Cari Colleghi, vi segnalo il seguente seminario della serie dei MOX COLLOQUIA: 05.03.26 ore 14:00 - Aula Consiglio, Edificio 14, Politecnico di Milano Speaker: Prof. Tilmann Gneiting, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Titolo: Assessing Monotone Dependence - with Applications to Weather Prediction Abstract: The assessment of monotone dependence between random variables $X$ and $Y$ is a classical problem in statistics and a gamut of application domains. Consequently, researchers have sought measures of association that are invariant under strictly increasing transformations of the margins, with the extant literature being splintered. Rank correlation coefficients, such as Spearman's rho and Kendall's tau, have been studied at great length in the statistical literature, mostly under the assumption that $X$ and $Y$ are continuous. In the case of a dichotomous outcome $Y$, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and the asymmetric area under the ROC curve (AUC) measure are used to assess monotone dependence of $Y$ on a predictor $X$. In this talk I demonstrate that the two thus far disconnected strands of literature can be unified and bridged, by developing common population level theory, common estimators, and common tests that apply to all types of linearly ordered outcomes. In a case study, we assess recent progress in artificial intelligence based weather prediction (AIWP) versus traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP). The talk is based on joint work with Eva-Maria Walz and Andreas Eberl. Il seminario sarà accessibile online: https://mox.polimi.it/mox-colloquia-seminars-list/mox-seminars/?id_evento=26... https://cassyni.com/events/UEGpAYwVEdDSxoqc3JkK57?0kaaw Per seguire il seminario in streaming, è necessario iscriversi (gratuitamente) sulla piattaforma Cassyni. Seguirà rinfresco presso il Dipartimento di Matematica. Cordiali saluti, Laura Sangalli —— Laura Maria Sangalli MOX - Dipartimento di Matematica Politecnico di Milano Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 20133 Milano - Italy (+39) 02 2399 4554 laura.sangalli@polimi.it https://sangalli.faculty.polimi.it