UNIVERSITA' DI SALERNO DIPARTIMENTO DI MATEMATICA

AVVISO DI SEMINARIO

Giovedì 1 settembre 2022, alle ore 12:00, nella sala del consiglio del Dipartimento di Matematica, edificio F2, si terrà il seguente seminario in presenza e online (su Teams):

*Analyzing the loss of protection in an SVIS stochastic model with infection reintroduction, when vaccines are partially effective*

Prof.ssa *Maria Jesus Lopez-Herrero* Department of Statistics and Data Science, Faculty of Statistical Studies, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain

ABSTRACT

This talk deals with a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Vaccinated-Susceptible (*SIVS*) model with infection reintroduction, where the propagation of a contagious disease was modeled in terms of a continuous time Markov chain.

A communicable disease spreads in a homogeneous moderately-sized community of constant size in which individuals are identical in terms of social mixing and disease contact or recovery characteristics.

Health policies depend on a vaccine coverage that guarantees herd immunity levels in the population. Hence, for community protection, a certain number of individuals were vaccinated against the contagious disease before the outbreak starts.

Vaccine failures occur when an organism develops a disease despite of being vaccinated against it. After vaccination, a proportion of healthy individuals unsuccessfully tries to increase antibody levels and, consequently these individuals are not immune to the vaccine preventable disease. When an infectious process is in progress, the initial vaccine coverage drops down and herd immunity will be lost.

Our objective is to introduce a threshold for vaccination level and study random characteristics depending on this threshold and also on the vaccination eligible group that could advise health authorities when to launch a new vaccination program to recover the initial immunity level.

link: https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_ZWUxYmVmYmQtOWVmMC00Z...

Gli interessati sono cordialmente invitati a partecipare.