On behalf of the Scientific Committee of the de Finetti Risk Seminars, we are glad to invite you to participate at the following Lecture

Deciding with Judgment

Simone Manganelli European Central Bank

Abstract: Non sample information is hidden in frequentist statistics in the choice of the hypothesis to be tested and of the confidence level. Explicit treatment of these elements provides the connection between Bayesian and frequentist statistics. A frequentist decision maker starts from a judgmental decision and moves to the closest boundary of the confidence interval of the first order conditions, for a given loss function. This statistical decision rule does not perform worse than the judgmental decision with a probability equal to the confidence level. For any given prior, there is a mapping from the sample realization to the confidence level which makes Bayesian and frequentist decision rules equivalent. Frequentist decision rules can also be interpreted as decisions under ambiguity.

LOCATION: The seminar will be held on Wednesday, February 28, at 18.00 at room 3-E4-SR03, Bocconi University, Via Rontgen 1, 3rd floor, Milano. A refreshment will be offered at 17.30.

Scientific Committee:

Prof. Simone Cerreia-Voglio (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Marco Frittelli (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) Prof. Fabio Maccheroni (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Massimo Marinacci (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Emanuela Rosazza Gianin (Univ. Milano-Bicocca) Dott. Marco Maggis (Univ. degli Studi di Milano)

******************************************************************************************* Emanuela Rosazza Gianin Dipartimento di Statistica e Metodi Quantitativi Università di Milano-Bicocca Edificio U7 – 4° Piano Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8 20126 Milano

Tel. 02 64483208 Fax. 02 64483105 e-mail: emanuela.rosazza1@unimib.it

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