********************************************************************* WEBINAR DI PROBABILITÀ E STATISTICA MATEMATICA DIPARTIMENTO DI MATEMATICA "G. PEANO" UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI TORINO *********************************************************************

Martedì 23 Giugno 2020 alle ore 15:00 Il Prof. Isaac Meilijson (Tel Aviv University) terrà un seminario sulla piattaforma webex

Collegamento riunione: https://unito.webex.com/unito/j.php?MTID=m28a1e666a170497b27a0d1e4d8772ff2 Password:ParolaRiunione

Title:

Random time transformation analysis of Covid19 2020

Speaker:

Isaac Meilijson, Tel Aviv University

Abstract:

The SIR epidemiological equations model new affected and removed cases as roughly proportional to the current number of infected cases. The present report adopts an alternative that has been considered in the literature, in which the number of new affected cases is proportional to the α<1 power of the number of infected cases. After arguing that α=1 models exponential growth while α<1 models polynomial or linear growth, a simple method for parameter estimation in differential equations subject to noise, the random-time transformation RTT of Bassan, Meilijson, Marcus and Talpaz 1997, will be reviewed and applied to fit α and the other parameters in an attempt to settle the question as to the nature of Covid19. Joint work with Nitay Alon.

Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.