Dear all, On Thursday 29th October, at 12:00 in room A506b, the Department of AI, Data and Decision Sciences of Luiss University of Rome will host a seminar by Antonio Lijoi (Bocconi University) Title: “Hierarchical random measures for competing risks: from dependence to prediction” Abstract: Hierarchical nonparametric priors provide a natural framework for the Bayesian modeling of heterogeneous, yet related, populations. Under partial exchangeability, population-specific random measures are conditionally independent given a common random measure, allowing information to be shared while preserving heterogeneity. The same hierarchical idea can also be useful in a seemingly different setting, in which the observations themselves are exchangeable. In competing-risks problems, each observation consists of a survival time and an event type, and inference requires the joint modeling of cause-specific hazards. We construct a flexible prior for the transition probabilities of the associated multi-state model by transforming a vector of hierarchical completely random measures. The common level of the hierarchy induces dependence and information sharing across causes. The resulting latent partition structure and a representation based on marked random measures lead to tractable marginal, posterior, and predictive distributions. Besides providing estimates of the survival and cause-specific cumulative incidence functions, the framework yields a novel predictive quantity: the prediction curve. This curve gives, conditionally on the observed data, the probability that a future event is of a particular type as a function of its occurrence time. Applications to clinical data illustrate its interpretation and practical relevance. Hoping to meet you there! Best, Matteo Iacopini La presente e-mail proviene da Luiss Guido Carli e s'intende inviata per scopi lavorativi. Tutte le informazioni ivi contenute, compresi eventuali allegati, sono da ritenersi esclusivamente confidenziali e riservati secondo i termini del vigente D.Lgs. 196/2003 in materia di privacy e del Regolamento europeo 679/2016 - GDPR. È vietato qualsiasi ulteriore utilizzo non autorizzato. Qualora la stessa Le fosse pervenuta per errore, La preghiamo di eliminarla immediatamente e di darcene tempestiva comunicazione. Grazie. This e-mail message is sent by Luiss Guido Carli for business purposes. All informations contained therein, including any attachments, are for the sole use of the intended recipient and may contain confidential and privileged information pursuant to Legislative Decree 196/2003 and the European General Data Protection Regulation 679/2016 - GDPR -. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by soon reply this e-mail and destroy all copies of the original message. Thanks