Random May 2021

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Fwd: [owps] OWPS: talks tomorrow
by Faggionato, Alessandra 05 May '21

05 May '21

Buongiorno giro l'annuncio del OWPS di domani. Saluti Alessandra ---------- Forwarded message --------- Da: One World Probability <ow.probability(a)gmail.com> Date: mer 5 mag 2021 alle ore 08:12 Subject: [owps] OWPS: talks tomorrow To: <owps(a)lists.bath.ac.uk> Dear All, we have two talks tomorrow. Remember that we start 14:00 UTC which is 16:00 CET! 14:00-15:00 UTC Christina Goldschmidt The stable graph: the scaling limit of critical random graphs with i.i.d. random degrees having power-law tails Abstract: Consider a graph with label set \{1,2, \ldots,n\} chosen uniformly at random from those such that vertex i has degree D_i, where D_1, D_2, \ldots, D_n are i.i.d. strictly positive random variables. The condition for criticality (i.e. the threshold for the emergence of a giant component) in this setting is E[D^2] = 2 E[D], and we assume additionally that P(D = k) \sim c k^{-(\alpha + 2)} as k tends to infinity, for some \alpha \in (1,2). In this situation, it turns out that the largest components have sizes on the order of n^{\alpha/(\alpha+1)}. Building on earlier work of Adrien Joseph, we show that the components have scaling limits which can be related to a forest of stable trees (à la Duquesne-Le Gall-Le Jan) via an absolute continuity relation. This gives a natural generalisation of the scaling limit for the Erd\H{o}s-Renyi random graph (obtained in collaboration with Louigi Addario-Berry and Nicolas Broutin a few years ago, extending results of Aldous), which we call the stable graph. This complements recent work on random graph scaling limits by various authors including Bhamidi, Broutin, Duquesne, van der Hofstad, van Leeuwaarden, Riordan, Sen, M. Wang and X. Wang. 15:00 - 16:00 UTC Bénédicte Haas Distributional properties of the stable graphs Abstract: In this talk we will investigate some distributional properties of the connected components of the stable graphs introduced by Christina in the previous talk. We recall that for $\alpha \in (1,2]$, the $\alpha$-stable graph arises as the universal scaling limit of critical random graphs with i.i.d. degrees having an $\alpha$-dependent power-law tail behavior. Consider a connected component of such a graph. Our aim will be: (1) to describe the distribution of its kernel and more generally of its discrete finite-dimensional marginals, (2) to explicit its distribution as a collection of $\alpha$-stable trees glued on the kernel, and (3) present a line-breaking construction, in the same spirit as Aldous’ line-breaking construction of the Brownian CRT. Based on a joint work with Christina Goldschmidt and Delphin Sénizergues. The Zoom link is on the OWPS webpage. It can also be accessed directly via Zoom-link: https://tum-conf.zoom.us/j/68722718449 <https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftum-conf.…> Meeting ID: 687 2271 8449 Passcode: 054920 We hope to see you tomorrow! Best wishes, Julien and Nina -- ************************************************* Prof. Alessandra Faggionato http://www1.mat.uniroma1.it/~faggionato/ Department of Mathematics University "La Sapienza" Piazzale Aldo Moro, 5 00185 - Rome Office 5, Phone (0039) 06 49913252 *************************************************

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International Conference in Venice - CALL FOR PAPERS
by Monica Billio 04 May '21

04 May '21

20th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE CREDIT 2021 *Compound Risk: Climate, Disaster, Finance, Pandemic * Venice, Italy 23 –24 September 2021 * * *GRETA Associati* (Venice, Italy), *Cattolica Assicurazioni* (Verona, Italy), *European Datawarehouse *(Frankfurt, Germany), *European Investment Bank* (Luxembourg), *European Investment Fund *(Luxembourg) and *Intesa Sanpaolo *(Milan, Italy) are co-sponsors of a Conference to be held in Venice on September 23-24, 2021. The Conference CREDIT 2021 will bring together academics, practitioners and PhD students working in various areas of financial and credit risk with the aim to create a unique opportunity for participants to discuss research progress and policy and industry-relevant insights as well as directions for future research. Credit 2021 is the *twentieth *in a series of events dedicated to various aspects of credit risk and organised under the auspices of the *Department of Economics* and *VERA - Venice centre in Economic and Risk Analytics for public policies - of the Ca’ Foscari University of Venice*, *ABI - Italian Banking Association*,***AIAF - Associazione Italiana per l'Analisi Finanziaria* and the *Joint Research Center, European Commission* (Ispra, Italy). The theme of this year’s conference is the relation between financial risk on the one hand and pandemic, climate and disaster risk, on the other hand, with particular attention to the possible compounding of different sources of risk. The past year, 2020, has been marked by the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic crisis, which has shown how fragile our economic systems can be when confronted with shocks that threaten public health and the closeness of the connections between economic and financial risks and public policy. Climate change is now widely recognized as a new source of financial risk which is relevant both at the level of households and individual institutions and the systemic level. In particular, the many central banks and financial institutions that have joined the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) have issued recommendations on how to integrate climate considerations into risk management strategies and practices. However, risks such as pandemics and climate change do not occur in isolation but can also compound, as has already been seen in several countries. The compounding of risk, which is currently poorly understood, increases the complexity of risk assessment and risk management, and it has implications for socio-economic development, as well as for public debt sustainability. In the EU, these aspects have major implications for efforts to increase the resilience of the economy to future shocks and to “build back better”, and requires the alignment of COVID-19 recovery policies, such as those supported by the NextGenerationEU, and the EU Green Deal and the Paris Agreement targets. The organizers of CREDIT 2021 encourage submissions on a range of topics of relevance to this year’s theme including: finance and COVID-19; finance and climate risks; finance and compound COVID-19 and climate risks. In particular, submissions are welcome in the following areas: • INVESTMENTS: Sustainable Finance, Disaster risk finance; Finance 4 good; public finance; blended finance. • POLICIES: Climate Policies, European Green New Deal; Next Generation EU; Recovery Plan. • INFORMATION: Data gaps; modelling challenges; risk transmission channels; uncertainty; complexity. The final program will include both submitted and invited papers. Acceptances received so far from invited speakers include *Vittoria Colizza *(INSERM, France), *Robert Engle *(Stern Business School, New York University) and *Roberto Rigobon* (MIT Sloan School of Management) who will deliver keynotes, respectively on finance and on epidemics. The Conference will also feature panel discussions on researchers', practitioners' and policy makers’ views of the major issues at stake. The SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE for the Conference consists of: • * Stefano Battiston *(Ca’ Foscari University of Venice & University of Zurich, Programme Chair) • * Monica Billio *(Ca’ Foscari University of Venice & GRETA) • * Francesca Campolongo *(Joint Research Center, European Commission) • *Vittoria Colizza* (INSERM, France) • * Helmut Kraemer-Eis* (European Investment Fund) • * Jan Pieter Krahnen* (Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE & Goethe University, Frankfurt) • *Irene Monasterolo *(Vienna University of Economics and Business) • *Steven Ongena* (University of Zurich, Swiss Finance Institute, KU Leuven & CEPR) • *Roberto Rigobon* (MIT Sloan School of Management) • *Stephen Schaefer* (London Business School) CALL FOR PAPERS Those wishing to present a paper at the Conference should submit by *May 31, 2021 *to the address given below (preferably in electronic format). Please indicate to whom correspondence should be addressed. Decisions regarding acceptance will be made by *June 30, 2021*. The final version of accepted papers must be received by August 31, 2021. Please send papers to: GRETA Associati, San Polo, 2605 - 30125 Venice, ITALY Phone : +39 041 5238178 - e-mail: credit(a)greta.it <mailto:credit@greta.it> More detailed information available on the Conference website: https://www.greta.it/index.php/it/credit-2021 <https://www.greta.it/index.php/it/credit-2021>

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Open PhD position in Mathematics at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
by Alessandro Zocca 04 May '21

04 May '21

Dear colleagues, There is an open fully-funded 4-year PhD position under my supervision at the Department of Mathematics of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. The PhD project will focus on learning and stochastic optimization for power networks, which are increasingly affected by uncertainty due to a quickly growing adoption of renewable energy sources. The project aims at using and expanding mathematical knowledge to better understand and optimize these complex networks, especially in combination with the large amount of newly-available data. The PhD candidate will use modern methods in (stochastic) optimization, applied probability, operations research, and learning theory to develop both new theory and algorithms. The preferred starting date is September 1, 2021. The candidates are expected to have a Master's degree in Mathematics or Operations Research, and a solid background in stochastics and optimization. For more information (including eligibility criteria, salary, and employment conditions) see https://workingat.vu.nl/ad/phd-position-on-learning-and-stochastic-optimiza…. Please apply online at the same link, the deadline is June 1, 2021, but early applications are encouraged. If you have any further questions regarding this vacancy, feel free to reach out to me by email at a.zocca(a)vu.nl. Please feel free to advertise this position further and bring it to the attention of potentially interested candidates. Thank you in advance. Best wishes, Alessandro ================================= Alessandro Zocca (he/his) Assistant Professor Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Department of Mathematics https://sites.google.com/site/zoccaale/

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(PMS)^2 online talk: Guangqu Zheng, Monday May 10 at 17:30
by Maurizia Rossi 03 May '21

03 May '21

Dear colleagues, We are happy to announce the following online talk: Speaker: *Guangqu Zheng* (University of Kansas) Title: *Malliavin derivatives of hyperbolic Anderson model with applications to its absolute continuity and spatial averages.* Date and time: *Monday May 10, 17:30-18:30 (Rome time zone)* Abstract: see below. Zoom link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83843864962?pwd=NlNadHhIRkdzYUErZWJpbTNJaytDUT09 Meeting ID: 838 4386 4962 Passcode: 5gVVXb This talk is the second of the *(PMS)^2: Pavia-Milano Seminar series on Probability and Mathematical Statistics* organized jointly by the universities Milano-Bicocca, Pavia, Milano-Politecnico and Milano-Statale. Participation is free and welcome! (though limited to 100 participants for technical reasons) Best regards The organizers (Mario Maurelli, Carlo Orrieri, Maurizia Rossi, Margherita Zanella) *Abstract:* In this talk, we present recent work on the hyperbolic Anderson model driven by a space-time colored Gaussian homogeneous noise with spatial dimension one and two. Under mild assumptions, we provide Lp-estimates of the iterated Malliavin derivatives of the solution in terms of the fundamental solution of the wave solution. We present two applications: (1) We present quantitative central limit theorems for spatial averages of the solution to the hyperbolic Anderson model, where the rates of convergence are described by the total variation distance. These quantitative results have been elusive so far due to the temporal correlation of the noise blocking us from using the Itô calculus. (2) We establish the absolute continuity of the law for the hyperbolic Anderson model. The Lp-estimates of Malliavin derivatives are crucial ingredients to verify a local version of Bouleau-Hirsch criterion for absolute continuity. Our approach substantially simplifies the arguments for the one-dimensional case, which has been studied in the recent work by Balan, Quer-Sardanyons and Song (2019). This talk is based on the joint work (arXiv:2101.10957) with *R. Balan*, *D. Nualart* and *L. Quer-Sardanyons* (2021). - - - Maurizia Rossi Dipartimento di Matematica e Applicazioni Università di Milano-Bicocca

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Seminar Antonio Linero @Bocconi - May 6th
by Giacomo Zanella 03 May '21

03 May '21

We announce the following DEC Statistics webinar at Bocconi: Date: Thursday, May 6, h17:00 (Italy time) Speaker: Antonio Linero (UT Austin) Title: Bayesian Decision Tree Ensembling Strategies for Nonparametric Problems Abstract: In this talk we will make the case for using Bayesian decision tree ensembles, such as Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), for addressing some fully-nonparametric problems. We present models for density regression and survival analysis, and argue that our approaches are both easier to use and more effective than more standard Bayesian nonparametric solutions (such as those based on mixture models). On the applied side, we show how to use our models to extract interesting features across several datasets. On the theoretical side, we also show that our models attain minimax-optimal rates of convergence of the posterior in high-dimensional settings. Throughout the talk, we will emphasize the flexibility and ease-of-use of our approach: all simulation and real data analyses attain excellent results using heuristically chosen "default" priors, and it is quite straight-forward for researchers (both in-principle and in-practice) to embed our ensembles in larger models. The webinar will be on zoom at: https://zoom.us/j/95265599865?pwd=NlEwVWFjNktjNkx5VjZFZmFLVGh0UT09 Meeting ID: 952 6559 9865 Passcode: 634366 Kind regards, Giacomo Zanella

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