Si avvisa che il giorno mercoledì 2 maggio alle ore 14.30 presso
l’Università
di Milano- Bicocca (via degli Arcimboldi 8 - edificio U7, quarto piano-
aula
seminari 4026) si terrà il seguente seminario:
Speaker: Luca Gonzato (Dismeq, Università di Milano-Bicocca)
Titolo:
“ Filtering and Calibrating a Self-Exciting Jump Diffusion Model for Oil
Price by a Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method ”
Abstract:
In this paper we propose a self-exciting jump diffusion model for oil price
dynamics based on a Hawkes-type process. In particular, the jump intensity
is stochastic and path dependent; so a jump will increase the probability
of observing a new jump and this feature of the model aims at explaining
the jumps clustering effect. Our model is very similar to that proposed by
Hainaut & Moraux (2017) for equity market, although we assume the jump size
normally distributed. Moreover, our filtering and calibration method relies
on a different procedure. Indeed, we filter the latent jump intensity and
estimate the model parameters according to a Particle Markov Chain Monte
Carlo method proposed by Andrieu, Doucet & Holenstein (2010), which is well
suited for nonlinear non-Gaussian dynamical models. Finally, we provide
numerical simulations in order to test our approach. Joint work with Carlo
Sgarra.
Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.
Un saluto e a presto,
Emanuela
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Emanuela Rosazza Gianin
Dipartimento di Statistica e Metodi Quantitativi
Università di Milano-Bicocca
Edificio U7 – 4° Piano
Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8
20126 Milano
Tel. 02 64483208
Fax. 02 64483105
e-mail: emanuela.rosazza1(a)unimib.it
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