ANNUNCIO DI SEMINARIO

venerdì 13 giugno 2014, ore 14:30 Sala Bassini, Piano Rialzato CNR – IMATI, Via Bassini 15, Milano

RELATORE Dr ZHUANG Jiancang Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo

TITOLO Testing significance of earthquake precursors against earthquake clustering models instead of against complete randomness

ABSTRACT During the last 30 years, a number of algorithms have been developed that search for seismic anomalies in order to predict strong earthquakes. Examples of such algorithms are M8, RTP, RTL, PI, and LURR. In these algorithms, behaviour is usually deemed to be anomalous if seismicity rates change from the background activity, which is usually assumed stationary or, more strongly, a Poisson process. On the other hand, it is well known that seismicity is clustered and can be well described by the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Such anomalies detected in these conventional ways may be caused by earthquake clusters or improper declustering algorithms. This presentation illustrates, through examples, how to modify these algorithms for the testing of seismic anomalies against a clustering model (e.g., the ETAS model).