Il giorno Lunedì 12 Giugno alle ore 16.00, presso la Aula Seminari del DISMEQ al IV piano dell'edificio U7, il Dr. Andreas Tsanakas della Cass Business School, City University London terrà un seminario su
Capital allocation for portfolios with non-linear risk aggregation (joint with Tim Boonen and Mario Wuethrich)
Abstract: Existing risk capital allocation methods, such as the Euler rule, work under the explicit assumption that portfolios are formed as linear combinations of random loss/profit variables, with the firm being able to choose the portfolio weights. This assumption is unrealistic in an insurance context, where arbitrary scaling of risks is generally not possible. Here, we model risks as being partially generated by L'evy processes, capturing the non-linear aggregation of risk. The model leads to non-homogeneous fuzzy games, for which the Euler rule is not applicable. For such games, we seek capital allocations that are in the core, that is, do not provide incentives for splitting portfolios. We show that the Euler rule of an auxiliary linearised fuzzy game (non-uniquely) satisfies the core property and, thus, provides a plausible and easily implemented capital allocation. In contrast, the Aumann-Shapley allocation does not generally belong to the core. For the non-homogeneous fuzzy games studied, Tasche's (1999) criterion of suitability for performance measurement is adapted and it is shown that the proposed allocation method gives appropriate signals for improving the portfolio underwriting profit.
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