Si ricorda che venerdi' 19 dicembre alle ore 11 presso la sede di Milano dell'IMATI, via Bassini 15, nella sala pentagonale al secondo piano, Ting WANG (University of Otago, New Zealand) terra' il seminario

*Modelling of seismic activity using Markov-modulated Hawkes process and its extensions*

Earthquakes are processes in which the internal workings are only observed indirectly, although the final effects are all too observable! Hidden Markov models (HMMs, a general statistical framework for modelling partially observed systems) are an intuitively attractive idea for analysing seismicity. I will introduce the Markov-modulated Hawkes process that we developed for investigating long-term patterns in seismicity rate. The catalogue of the Landers earthquake sequence, which included multiple mainshocks, was used as a case study. I will show how this model captures the cyclic parent-generating-offspring feature of the temporal behaviour of earthquakes. I will also discuss our current work on extending this temporal model by including spatial variation of the seismic activity and the earthquake magnitude. Our aim is to categorize spatiotemporal seismic hazards holistically, using the entire earthquake record in a selected region to identify patterns correlated with subsequent large earthquakes, rather than the traditional way of hunting for individual foreshocks.

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