ANNUNCIO DI SEMINARIO
venerdì 13 giugno 2014, ore 14:30
Sala Bassini (piano terra)
CNR – IMATI, Via Bassini 15, Milano
RELATORE
Dr ZHUANG Jiancang
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo
TITOLO
Testing significance of earthquake precursors against earthquake
clustering models instead of against complete randomness
ABSTRACT
During the last 30 years, a number of algorithms have been developed
that search for seismic anomalies in order to predict strong earthquakes.
Examples of such algorithms are M8, RTP, RTL, PI, and LURR.
In these algorithms, behaviour is usually deemed to be anomalous if
seismicity rates change from the background activity, which is usually
assumed stationary or, more strongly, a Poisson process. On the other hand,
it is well known that seismicity is clustered and can be well described
by the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Such anomalies
detected in these conventional ways may be caused by earthquake clusters
or improper declustering algorithms. This presentation illustrates, through
examples, how to modify these algorithms for the testing of seismic anomalies
against a clustering model (e.g., the ETAS model).
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Elisa Varini
CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
IMATI - Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche
via Bassini 15 - 20133 Milano (Italy)
Tel +39 02 23699 527
Fax +39 02 23699 538
Email elisa(a)mi.imati.cnr.it
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