Random February 2017

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Seminar announcement
by Marco Scarsini 17 Feb '17

17 Feb '17

Thursday 23 February from 12.00 to 13.00 LUISS room 207 viale Romania 32 00197 Roma. *Speaker:* Bruno Ziliotto (CNRS) *Title:* In zero-sum stochastic games, the payoff is constant *Abstract*: In a zero-sum stochastic game, at each stage, two adversary players take decisions and receive a stage payoff determined by these actions and by a random variable called state of nature. The total payoff is the discounted sum of the stage payoffs. Assume that players are very patient and use optimal strategies. We then prove that at any point in the game, players get essentially the same payoff: the payoff is constant. No game theory prerequisite of any kind is needed to understand this talk. (joint work with Miquel Oliu Barton) ******************************************************* Marco Scarsini Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza LUISS Viale Romania 32 00197 Roma, ITALY URL: http://docenti.luiss.it/scarsini/

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Seminario CARLO SGARRA @ UniTo
by Federico Polito 17 Feb '17

17 Feb '17

********************************************************************* SEMINARI DI PROBABILITA' E STATISTICA MATEMATICA DIPARTIMENTO DI MATEMATICA "G. PEANO" UNIVERSITA' DEGLI STUDI DI TORINO ********************************************************************* mercoledì 15 Marzo 2017 alle ore 11:30 in Aula C presso il Dipartimento di Matematica "G. Peano" dell'Università degli Studi di Torino, Via Carlo Alberto 10, Il Prof. CARLO SGARRA (Politecnico di Milano) terrà un seminario dal titolo A BRANCHING PROCESS-BASED APPROACH TO POWER MARKETS (The talk will be mainly based on a joint paper with Y. Jiao, C. Ma and S. Scotti). Abstract: Energy markets, and in particular, electricity markets, exhibit very peculiar features. The historical series of both futures and spot prices include seasonality, mean-reversion, spikes and small fluctuations. Very often a stochastic volatility dynamics is postulated in order to explain their high degree of variability. After the pioneering paper by Schwartz, where an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics is assumed to describe the spot price behavior, several different approaches have been investigated in order to describe the price evolution. High frequency trading, on the other hand, introduced some new features in commodity prices dynamics: in a recent paper by V. Filimonov, D. Bicchetti, N. Maystre and D. Sornette evidence is shown of endogeneity and structural regime shift, and in order to quantify this level the branching ratio is adopted as a measure of this endogenous impact and a Hawkes processes dynamics is assumed as a reasonable modelling framework taking into account the self-exciting properties. The purpose of the present investigation is to propose a new modeling framework including all the above mentioned features, still keeping a high level of tractability. The model considered allows to obtain the most common derivatives prices in closed or semi-closed form. Here with semi-closed we mean that the Laplace transform of the derivative price admits an explicit expression. The models we are going to introduce can describe the prices dynamics in two different forms, that can be proved to be equivalent: the first is a representation based on random fields, the second is based on Continuous Branching Processes with Immigration (CBI in the following). Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. -- Federico Polito Department of Mathematics University of Torino Via Carlo Alberto, 10 10123, Torino, Italy Email: federico.polito(a)unito.it Tel: +39 011 6702862 Web: www.fpolito.eu

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seminario Matteo Burzoni in Bicocca
by Fabio Bellini 17 Feb '17

17 Feb '17

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Teaching assistantships at LUISS
by Marco Scarsini 16 Feb '17

16 Feb '17

LUISS is looking for teaching assistants for various courses in mathematics, statistics, and computer science for the academic year 2017/2018. Teaching assistants are expected to teach in either English or Italian (not necessarily both), hold office hours, and assist with exams. Whoever is interested should fill out the application form that can be found at the pages http://www.luiss.edu/ateneo/opportunita-di-lavoro/reclutamento-docenti-cont… (Department of Economics and Finance), http://www.luiss.edu/ateneo/opportunita-di-lavoro/reclutamento-docenti-cont… (Department of Management). The deadline is 02 March 2017. I would greatly appreciate if you could inform your graduate students of this opportunity. ******************************************************* Marco Scarsini Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza LUISS Viale Romania 32 00197 Roma, ITALY URL: http://docenti.luiss.it/scarsini/

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Annuncio di seminari
by Piccioni, Mauro 15 Feb '17

15 Feb '17

Il giorno 21 febbraio 2017 presso l'Aula E del Dipartimento di Matematica, Sapienza Università di Roma si terranno i seguenti seminari di Probabilità e Statistica Matematica: Ore 14.30 Wolfgand Woess (TU Graz, Austria) Multidimensional reflected random walk - some results and many questions Abstract: Let (Y_n,V_n) be i.i.d. distributed, with the components r and s-dimensional, respectively. Reﬂected random walk starting at a point x of the positive r-dimensional orthant is deﬁned recursively by X_0 = x, X_n = |X_{n−1}−Y_n|, where |(a_1,...,a_r)| = (|a_1|,...,|a_r|). In R^s, consider the ordinary sum S_n = V_1 +···+V_n . We are interested in (topological) recurrence of the process (X_n,v+S_n) starting at (x,v). While this is quite well understood for refelcted random walk with r=1, in higher dimension (r \geq 2) or with some non-reﬂected coordinates (s \in {1,2}) we have a few basic results and various open questions with some partial answers. This is work with Judith Kloas, with input from Marc Peigne' and Wojciech Cygan. Ore 15.30 Oriane Blondel (CNRS Lyon, France) More random walks on random walks Abstract: We consider a Poissonian distribution of particles performing independent simple random walks. Simultaneously, on top of this system, a random walker evolves with a drift to the right when it is on top of (at least) a particle, to the left when it is on an empty site. We obtain a LLN, CLT and large deviation bounds in high and low density. Joint work with Marcelo Hilario, Renato dos Santos, Vladas Sidoravicius, Augusto Teixeira. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. per informazioni rivolgersi a piccioni(a)mat.uniroma1.it

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Seminario Prof. Giorgio Ferrari
by Tiziano Vargiolu 15 Feb '17

15 Feb '17

Il giorno martedi' 21 febbraio alle ore 11 presso il Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Universita' di Padova, via Trieste 63, aula 1AD/100, il prof. Giorgio Ferrari dell'Universita' di Bielefeld, e ospite del Dipartimento di Matematica in qualita' di professore visitatore nell'ambito del progetto YITP (Young Investigation Training Program), terra' un seminario dal titolo Controlling Public Debt without forgetting Inflation Abstract -------- Consider a government that wants to control its debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio, while taking into consideration the evolution of the inflation rate of the country. The uncontrolled inflation rate follows an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics and affects the growth rate of the debt ratio. The level of the latter can be reduced by the government through fiscal interventions. The government aims at choosing a debt reduction policy which minimises the total expected cost of having debt, plus the total expected cost of interventions on debt ratio. We model such problem as a two-dimensional singular stochastic control problem over an infinite time-horizon. We show that it is optimal for the government to adopt a policy that keeps the debt-to-GDP ratio under an inflation-dependent ceiling. This curve is the free-boundary of an associated fully two-dimensional optimal stopping problem, and it is shown to be the unique solution of a nonlinear integral equation. Finally, some economic conclusions are drawn. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Tiziano -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tiziano Vargiolu Dipartimento di Matematica Phone: +39 049 8271383 Universita' di Padova Fax: +39 049 8271428 Via Trieste, 63 E-mail: vargiolu(a)math.unipd.it I-35121 Padova (Italy) WWW: http://www.math.unipd.it/~vargiolu --------------------------------------------------------------------------

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BISP10, Milano, June 2017-extended deadlines
by fabrizio＠mi.imati.cnr.it 15 Feb '17

15 Feb '17

The 10th workshop on Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Processes (BISP10) will take place in Milano, Italy, on June 13-15, 2017. ** The online abstract submission (for oral or poster presentation) is extended to the 28th of February ** Theoretical and applied contributions on Bayesian inference in stochastic processes are both welcome. A non-exhaustive list of topics includes Markov processes, temporal and spatial processes, computations and methods for complex structures, empirical processes, birth-death and branching processes, networks and relational data, queuing, signal processes, stochastic differential equations. BISP10 is dedicated to Pietro Muliere, on his 70th birthday. All information can be found on the website : www.unibocconi.eu/bisp10 If you have any questions, please contact the Chairs of the Local and Scientific Committees: Sonia Petrone sonia.petrone(a)unibocconi.it and Fabrizio Ruggeri fabrizio(a)mi.imati.cnr.it Best wishes, and we look forward to welcoming you in Milano at BISP10. Sonia Petrone & Fabrizio Ruggeri -- Fabrizio Ruggeri fabrizio AT mi.imati.cnr.it CNR IMATI tel +39 0223699532 Via Bassini 15 fax +39 0223699538 I-20133 Milano (Italy) web.mi.imati.cnr.it/fabrizio

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Seminario Dott.ssa Zehra Eksi
by Katia Colaneri 14 Feb '17

14 Feb '17

Il giorno giovedì 16 febbraio alle ore 16 presso il Dipartimento di Economia dell'Università di Perugia, la Dott.ssa Zehra Eksi, Assistant Professor presso la WU-Vienna University of Economics and Business, e ospite del Dipartimento di Economia in qualità di professore visitatore nell'ambito del progetto YITP (Young Investigation Training Program), terrà un seminario dal titolo "EM Algorithm for Markov Chains observed via Gaussian Noise and Point Processes Information" *Abstract*: In this paper we obtain an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for a setting in which the state variable follows a finite-state Markov chain observed via diffusive and point process information. Such a setting may arise, for example, in the modelling of sovereign credit risk where information stems from default history (jump component) and CDS spreads (diffusive component). Obtaining the EM algorithm amounts to the derivation of finite-dimensional filters for quantities such as number of jumps and sojourn times associated to the Markov chain. In this context, we obtain both exact and unnormalized filters for the related quantities. Moreover, we compute discretized robust versions of the unnormalized filters. Next, we introduce a novel goodness of fit test to check how well the estimated model explains a given data set. Finally, we run a simulation study to test speed and accuracy of the algorithm. In particular, we provide a comparison for the estimates resulting from the robust and naive discretization and the value of point process information (This is a Joint work with Camilla Damian and Ruediger Frey) Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Dott.ssa Katia Colaneri Department of Economics, University of Perugia Via A. Pascoli 20, Perugia 06123- Italy e-mail: katia.colaneri@unipg <katia.colaneri(a)gmail.com>.it

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Mini-workshop announcement: Stochastic Analysis Day 2017, Monday, February 27, Pisa
by Carina Geldhauser 13 Feb '17

13 Feb '17

Stochastic Analysis Day 2017 The Stochastic Analysis Day 2017 will take place on Monday, February 27, at the Department of Mathematics of the University of Pisa. Speakers: * J.C. Alfonso Lopez (Braunschweig) * L. Bianchi (Berlin) * T. Funaki (Tokyo) * C. Geldhauser (Pisa) * H. Hatzikirou (Braunschweig) *M. Maurelli (Berlin) More information can be found on the website http://www.dm.unipi.it/pages/romito/SPASS/workshop/20170227/ Registration is not obligatory, but highly recommended for organizational purposes. To register, please contact the organizers.

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WIRN 2017 - First Call for Papers - 27th Italian Workshop on Neural Networks
by Marco Corazza 13 Feb '17

13 Feb '17

*** WIRN 2017 - First Call for Papers *** *** 27th Italian Workshop on Neural Networks *** *** June 14-16, Vietri sul Mare, Salerno, Italy *** WIRN 2017 – PRELIMINAY CALL FOR PAPERS The Italian Workshop on Neural Networks (WIRN) is the annual conference of the Italian Society of Neural Networks (SIREN). The conference is organized in co-operation with the International Institute for Advanced Scientific Studies (IIASS) of Vietri S/M (Italy), and is a traditional event devoted to the discussion of novelties and innovations related to field of Artificial Neural Networks. In recent years, it also became a multidisciplinary forum on psychological and cognitive theories for modelling human behaviours. The 27th Edition of the Italian Workshop on Neural Networks (WIRN 2017) will be held at the IIASS of Vietri sul Mare, near Salerno, Italy. CALL FOR PAPERS, SPECIAL SESSIONS PROPOSALS: Prospective authors are invited to contribute high quality papers in the topic areas listed below and proposals for special sessions. Special sessions aim to bring together researchers in special focused topics. Each special session should include at least 3 contributing papers. A proposal for a special session should include a summary statement (1 page long) describing the motivation and relevance of the proposed special session, together with the article titles and author names of the papers that will be included in the track. Contributions should be high quality, original and not published elsewhere or submitted for publication during the review period. Please visit the web site for further details of the required paper format. Papers will be reviewed by the Program Committee, and may be accepted for oral or poster presentation. All accepted contributions will be published in a special volume printed by Springer and indexed by SCOPUS. Authors will be limited to one paper per registration. Manuscripts should not exceed the limit of 8 pages. The description of the submission procedure will appear soon on the SIREN Website www.associazionesiren.org TOPIC AREAS: Suggested topics for the conference include, but are not limited to, the following research and application areas: - General Topics of Interest about Computational Intelligence: Neural Networks, Fuzzy Systems, Evolutionary Computation and Swarm Intelligence, Support Vector Machines, Complex Networks, Bayesian and Kernel Networks, Consciousness and Models of Emotion Cognitive and Psychological Models of Human Behavior. - Algorithms & Architectures: Among others: Opportunist Networks, Metabolic Networks, ICA and BSS, Deep Neural Networks, Bio-inspired Neural Networks, Wavelet Neural Networks, Intelligent Algorithms for Signal (Speech, Faces, Gestures, Gaze, etc) Processing and Recognition. - Implementations: Among others: Hardware Implementations and Embedded Systems, Neuromorphic Circuits and Hardware, Spike-based VLSI NNs, Intelligent Interactive Dialogue Systems, Embodied Conversational Agents. - Applications: Among others: Finance and Economics, Big Data Analysis, Neuroinformatics and Bioinformatics, Brain-Computer Interface and Systems, Data Fusion, Time Series Modelling and Prediction, Intelligent Infrastructure and Transportation Systems, Sensors and Network of Sensors, Smart Grid, Process Monitoring and Diagnosis, Intelligent and Adaptive Systems for Human-Machine Interaction. PAPER SUBMISSION: Important Dates - Special Session/Workshop proposals: March 16, 2017; - Paper Submission deadline: April 16, 2017; - Notification of acceptance: May 16, 2017; - Camera-ready copy: on site, June 1, 2017; - Conference Dates: June 14-16, 2017. More detailed instructions will follow soon on the SIREN home page www.associazionesiren.org or in www.wirn2017.polito.it. -- Marco Corazza Department of Economics Ca' Foscari University of Venice San Giobbe, Cannaregio 873 30121 Venezia, Italy Mobile: (+39) 366 602-9134 Phone: (+39) 041 234-6921 Fax: (+39) 041 234-7444 E-mail: corazza(a)unive.it --

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