On behalf of the Scientific Committee of the de Finetti Risk Seminars, we are glad to invite you to participate at the following Lectures

at 16:30: Conditional systemic risk measures

Thilo Meyer-Brandis (LMU Munich)

ABSTRACT The financial crisis has demonstrated that systemic risk due to the interconnectedness of financial-market participants - such as financial institutions, insurers, governments and, even, regulators themselves - can dramatically amplify the consequences of isolated shocks to financial systems and pose a serious threat to prosperity and social stability.The traditional approach to risk control in financial mathematics is to apply risk measures to single institutions. However, this strategy fails to capture systemic risk because it treats institutions as if they were in isolation, and recent literature in financial mathematics has started to develop various approaches to rectify this deficiency. In this presentation we will axiomatically introduce and characterize risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures. This class of conditional systemic risk measures is defined on multidimensional risks and consists of those conditional systemic risk measures which can be decomposed into a state-wise conditional aggregation and a univariate conditional risk measure. Our studies are based on the axiomatic characterization in [Chen et al., 2013] of a similar class of systemic risk measures in a finite state and unconditional framework. We argue in favor of a conditional framework on general probability spaces for assessing systemic risk. Moreover, we allow for very general aggregation rules, a less restrictive axiomatic setting, and thus a more flexible structure which covers many prominent examples of systemic risk measures from the literature and used in practice. Further, we will see how this type of systemic risk measures naturally arises when considering families of consistent conditional systemic risk measures and discuss some examples.

at 18:00: Mathematical models for the formation of financial bubbles

Francesca Biagini (LMU Munich)

ABSTRACT The notion of an asset price bubble has two ingredients. One is the observed market price of a given financial asset, the other is the asset's intrinsic value, and the bubble is defined as the difference between the two. The intrinsic value, also called the fundamental value of the asset, is usually defined as the expected sum of future discounted dividends. In the first part of the talk we study a flow in the space of equivalent martingale measures and focus on the corresponding shifting perception of the fundamental value of a given asset in an incomplete financial marketmodel. This allows us to capture the birth of a perceived bubble and to describe it as an initial submartingale which then turns into a supermartingale before it falls back to its initial value zero. In the second part of the talk we examine the impact of overconfidence on bubbles formation in the framework of reduced-form models for credit risk. We assume that the wealth associated to a defaultable asset may be strongly affected by the trading activity of overconfident investors, who believe the asset to be safe and provoke an alteration of its estimated value. Since the value process changes under this influence, the underlying pricing measure has also to readapt determining a switch in the space of the equivalent martingale measures. In this way we provide a constructive approach to explain bubbles formation as well as motivate a dynamics in the space of equivalent martingale measures at micro-economic level.

LOCATION: The seminar will be held on Wednesday, November 19, starting from 16.30, Aula di rappresentanza, Dept. of Mathematics, Milano University, Via C. Saldini 50, Milano. A refreshment will be offered at 17.30.

Scientific Committee:

Prof. Marco Frittelli (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) Prof. Fabio Maccheroni (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Massimo Marinacci (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Emanuela Rosazza Gianin (Univ. Milano-Bicocca) Dott. Simone Cerreia-Voglio (Univ. Bocconi) Dott. Marco Maggis (Univ. degli Studi di Milano)

**************************************************** Emanuela Rosazza Gianin Dipartimento di Statistica e Metodi Quantitativi Università di Milano Bicocca Edificio U7 – 4° Piano Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8 20126 Milano

Tel. 02 64483208 Fax. 02 64483105 e-mail: emanuela.rosazza1@unimib.it

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