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Corso di Storia della Probabilità a Pavia
by Antonio Lijoi 17 Mar '16

17 Mar '16

Nell'ambito delle attivita' del Dottorato di Ricerca in Matematica (Universita' di Pavia - Universita' di Milano Bicocca - INdAM), il prof. Eugenio Regazzini terra' il corso ** History of Probability in the First Half of XX Century ** Le lezioni (30 ore complessive) si terranno presso il Dipartimento di Matematica "F. Casorati" dell'Universita' di Pavia, ogni giovedi' e venerdi' dalle 10:00 alle 13:00, a partire dal 14 aprile. Per ulteriori informazioni e' possibile contattare il docente via email: eugenio.regazzini(a)unipv.it ** Descrizione del corso ** The first half of the last century has been a formidable period for the development of probability and its applications. In point of fact, during its course a number of open problems found a definitive answer and, at the same time, sound bases towards new important achievements were established. The method adopted in the present course in order to illustrate the advance of probability consists in analyzing the most original and streamlined lines of reasoning to prove a certain number of theorems generally seen as determining the magnificence of modern probability. Since the aforesaid progress has been made possible even by the axiomatization of probability, the first part of the course will be devoted to this subject, drawing particular attention to the foundational work of A. N. Kolmogorov (1933) and B. de Finetti (1931). The second part will deal with distinguished versions of the strong law of large number, starting from E. Borel (1909) and F.P. Cantelli (1917), to get at the general formulation from the Soviet School (Kolmogorov, A. Khinchin, etc.). In the case of stochastic independence, their extensions to exchangeable random elements (de Finetti), and more general stationary sequences (ergodic theorem of von Neumann and Birkhoff) will be displayed and discussed. In this very same part, the role played by stable and infinitely divisible laws to solve the central limit problem (P. Lévy, Khinchin, W. Doeblin, B. Gnedenko) will be emphasized. The last part will be devoted to the birth of the theory of stochastic processes, starting from the works of Kolmogorov (1929) on Markov processes, de Finetti (1929 -1933) and Lévy (1934-1935) on random functions with independent increments, Lévy (1935-1937) and J. Doob (1940) on martingales. This last part will end with an outline to the methods devised in the fifties to study convergence in law of stochastic processes.

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Assistant position, TU Graz, Austria
by Fabio Zucca 12 Mar '16

12 Mar '16

Cari tutti, ricevo e volentieri inoltro, scusandomi in anticipo con chi l'avesse per caso già ricevuto. Fabio Zucca --------------------------------- Open position - Assistant Professor with PhD for 6 years Graz University of Technology Institute of Discrete Mathematics Working Group Structure Theory and Stochastics Starting date: October 1st 2016. Requirements: PhD or equivalent university degree in Mathematics or Technical Mathematics, awarded before the beginning of the engagement. Desired qualifications: scientific work in the fields of Stochastic Processes (random walks), Graph Theory, Geometric Group Theory, possibly combining those topics. Readiness to collaborate in research projects in these areas. Teaching duties of at least 4 hours per week per semester, in particular for Mathematics in the Engineering sciences, in German (!). Deadline for applications: May 31, 2016. For details regarding position and applications, see http://www.math.tu-graz.ac.at/~woess/position Graz, March 2016, Wolfgang Woess _______________________________________________

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Half day in stochastic processes and mathematical finance
by Tiziano Vargiolu 11 Mar '16

11 Mar '16

It is a pleasure to announce that on March, 14 in Room 2BC/30 of the Department of Mathematics at the University of Padova (via Trieste, 63) there will be two seminars and the discussion of a PhD thesis. The plan of the morning is as follows: 10am Prof. Carlo Sgarra (Politecnico di Milano): "American options valuation in stochastic volatility models with transaction costs" (joint with A. Cosso and D. Marazzina) 11am Prof Fausto Gozzi (LUISS Roma): "HJB equations for stochastic control problems with delay in the control: regularity and feedback controls" (joint with Federica Masiero) 12am Dr Matteo Basei will defense his PhD thesis titled "Topics in stochastic control and differential game theory, with application to mathematical finance" Here below the abstracts of the presentations. ABSTRACT SGARRA In the present paper we analyze the American option valuation problem in a stochastic volatility model when transaction costs are taken into account. We shall show that it can be formulated as a singular stochastic optimal control problem, proving the existence and uniqueness of the viscosity solution for the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation. Moreover, after performing a dimensionality reduction through a suitable choice of the Utility Function, we shall provide a numerical example illustrating how American options prices can be computed in the present modeling framework. ABSTRACT GOZZI Stochastic optimal control problems governed by delay equations with delay in the control are usually more difficult to study than the the ones when the delay appears only in the state. This is particularly true when we look at the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. Indeed, even in the simplified setting (introduced first by Vinter and Kwong [44] for the deterministic case) the HJB equation is an infinite dimensional second order semilinear Partial Differential Equation (PDE) that does not satisfy the so-called "structure condition" which substantially means that "the noise enters the system with the control". The absence of such condition, together with the lack of smoothing properties which is a common feature of problems with delay, prevents the use of the known techniques (based on Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs) or on the smoothing properties of the linear part) to prove the existence of regular solutions of this HJB equation and so no results on this direction have been proved till now. In this paper we provide a result on existence of regular solutions of such kind of HJB equations and we use it to solve completely the corresponding control problem finding optimal feedback controls also in the more difficult case of pointwise delay. The main tool used is a partial smoothing property that we prove for the transition semigroup associated to the uncontrolled problem. Such results hold for a specific class of equations and data which arises naturally in many applied problems. ABSTRACT BASEI: We consider three problems in stochastic control and differential game theory, arising from practical situations in mathematical finance and energy markets. First, we address the problem of optimally exercising swing contracts in energy markets. Our main result consists in characterizing the value function as the unique viscosity solution of a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The case of contracts with penalties is straightforward. Conversely, the case of contracts with strict constraints gives rise to stochastic control problems where a non-standard integral constraint is present: we get the anticipated characterization by considering a suitable sequence of unconstrained problems. The approximation result is proved for a general class of problems with an integral constraint on the controls. Then, we consider a retailer who has to decide when and how to intervene and adjust the price of the energy he sells, in order to maximize his earnings. The intervention costs can be either fixed or depending on the market share. In the first case, we get a standard impulsive control problem and we characterize the value function and the optimal price policy. In the second case, classical theory cannot be applied, due to the singularities of the penalty function; we then outline an approximation argument and we finally consider stronger conditions on the controls to characterize the optimal policy. Finally, we focus on a general class of non-zero-sum stochastic differential games with impulse controls. After defining a rigorous framework for such problems, we prove a verification theorem: if a couple of functions is regular enough and satisfies a suitable system of quasi-variational inequalities, it coincides with the value functions of the problem and a characterization of the Nash equilibria is possible. We conclude by a detailed example: we investigate the existence of equilibria in the case where two countries, with different goals, can affect the exchange rate between the corresponding currencies. Tiziano -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tiziano Vargiolu Dipartimento di Matematica Phone: +39 049 8271383 Universita' di Padova Fax: +39 049 8271428 Via Trieste, 63 E-mail: vargiolu(a)math.unipd.it I-35121 Padova (Italy) WWW: http://www.math.unipd.it/~vargiolu --------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Prof. Nils Hjort PhD short course on Confidence distributions
by Andrea Ongaro 10 Mar '16

10 Mar '16

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seminar announcement
by Marco Scarsini 10 Mar '16

10 Mar '16

SEMINAR IN DECISION SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE March 15th from 14:30 to 15:30 in room 204 LUISS Viale Romania 32 00197 Roma (note the change of time and room) Title of the talk: Asymptotic Lower Bounds for Optimal Tracking: a Linear Programming Approach Speaker: Peter Tankov (Universite Paris Diderot -- Paris 7) Abstract We consider the problem of tracking a target whose dynamics is modeled by a continuous Ito semi-martingale. The aim is to minimize both deviation from the target and tracking efforts. We establish the existence of asymptotic lower bounds for this problem, depending on the cost structure. These lower bounds can be related to the time-average control of Brownian motion, which is characterized as a deterministic linear programming problem. A comprehensive list of examples with explicit expressions for the lower bounds is provided. Joint work with Jiatu Cai and Mathieu Resenbaum paper available at http://arxiv.org/abs/1510.04295 ******************************************************* Marco Scarsini Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza LUISS Viale Romania 32 00197 Roma, ITALY URL: http://docenti.luiss.it/scarsini/

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PhD positions in Probability at the University of Sussex, UK
by Enrico Scalas 08 Mar '16

08 Mar '16

Car* collegh*, al Sussex abbiamo due posizioni di dottorato per probabilist* piu' una serie di altre posizioni disponibili. Il link qui sotto dovrebbe condurre a una pagina dove tutte le posizioni sono descritte. http://www.sussex.ac.uk/study/pg/fees-and-scholarships/pgr2016/search?sent=… Vi prego di far circolare l'informazione tra gli studenti e le studentesse potenzialmente interessate. Cordiali saluti e a presto, Enrico Scalas

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de Finetti risk seminar - March 2016
by Emanuela Rosazza 08 Mar '16

08 Mar '16

On behalf of the Scientific Committee of the de Finetti Risk Seminars, we are glad to invite you to participate at the following Lecture TITLE: Set-valued portfolios and set-valued risks Ilya Molchanov University of Bern, Switzerland ABSTRACT: Using the concept of set-valued portfolios, it is possible to incorporate dependencies between the distribution of the multivariate gain and the exchange rules. The set-valued portfolio is considered acceptable if it possesses a selection (i.e. a random vector that alsmost surely belongs to it) with all individually acceptable components. The corresponding set-valued risk measure is said to be a selection risk measure. The talk surveys its main properties, discusses the primal and dual representation, gives examples, and shows how to approximate its values from below and from above using rather elementary arguments. Applications of selection risk measures to the practical risk assessment are also presented. A special attention is paid to applications of selection risk measures to risk assessment of financial groups. Joint work with I. Cascos (Madrid), A. Haier (Bern), M. Schmutz (Bern). LOCATION: The seminar will be held on Wednesday, March 16, at 18.00, Aula di rappresentanza, Dept. of Mathematics, Milano University, Via C. Saldini 50, Milano. A refreshment will be offered at 17.30. Scientific Committee Prof. Simone Cerreia-Voglio (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Marco Frittelli (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) Prof. Fabio Maccheroni (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Massimo Marinacci (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Emanuela Rosazza Gianin (Univ. Milano-Bicocca) Dott. Marco Maggis (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) **************************************************** Emanuela Rosazza Gianin Dipartimento di Statistica e Metodi Quantitativi Università di Milano Bicocca Edificio U7 – 4° Piano Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8 20126 Milano Tel. 02 64483208 Fax. 02 64483105 e-mail: emanuela.rosazza1(a)unimib.it *****************************************************

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1 posto di RTD di tipo a) del s.s.d. SECS-S/06 presso la Scuola Normale Superiore (Pisa)
by Fabrizio Lillo 08 Mar '16

08 Mar '16

La Scuola Normale Superiore ha bandito un posto di RTD di tipo a nel ssd SECS-S/06 Le informazioni, il bando e il modello della domanda si trovano al link http://www.sns.it/bando/ricercatore -tempo-determinato-secs-s06-metodi-matematici-dell%E2%80%99economia-e-delle-scienze-attuariali-e-finanziarie-0 Il termine di scadenza delle domande è il prossimo 31 marzo 2016. Fabrizio Lillo ---------------------------------------- Fabrizio Lillo Scuola Normale Superiore Piazza dei Cavalieri 7 56126 Pisa ITALY New website: fabriziolillo.wordpress.com phone: +39 050509159

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Annuncio Seminario - Hashorva - Tor Vergata
by Valentina Cammarota 08 Mar '16

08 Mar '16

Ciclo di Seminari - Progetto ERC PASCAL (Probabilistic and Statistical Techniques for Cosmological Applications) Mercoledì 16 marzo ore 14:30 Aula Dal Passo Dipartimento di Matematica Università di Roma Tor Vergata Speaker: ENKELEJD HASHORVA, Université de Lausanne Title: Extremes of Gaussian random fields. Abstract: This talk is concerned with tail asymptotics of supremum of Gaussian random fields. Our findings extend the classical results for homogeneous Gaussian random fields and Gaussian random fields with unique maximum point of the variance. The applications that will be discussed include extremes of Shepp statistics, expansions for the tail probability of maximum loss and span of stationary Gaussian processes. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. . Valentina Cammarota Department of Mathematics Universita` degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata http://www.mat.uniroma2.it/english.php https://sites.google.com/site/valentinacammarota/

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seminar March 8 -- Brunero Liseo
by Marco Scarsini 06 Mar '16

06 Mar '16

SEMINAR IN DECISION SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE LUISS Viale Romania 32 00197 Roma Title of the talk: A general theory for Bayesian inference with linked and duplicated data Speaker: Brunero Liseo (Sapienza Università di Roma) on March 8th from 12:00 to 13:00 in room 207 Abstract Record linkage is a statistical method which aims at identifying whether two or more records refer to the same statistical entity or not. Duplications of the same entity within one single source or across different files may be interpreted as “clusters of records”, showing strong similarities across their fields. In this paper we frame the record linkage process into a formal Bayesian clustering model and we investigate the role of species sampling models as prior distributions for the clustering structure. In fact the different latent entities underlying one or more data sources can be treated as the sampled species and the observed records as noisy measurements of their features. We also discuss an important issue in the clustering approach to entity resolution, that is the need to bound the clusters sizes even for large data sets. The proposed statistical models will be used both in a classical record linkage scenario and in the more complex framework of multiple duplications on the same data source and will serve as supporting models for Bayesian regression analyses with linked data. Key words: Species Sampling, Latent structure, Hit and Miss Algorithm, Clustering. References 1. Tancredi, A. and Liseo, B. (2015) Regression Analysis with linked data: Problems and possible solutions. Statistica, 75,1:19–35. 2. Lahiri, P. and Larsen, M.D., (2005). Regression analysis with linked data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 100, pp. 222–230. 3. Tancredi, A., Liseo, B. (2011) A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Record Linkage and Population Size Problems. The Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol. 5, No. 2B, 1553–1585. 4. R.C. Steorts, R. Hall & S. Fienberg. (2013). A Bayesian approach to graphical record linkage and de-duplication. Journal of the American Statistical Association, (In Press) preprint arXiv:1312.4645.

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