Dear all, a kind reminder that the first OWABI seminar www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi<http://www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi> is today, Thursday the 29th October at 11am UK time, when Chris Oates<https://oates.work/> (Newcastle University) will be talking about "Overcoming Model Misspecification in Bayesian Inference of Molecular Signalling Networks" with an abstract reported below. The talk will be streamed at the OWABI MS Team channel General | OWABI Seminar: One World Approximate Bayesian Inference Seminar | Microsoft Teams<https://teams.microsoft.com/l/team/19%3AdhZ_4e_XLNJzCXPAMzTvT6BZ5KShEETkd_wtTY52VI81%40thread.tacv2/conversations?groupId=9c061d11-f88c-4cee-938f-bf40e7393879&tenantId=09bacfbd-47ef-4465-9265-3546f2eaf6bc> at the following link Join: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/3744683199415937?p=eu2tG5Ukrf84zJvPmB Meeting ID: 374 468 319 941 593 7 Passcode: Km6Ws2Hx Speaker: Chris Oates<https://oates.work/> (Newcastle University) Title: Overcoming Model Misspecification in Bayesian Inference of Molecular Signalling Networks Abstract: Bayesian inference of molecular signalling networks usually relies on tractability of the marginal likelihood, enabling the set of possible networks to be efficiently explored. As such, linear models with independent errors and conjugate priors are routinely used. However, the dynamics of molecular signalling are nonlinear, and relevant confounders are often unobserved; failure to account for these complexities will almost certainly lead to over-confident inferences in the standard Bayesian framework. To confront this reality, we develop a post-Bayesian approach to inference of molecular signalling networks, guided by the principle that uncertainty should not vanish when the statistical model is misspecified, even in the infinite-data limit. Technically, we extend the predictively-oriented (PrO) posterior of McLatchie et al. (2025) to the setting of latent variable models, empirically investigating the properties of PrO posteriors in the challenging network inference context. This is joint work with Yinghan Li, Heishiro Kanagawa, Francesca Romana Crucinio, and Matthew A. Fisher. Keywords: model misspecification, post-Bayesian, predictively-oriented posteriors Reference: Y. Li, H. Kanagawa, F. R. Crucinio, M. A. Fisher, C.J. Oates. Overcoming Model Misspecification in Bayesian Inference of Molecular Signalling Networks. Preprint at ArXiv:2609.24590 https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.24590 Best, Massimiliano on the behalf of the OWABI Organisers ------ Dr. Massimiliano Tamborrino Reader (Associate Professor) and WIHEA Fellow Department of Statistics University of Warwick https://warwick.ac.uk/tamborrino