar-date%3D2019-09-01&source=gmail-imap&ust=1732719071000000&usg=AOvVaw1_VfRy4qDP_HHioNc49JU_> Martedì 26/05/2026, presso il Collegio Carlo Alberto, in Piazza Arbarello 8, Torino, si terrà il seguente seminario: ------------------------------------------------ 12.00-13.00 Speaker: Yuqiong WANG (UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN) Title: Optimal match lengths in knock-out tournaments Abstract: Later-stage matches in sports tournaments, especially semifinals and finals, are often treated as more important and therefore played longer. We ask whether this intuition can be justified from a sequential testing viewpoint. We study a knock-out tournament with $2^n$ players in which each match is modeled by a Brownian motion with an unobservable drift, representing the players' relative abilities. The tournament designer chooses how long each match should be played so that the strongest player wins the tournament with a prescribed probability. We analyze two design regimes: $(i)$ deterministic designs, where all match lengths are fixed in advance, and $(ii)$ sequential designs, where match duration can adapt to the observed paths. Our main structural result shows that in both regimes, the optimal schedule makes the late-round matches longer than early-round matches, providing a formal statistical justification for common tournament practice. We also quantify the efficiency gain from allowing sequential decisions: sequential testing saves at least $36\%$ and at most $75\%$ on average. Moreover, the relative advantage of sequential methods grows as one requires higher precision. ------------------------------------------------ Sarà possibile seguire il seminario anche in streaming: chiunque volesse collegarsi è pregato di inviare un’email a matteo.giordano@unito.it <mailto:matteo.giordano@unito.it> Il webinar è organizzato dalla "de Castro" Statistics Initiative (www.carloalberto.org/stats <http://www.carloalberto.org/stats>) in collaborazione con il Collegio Carlo Alberto. Cordiali saluti, Matteo Giordano Assistant Professor (RTDA) Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (ESOMAS) www.matteogiordano.weebly.com <https://matteogiordano.weebly.com/>