Random April 2022

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PhD course on Rough Paths at Rome Tor Vergata
by Lucia Caramellino 19 Apr '22

19 Apr '22

Dear All, during May, prof. Vlad Bally (Université Gustave Eiffel) will be Visiting Professor at the University of Rome "Tor Vergata". During his stay, he will give a PhD course entitled Introduction to rough paths. Information about the course - program, references, schedule etc. - can be found at http://www.mat.uniroma2.it/~caramell/roughpaths2022.htm <http://www.mat.uniroma2.it/~caramell/roughpaths2022.htm> The course will be held in blended form (in presence and online) from May 4th to May 26th. The lectures will be streamed via Microsoft Teams. Please write me an email if you are interested in being included in the Teams classroom of the course or in receiving the link to follow the lessons. Best regards, Lucia +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Lucia Caramellino Dipartimento di Matematica Università di Roma “Tor Vergata” Web: http://www.mat.uniroma2.it/~caramell

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Seminario Venerdì 22 - Seonwoo Kim (Seoul National University)
by Gianmarco Bet 19 Apr '22

19 Apr '22

Gentili colleghe e colleghi, Vi segnalo con piacere il seguente seminario che si terrà Venerdì 22 Aprile dalle 9:30 alle 10:30 in modalità mista. Location: Aula 215, Plesso Morgagni, Viale Giovan Battista Morgagni 40, 50134 Firenze Link alla videochiamata: https://meet.google.com/rps-uiyj-bhj <https://meet.google.com/rps-uiyj-bhj> Speaker: Seonwoo Kim (Seoul National University) Title: Metastability of Ising/Potts models on lattices in the low-temperature regime Abstract: In this talk, I will discuss metastability of the Ising/Potts model with zero external field in two or three dimensions. Metastable transitions in the case of zero field occur along a large saddle plateau, which can be divided into bulk and edge parts. Transitions on the bulk part are one-dimensional and thus easy to analyze, whereas transitions on the edge part are much more complex. In two dimension, I will characterize them in a very precise manner. On the other hand in three dimension, it is impossible to find such a precise characterization and thus I present an alternative abstract method to analyze the metastable behavior. This talk is based on a joint work with Insuk Seo at Seoul National University. Cordiali saluti, Gianmarco Bet ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Gianmarco Bet (he/him) Junior researcher https://gianmarco.bet Phone: (+39) 055 2751491 Department of Mathematics and Informatics "U. Dini" University of Florence Viale Morgagni, 65 50134 Firenze, Italy Office 64 ----------------------------------------------------------------------

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Scientific ASA 2022 conference on Data-Driven Decision Making
by Marta Nai Ruscone 15 Apr '22

15 Apr '22

On behalf of Enrico Di Bella (University of Genoa). Apologies for cross-posting.... CALL FOR PAPERS Association for Applied Statistics ASA 2022: “Data Driven Policy Making” Genoa, Italy, September 12-14, 2022 https://asa2022.unige.it/ <https://asa2022.unige.it/> regularly updated with news Dear Colleagues, I am pleased to announce the next ASA 2022 Conference (Association for Applied Statistics) “Data Driven Policy Making” that will take place from September 12th to 14th, 2022, hosted by the University of Genoa <https://asa2022.unige.it/node/4>, Genoa, Italy. Submit your contribution through EasyChair: https://easychair.org/my/conference?conf=asa2022 <https://easychair.org/my/conference?conf=asa2022> Instruction for the authors available at: https://asa2022.unige.it/node/6 <https://asa2022.unige.it/node/6> I am pleased to take this opportunity to wish you and your beloved ones Happy Easter holidays. Best regards, Marta Nai Ruscone (Local Organising Commitee) ———————————————————————————————— Important Dates ———————————————————————————————— Abstract submission deadline (max 300 words): April 30, 2022 Early registration deadline: June 31, 2022 Short paper submission (with ISBN): July 15, 2022 ———————————————————————————————— For more information, please feel free to contact asa2022(a)unige.it <mailto:asa2022@unige.it> or visit the conference website https://asa2022.unige.it/ <https://asa2022.unige.it/>. ———————————————————————————————— *** --- *** <> Marta Nai Ruscone Department of Economics - DIEC University of Genova. Via Vivaldi, 5. 16126 Genova (GE). Italy

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Seminar in Statistics - JOHANNES SCHMIDT-HIEBER
by Pierpaolo De Blasi 15 Apr '22

15 Apr '22

SEMINARS IN STATISTICS @ COLLEGIO CARLO ALBERTO <https://www.carloalberto.org/events/category/seminars/seminars-in-statistic…> Venerdi 22 Aprile 2022, alle ore 12.00, presso il Collegio Carlo Alberto, in Piazza Arbarello 8, Torino, si terrà il seguente seminario: ------------------------------------------------ Speaker: *Johannes Schmidt-Hieber* (University of Twente) Title: *A theoretical comparison of deep learning and Bayes with deep Gaussian process priors* Abstract: Deep neural networks have received a lot of attention recently and considerable progress has been made to build an underlying mathematical foundation. In a first part of the talk, we summarize some statistical convergence results. Deep Gaussian process priors can be viewed as continuous analogues of Bayesian neural networks and this raises the question whether there is a closer link with deep learning. In the second part of the talk, we show that the posterior for a suitable deep Gaussian process prior can achieve fast posterior contraction rates and discuss the connection with deep learning. This is joint work with Gianluca Finocchio. ------------------------------------------------ In ottemperanza alle norme anti Covid, per partecipare in presenza è necessario prenotarsi tramite il seguente form online: https://forms.gle/wxwecLUnpZ2GEsWh9 Sarà possibile seguire il seminario anche in streaming: Join Zoom Meeting <https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83612787995?pwd=SE1CR2ZGdmxxZmNWUmx2WS9XNXdtdz09> Meeting ID: 836 1278 7995 Passcode: 612986 Il seminario è organizzato dalla "de Castro" Statistics Initiative www.carloalberto.org/stats Cordiali saluti, Pierpaolo De Blasi -- Pierpaolo De Blasi University of Torino & Collegio Carlo Alberto carloalberto.org/pdeblasi <https://sites.google.com/a/carloalberto.org/pdeblasi/>

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Seminario di Probabilità
by Paolo Dai Pra 15 Apr '22

15 Apr '22

Cari colleghi, vi invito al seguente seminario. Date: 20 Aprile 2022, 14:30 Venue: Ca’ Vignal 2, Università di Verona, Aula G Speaker: Luisa Andreis, Università di Firenze Title: An introduction to phase transitions in coagulation processes and random graphs Abstract: Sparse inhomogeneous random graphs are a natural generalization of the well-known Erdos Renyi random graph, where vertices are characterized by a type and edges are independent but distributed according to the type of the vertices that they are connecting. These graphs undergo a phase transition in terms of the emergence of a giant component exactly as the classical Erd ̋os Renyi model. In this talk we will introduce an alternative approach, via large deviations, to prove this phase transition. This allows a comparison with the gelation phase transition that characterizes coagulation processes and the phase transition of condensation type emerging in several systems of interacting components. Paolo Dai Pra Paolo Dai Pra Dipartimento di Informatica Università degli Studi di Verona Strada Le Grazie 15, 37134 Verona, Italy Tel. +390458027093

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Seminar by J. Teichmann in Verona
by Alessandro Gnoatto 14 Apr '22

14 Apr '22

Prof. Josef Teichmann (ETH Zürich) will give a talk at the Department of Economics – University of Verona. Date: 20/04/2022 @ 12:00 (Rome Time) Title: Signature SDEs from an affine and polynomial perspective Affine or polynomial processes are fascinating classes of models due to the so-called affine transform formulae or moment formulae, respectively. We first show through a linearization procedure that generic classes of diffusion models can be obtained as projections of infinite dimensional affine processes (which actually coincide with polynomial processes). Affine and polynomial technology next allows to derive so far unknown formulae for characteristic functions and moments of involved process functionals. Third a dynamic viewpoint on those formulae (combined with machine learning approaches) leads to efficient numerical evaluations. If you would like to attend via Zoom, please register at the following link, we will send you the details: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScgw1WL5uuNrg_woQgY9WJCOIG9uIzuxkR… <https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScgw1WL5uuNrg_woQgY9WJCOIG9uIzuxkR…> Best Regards, -- Alessandro Gnoatto Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Università degli Studi di Verona Via Cantarane 24 37129, Verona, Italy Room 1.05 Tel: +39 045 802 8537 Homepage: www.alessandrognoatto.com E-mail: alessandro.gnoatto(a)univr.it -------------------------------------------------- View my research on my SSRN Author page: http://ssrn.com/author=1615989 --------------------------------------------------

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Next LTI@UniTO seminars: April 19, 2022 @12:00 | April 20, 2022 @12:00
by Luca Regis 14 Apr '22

14 Apr '22

Dear Colleagues, it is my pleasure to invite you to the following two seminars on Quantitative Finance, organised by LTI@UniTO and CCA, which will take place in hybrid form on Tuesday 19th at 12.00 (prof. Polk, LSE) and on Wednesday at 12.00 (prof. Albuquerque, Carrol School of Management). Please find below the details and links to attend via Zoom. Best regards, Luca Regis ------------ Luca Regis Associate Professor ESOMAS Department University of Torinosites.google.com/view/lucaregiswww.carloalberto.org/lti <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/mGgSCYMNR1a7HLMz6TnsrJrcmnBwnGaSAR…> <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/4KCyPXXx-Rw0rt4tRzRL2EdIK0lq7TJqPf…> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> *LTI@UniTO* and *Fondazione Collegio Carlo Alberto* are pleased to invite you to the following seminars: <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> *April 19, 2022 | 12:00 - 13:15* *The Day Destroys the Night, Night Extends the Day: A Clientele Perspective on Equity Premium Variation* *Christopher Polk (LSE – London School of Economics; CEPR)* <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> *Abstract. *We decompose market returns into their overnight and intraday components, which dramatically improves equity premium forecasts. Past smoothed overnight market returns strongly negatively forecast subsequent close-to-close returns (quarterly R2 of over 14%), primarily through intraday mean reversion. In contrast, past smoothed intraday market returns strongly positively forecast subsequent overnight returns; this partially-offsetting effect explains PE's relatively poor forecasting ability (R2 only 3%). Our decomposition also resurrects the conditional CAPM: If we allow market betas to vary with past smoothed overnight returns, the unconditional alpha of the four Fama-French non-market factors decreases by 91%. We interpret these return patterns through a clientele perspective. First, individual investor expectations and consumption growth strongly positively forecast overnight market returns; intermediary risk tolerance and household equity share strongly negatively forecast intraday market returns. Second, aggregate discount-rate news associated with revisions in future expected overnight (intraday) returns is positively (negatively) correlated with aggregate cash-flow news. Finally, while the Tech boom and Covid crash/rebound were primarily driven by overnight returns, the Global Financial Crisis was mostly an intraday phenomenon. <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> *To attend in presence, register here* <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/AeJ-WyYc_gvUq2mT72rqiHtFvTQ6jPrbiV…> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> *To attend online, join Zoom Meeting* <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/vQ-81gGUFwr92prMcO1wAos1prgrpZtXYC…> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> *April 20, 2022 | 12:00 - 13:15* *Strategic Leadership in Corporate Social Responsibility* *Rui Albuquerque (Carrol School of Management, Boston College)* <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> *Abstract.* We propose a strategic theory of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). Shareholder maximizers commit to a mission statement that extends beyond firm value maximization. This commitment leads firms (either product market competitors or complementors along the value chain) to change their actions in ways that ultimately favor shareholders. We thus provide a formal analysis of the “doing well by doing good” adage. We also provide conditions such that the mission statement game has the nature of a pure coordination game. Our framework thus provides a natural theory of firm leadership in a CSR context: by selecting a CSR mission statement, a first mover effectively leads the industry to a Pareto optimal equilibrium. <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> *To attend in person, register here* <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/sWQz91Ig64g-hKPI0qtXuwSrmqF9ks4uXO…> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> *To attend online, join Zoom Meeting* <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/a5FFG16ZzGA4wKp6TEcOSC5UJL-ct_fbpI…> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/w9EAxMXTRoVQWw8rge58Ur5Q9h1azrMGGu…> <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/ryYmaMlVZUN48CzZ1ArQlrckik3y2zJD7c…> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> FONDAZIONE COLLEGIO CARLO ALBERTO Piazza Arbarello 8 - 10122 Torino, Italy phone: +390116705000 segreteria(a)carloalberto.org - www.carloalberto.org [image: Facebook] <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/wh_Khsc6qoONJjjfPj_n-Lb6YoAirMTUXv…> [image: Twitter] <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/UnCsCKFdXGIuCX9lfeGpe6ph-BAbL3z-0f…> [image: LinkedIn] <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/tB9Ns4ARnwiSodkGn2ubnmU1M9x11LPrz4…> [image: Instagram] <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/QoIO7jUPYXlgktVaTw_Tvc2g1WfpgXZgB4…> [image: Youtube] <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/vBC6AeuPt0mow4OYvvHSCpa0bGiKvCbuof…> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> *INFORMATION UNDER THE NEW GENERAL DATA PROTECTION REGULATION (GDPR)* Your personal information has been gathered for the exclusive purpose of informing you about the Collegio's initiatives, considering our and your legitimate interest or your consent. If you wish to have your personal data modified please contact Fondazione Collegio Carlo Alberto, piazza Arbarello 8, 1022 Torino, Italy - phone: +390116705000 - privacy(a)carloalberto.org To find out about the policies regarding the processing of personal data pursuant to articles 13-14 of EU Regulation 2016/679, consult the information at the following link https://www.carloalberto.org/privacy/ <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/cl/f/DOTuQ0uCCHcGYF5klkwzkQH0wWDrRpL_lu…> *Unsubscribe* <https://4z5y5.r.a.d.sendibm1.com/mk/un/8OTasEyZLFVs-LU8TrbS7FoU5yh_VLcM7kRb…> <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_> © 2021 Fondazione Collegio Carlo Alberto <#m_-325173197699348024_m_-4631880425216739772_>

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Postdoc Position for experts in complex networks/graph algorithms
by Juho Kanniainen (TAU) 14 Apr '22

14 Apr '22

Dear all, We have an open two-year post-doc position on financial networks in Tampere, Finland. If you have background on complex networks and/or graph algorithms and would like to join a highly impactful research project on insider trading in financial markets, you might be the candidate we are seeking. As this is a highly methodological project, background in financial market research is not required, but it is important to have general interest in the application area. For further details see https://tuni.rekrytointi.com/paikat/?o=A_RJ&jgid=1&jid=1433 The deadline for applications is the 9th of May, 2022. It would be great if you could forward this announcement to potential candidates. Best regards, Juho Kanniainen -- Juho Kanniainen Professor, PhD Tampere University Computing Sciences/Statistical Data Analytics Group for Financial Computing and Data Analytics<https://www.tuni.fi/en/research/financial-computing-and-data-analytics> Mobile: +358 40 707 4532 E-mail: juho.kanniainen(a)tuni.fi<mailto:juho.kanniainen@tuni.fi> www.sites.google.com/site/juhokanniainen<http://www.sites.google.com/site/juhokanniainen>

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seminar: "Point process learning", Ottmar Cronie, 19 April
by Umberto Picchini 14 Apr '22

14 Apr '22

You are welcome to the next Statistics seminar at Dept of Mathematical Sciences at Chalmers and Göteborg University. On Tuesday April 19, Ottmar Cronie <https://www.chalmers.se/en/staff/Pages/ottmar.aspx> will talk of: ///"Point process learning" / * * *About the speaker: *Ottmar Cronie <https://www.chalmers.se/en/staff/Pages/ottmar.aspx> is associate professor at Chalmers and University of Göteborg. His research is primarily in spatial and spatio-temporal statistics as well as statistical learning. The emphasis is on point processes. The applied part of his research focuses mainly on epidemiology where the main focus at the moment is research on covid-19 and mosquito-borne diseases. // //* * *Abstract:* Point processes are random sets which generalise the classical notion of a random (iid) sample by allowing i) the sample size to be random and/or ii) the sample points to be dependent. Therefore, point process have become ubiquitous in the modeling of spatial and/or temporal event data, e.g. earthquakes and disease cases. In this talk, we present the first statistical learning framework for general point processes, which is based on a subtle combination of two new concepts: prediction errors and cross-validation for point processes. The general idea is to split a point process in two, through thinning, and estimate parameters by predicting one part using the other. By repeating this procedure, we implicitly induce a conditional repeated sampling scheme. The proposed approach allows us to introduce a variety of loss functions not only suitable for standard spatial statistical problems but for general estimation settings, without imposing the iid assumptions. Having discussed different properties of this new approach, we illustrate how it may be applied in different spatial statistical settings and, numerically, we show in (at least) one of these settings that it outperforms the state of the art.* * *Feel free to spread this announcement in your network.* * * *Where*: room MVL14 orhttps://chalmers.zoom.us/j/64214516762 Password: 355673 ** **** *When*: Tuesday 19 April at 14.30-15.30*(Swedish time, UTC+2)*. ** -- _________________________________________________________ Umberto Picchini, Associate Professor, PhD, Docent https://umbertopicchini.github.io/ , twitter: @uPicchini

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de Finetti Risk seminar: Walter Schachermayer
by Marco Maggis 13 Apr '22

13 Apr '22

On behalf of the Scientific Committee of the "B. de Finetti Risk Seminars, Milano Lectures on the Mathematical Theory of Economics and Finance”, we are glad to invite you to participate at the following Lecture which will take place on Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 17.30 (see all details below). *Walter Schachermayer* Universität Wien *Title:* Martingale Transport, De March-Touzi paving, and stretched Brownian motion in ℝd *Abstract:* In classical optimal transport, the contributions of Benamou–Brenier and Mc-Cann regarding the time-dependent version of the problem are cornerstones of the field and form the basis for a variety of applications in other mathematical areas. For µ,ν probability measures on ℝd, increasing in convex order, stretched Brownian motion [1] provides an analogue for the martingale version of this problem. In dimension d=1 it was shown in [2] that any martingale transport decomposes into at most countably many invariant intervals and that this decomposition is universal. Extensions of this result to d≥2 were studied in [4], [5], [3]. We show that the dual optimization problem attached to a stretched Brownian motion induces the universal De March–Touzi paving [3] of ℝd. Joint work with M. Beiglböck, J. Backhoff, and B. Tschiderer. REFERENCES [1] J. Backhoff-Veraguas, M. Beiglböck, M. Huesmann, and S. Källblad. Martingale Benamou-Brenier: a probabilistic perspective. Ann. Probab., 48(5):2258–2289, 2020. [2] M. Beiglböck and N. Juillet. On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints. Ann. Probab., 44(1):42–106, 2016. [3] H. De March and N. Touzi. Irreducible convex paving for decomposition of multidimensional martingale transport plans. Ann. Probab., 47(3):1726–1774, 2019. [4] N. Ghoussoub, Y.-H. Kim, and T. Lim. Structure of optimal martingale transport plans in general dimensions. Ann. Probab., 47(1):109–164, 2019. [5] J. Obłój and P. Siorpaes. Structure of martingale transports in finite dimensions. arXiv:1702.08433, 2017. *LOCATION: *The seminar will be held on Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 17.30, Aula di Rappresentanza, Dept. of Mathematics, Milano University, Via C. Saldini 50, Milano. A light reception will take place at 17.00. Scientific Committee Prof. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Marco Frittelli (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) Prof. Fabio Maccheroni (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Marco Maggis (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) Prof. Massimo Marinacci (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Emanuela Rosazza Gianin (Univ. Milano-Bicocca)

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