We are glad to announce that the 2019 Applied Bayesian Statistics Summer School (16th edition) will be held in the magnificent Villa del Grumello, Como (Italy) along the Lake Como shore. BAYESIAN DEMOGRAPHY 24-28 June, 2019 Lecturers: Adrian Raftery and Hana Ševcíková University of Washington, Seattle, USA Further details are provided below. Guido Consonni and Fabrizio Ruggeri ABS19 Directors Raffaele Argiento ABS19 Executive Director ---------------------------------------------------------------- ******************************* * ABS19 * ******************************* Applied Bayesian Statistics School BAYESIAN DEMOGRAPHY Villa del Grumello, Como, Italy 24-28 June, 2019 Lecturers: - Adrian Raftery, the Boeing International Professor of Statistics and Sociology - Hana Ševcíková, Senior Research Scientist Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, USA The School webpage is http://web.mi.imati.cnr.it/conferences/abs19/index.html Registration is now open. Please note that the conference room allows only for a very limited number of participants. COURSE OUTLINE Population projections have until recently usually been done deterministically. Recently, the United Nation Population Division adopted a probabilistic approach to project fertility, mortality and population for all countries. In this approach, the total fertility rate and female and male life expectancy at birth are projected using Bayesian hierarchical models estimated via Markov Chain Monte Carlo. They are then combined with a cohort component model, which yields probabilistic projection for any quantity of interest. The methodology is implemented in a suite of R packages, which has been used by the UN analysts to produce the most recent revision of the World Population Prospects. This course will teach the theory and practice of Bayesian probabilistic projections. Ideas of the Bayesian hierarchical modeling for the three main components of population change, fertility, mortality and migration, will be explained. In hands-on exercises, students will become familiar with the functionality of the R packages. PRACTICAL INFORMATION The school will replicate the successful format of the previous years, and will feature lectures and practical sessions, as well as participants' talks. It will start on Monday after lunch and end on Friday before lunch; Wednesday afternoon is free. Accommodation is available either at the Villa guesthouse or in downtown hotels (info will appear soon on the website). Como can be easily reached by train from Milan and its airports. More details are available on the website. Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore Largo Gemelli, 1 20123 Milano; ITALY Ph: +39 02 7234 3049 https://sites.google.com/site/consonnibayes/home [http://Static.unicatt.it/layout/img/layout/5x1000.gif] Destina il tuo 5 per mille all’Università Cattolica CF 02133120150 www.unicatt.it/5permille<http://www.unicatt.it/5permille/>