Il giorno martedi' 21 febbraio alle ore 11 presso il Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Universita' di Padova, via Trieste 63, aula 1AD/100, il prof. Giorgio Ferrari dell'Universita' di Bielefeld, e ospite del Dipartimento di Matematica in qualita' di professore visitatore nell'ambito del progetto YITP (Young Investigation Training Program), terra' un seminario dal titolo

Controlling Public Debt without forgetting Inflation

Abstract  -------- Consider a government that wants to control its debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio, while taking into consideration the evolution of the inflation rate of the country. The uncontrolled inflation rate follows an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics and affects the growth rate of the debt ratio. The level of the latter can be reduced by the government through fiscal interventions. The government aims at choosing a debt reduction policy which minimises the total expected cost of having debt, plus the total expected cost of interventions on debt ratio. We model such problem as a two-dimensional singular stochastic control problem over an infinite time-horizon. We show that it is optimal for the government to adopt a policy that keeps the debt-to-GDP ratio under an inflation-dependent ceiling. This curve is the free-boundary of an associated fully two-dimensional optimal stopping problem, and it is shown to be the unique solution of a nonlinear integral equation. Finally, some economic conclusions are drawn.

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Tiziano

-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tiziano Vargiolu Dipartimento di Matematica Phone: +39 049 8271383 Universita' di Padova Fax: +39 049 8271428 Via Trieste, 63 E-mail: vargiolu@math.unipd.it I-35121 Padova (Italy) WWW: http://www.math.unipd.it/~vargiolu --------------------------------------------------------------------------