---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Fri, 4 Dec 2020 20:59:24 +0100 From: Paolo Falbo paolo.falbo@unibs.it To: "Vargiolu, Tiziano" vargiolu@math.unipd.it Subject: Webinar Ferrari G. - at UNIBS, Department of Economics and Management

Ciao Tiziano, con preghiera di diffusione. Un caro saluto, Paolo

*****

Dear friends,

on December 15th, 2020 - 14:30 (cet)

within the Research Seminars of DEM, it will take place the following webinar:

Taming the spread of an epidemics by lockdown policies presented by Prof. Ferrari Giorgio, Bielefeld University and organized by Prof. Paolo Falbo

Abstract In this talk we consider the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic process whose trend can be adjusted via costly confinement policies. We provide a complete theoretical analysis, as well as numerical experiments illustrating the structure of the optimal lockdown policy. In all our experiments the latter is characterized by three distinct periods: the epidemic is first let freely evolve, then vigorously tamed, and finally a less stringent containment should be adopted. Moreover, the optimal containment policy is such that the product "reproduction number x percentage of susceptible" is kept after a certain date strictly below the critical level of one, although the reproduction number is let oscillate above one in the last more relaxed phase of lockdown. Finally, an increase in the fluctuations of the transmission rate is shown to give rise to an earlier beginning of the optimal lockdown policy, which is also diluted over a longer period of time. The seminar is based on a joint work with Salvatore Federico (University of Genova).

Live presentation on: Google Meet. To participate, registration is required by 14 December 2020 at 12:00, by filling out the following form: https://forms.gle/VLejKcTxPHYdRXZ99 Subscribers will be emailed the link to the webinar meeting.

The poster of the event is attached.

Informativa sulla Privacy: http://www.unibs.it/node/8155