ANNUNCIO DI SEMINARIO
venerdì 13 giugno 2014, ore 14:30
Sala Bassini, Piano Rialzato
CNR – IMATI, Via Bassini 15, Milano
RELATORE
Dr ZHUANG Jiancang
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo
TITOLO
Testing significance of earthquake precursors against earthquake
clustering models instead of against complete randomness
ABSTRACT
During the last 30 years, a number of algorithms have been
developed that search for seismic anomalies in order to predict
strong earthquakes. Examples of such algorithms are M8, RTP, RTL,
PI, and LURR. In these algorithms, behaviour is usually deemed
to be anomalous if seismicity rates change from the background
activity, which is usually assumed stationary or, more strongly,
a Poisson process. On the other hand, it is well known that
seismicity is clustered and can be well described by the Epidemic-Type
Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Such anomalies detected in these
conventional ways may be caused by earthquake clusters or improper
declustering algorithms. This presentation illustrates, through
examples, how to modify these algorithms for the testing of
seismic anomalies against a clustering model (e.g., the ETAS model).
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Elisa Varini
CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
IMATI - Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche
via Bassini 15 - 20133 Milano (Italy)
Tel +39 02 23699 527
Fax +39 02 23699 538
Email elisa(a)mi.imati.cnr.it
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