Wed April 1 2015, 1:00 PM in Aula Mancini, Scuola Normale Superiore Pisa Tommaso Colozza Dipartimento di Statistica e Matematica Applicata all'Economia - Università di Pisa will deliver the seminar "Supply of public debt and demand for risk premia: a Minskian approach to credit risk" Abstract: Financial stability of EMU countries is managed by policy makers through several key macroeconomic indicators; the market instead monitors creditworthiness with credit risk premia embedded in sovereign yields. A demand-supply approach solves this duality: in a Minskian framework, positive inelastic shifts in debt-to-GDP ratio due to widespread macro-financial distress may lower risk appetites of lenders and increase risk premia, up to default. Time-variating risk appetites justify statistical relevance of debt-to-gdp variation on yields levels; if conveniently decomposed, debt velocity allows also to imply a default probability measure comparable to standard CDS-implied measures. All interested people are kindly invited. Best, Giacomo -- Giacomo Bormetti Assistant Professor of Financial Mathematics -------------------------- Faculty of Sciences Scuola Normale Superiore Pisa Piazza dei Cavalieri, 7 56126 Pisa - Italy email: giacomo.bormetti@sns.it http://mathfinance.sns.it/index.php/people/41-group-members/51-giacomo-borme... phone: +39 050 509248