********************************************************************* SEMINARIO DI PROBABILITA' E STATISTICA MATEMATICA ******************************************************************** DIPARTIMENTO DI MATEMATICA UNIVERSITA' LA SAPIENZA DI ROMA ******************************************************************** piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Roma *******************************************************************

Yosi Rinott (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and LUISS)

Title: On Measuring and Comparing Usefulness of Statistical Models

Aula di Consiglio del Dipartimento di Matematica Venerdi' 8 maggio, ore 14,30

Abstract: Statistical models in econometrics, biology, and most other areas, should not be expected to be "correct", and often are not very accurate, but may still be useful. The choice of a model for the analysis of data depends on the purpose of the analysis, the nature of the data, and also on the sample or data size. Erev, Roth, Slonim and Barron (2007) [Economic Theory, 33, 29–51] studied models for prediction of future play in game-theoretic experiments and proposed an approach for quantification of the value of a model. Combining ideas from the latter article and the well-known AIC criterion, we propose another quantification of the chosen model's relative predictive value, which depends on the data and its size. Our research was first motivated by data from experimental economics, and we also study the Hardy-Weinberg model in biology.

Joint work with David Azriel *************************************************************************************

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