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Oct 21 - Stats seminars Geneletti and Wrobleski @ Sapienza MEMOTEF
by Francesca Panero 29 Sep '25

29 Sep '25

Buongiorno a tutti, On Tuesday 21st of October at the MEMOTEF Department, Sapienza University, we will have the pleasure to listen to the seminars of Prof Sara Geneletti<https://www.lse.ac.uk/statistics/people/sara-geneletti> and the PhD student Trevor Wrobleski<https://trevorwrobleski.github.io/> from the Department of Statistics of the London School of Economics and Political Science. The seminars will take place 10-11am in Laboratorio Antonio Amato - Sala Corsi (on the third floor of Palazzina Presidenza, the staircase at the entrance of the Economics building, Via del Castro Laurenziano 9). You can find titles and abstracts below. Best wishes, Francesca Sara Geneletti Bayesian interrupted time-series models and their applications on welfare and mental health This talk is an overview of the research output of the Epitome project funded by the Wellcome Trust. The project involved 4 research streams, and we showcase results from each one of them. The main aims of this project were to a) understand the impact of Conservative government and their "austerity" policy which led to widespread cuts in social spending and b) to develop novel methodologies in the context of interrupted time series designs using Bayesian methods. Our project found that changes in welfare benefits had a detrimental effect on mental health which also had a spatial dimension, and that the impact of the "hostile environment policy", an anti-immigration policy on the mental health of African and Carribean communities was negative. We further extended the Bayesian Structural Time Series approach to accommodate multiple data points and confirmed the impact of the hostile environment policy using this alternative method. Finally, we developed a Cohort Markov Model to evaluate the impact of the welfare benefits change by looking at how it impacted different segments of the population. Trevor Wrobleski Robustness and Sensitivity in Bayesian Dose-Response Risk Assessment Bayesian methods are increasingly central to toxicological risk assessment, yet their application to sparse dose-response data presents unique challenges. This presentation examines three drivers of analytical robustness: (i) the choice of likelihood for overdispersed quantal data, (ii) the inferential impact of selective dose-group deletion, and (iii) the sensitivity of results to prior specification. Using simulations and a case study of antimony trioxide carcinogenicity, we quantify the impact of these choices on benchmark dose (BMD) estimates and the posterior distribution, using metrics like Mean Squared Error and symmetrized Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Our findings show that modeling overdispersion with a Beta-Binomial likelihood is important for accurate uncertainty quantification. We also demonstrate that deleting informative mid-range dose groups can degrade precision and shift inference. Finally, for the Dichotomous Hill model, the prior on the Hill coefficient is the dominant lever on the BMD, capable of inducing multi-fold changes in the risk estimate. ------------------------------------------- Dr Francesca Panero (she/her) Assistant Professor in Statistics (RTT), Department of Methods and Models for Economics, Territory and Finance Sapienza University, Rome Visiting Fellow, Department of Statistics London School of Economics and Political Science Visiting Lecturer, Faculty of Informatics Università della Svizzera Italiana Website: https://francescapanero.github.io

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Seminario di Matematica, Scienza e Società al Dipartimento di Matematica- Sapienza
by Faggionato, Alessandra 29 Sep '25

29 Sep '25

Buongiorno, ricevo e con piacere inoltro. Buona giornata Alessandra ************************************************************* Avviso di seminario di Matematica, Scienza & Società Lunedì 6 ottobre 2025, alle ore 17.00 Sala di Consiglio del Dipartimento di Matematica G. Castelnuovo di Sapienza Università di Roma *Guido Barbujani (Università di Ferrara)* *Evoluzione della pigmentazione negli europei della preistoria* Sommario Oggi sembra scontato che chi ha origini europee abbia anche la pelle bianca, ma è così solo da poche generazioni. Lo studio del DNA antico permette di ricostruire come e quando sia cambiato il nostro aspetto (e anche quello dei nostri parenti neandertaliani), attraverso millenni di selezione naturale e migrazioni. -- ************************************************* Prof. Alessandra Faggionato https://www1.mat.uniroma1.it/people/faggionato/ Department of Mathematics University "La Sapienza" Piazzale Aldo Moro, 5 00185 - Rome Office 123, first floor *************************************************

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Fwd: Fwd: posizione PhD a Uni Basel
by Marco Romito 28 Sep '25

28 Sep '25

Ricevo e volentieri inoltro m. -------- Forwarded Message -------- Subject: Fwd: posizione PhD a Uni Basel From: Umberto PAPPALETTERA <umberto.pappalettera(a)alumni.sns.it> Cari colleghi, Desidero attirare la vostra attenzione su un posto di PhD in Matematica attualmente disponibile presso l’Università di Basilea, nel gruppo di ricerca del Prof. Gianluca Crippa. La posizione è finanziata dal grant SNF Ambizione “Investigating Anomalous Behaviour in Turbulent Fluids through Analytical and Probabilistic Methods” (grant numero 233216). La data di inizio è gennaio 2026, ma può essere posticipata fino a giugno 2026. La durata del dottorato è di 4 anni. Per maggiori informazioni https://jobs.unibas.ch/offene-stellen/phd-position-in-mathematics/cbbd6a7f-… Cordiali saluti, Umberto Pappalettera

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Seminario Padova - Simone Baldassarri
by alekos.cecchin＠unipd.it 26 Sep '25

26 Sep '25

Buongiorno a tutti, Vorremmo segnalarvi che venerdì prossimo (3 Ottobre) in aula 2AB40 (Torre Archimede, Università di Padova) ci sarà un seminario per il ciclo di seminari in Probabilità e Finanza di: Simone Baldassarri (Gran Sasso Science Institute (GSSI)) <https://sites.google.com/view/simonebaldassarri> https://sites.google.com/view/simonebaldassarri Title: How opinions evolve on dense dynamic random graphs Date: October 3, 2025, at 14:30, 2AB40 Abstract: Describing the evolution of dynamic networks together with dynamic processes running on them constitutes a major challenge in network science. Despite considerable efforts in past years, and notable progress on an intuitive and approximative level, our mathematical understanding of such systems is still in its infancy. The focus of this talk will be two-opinion voter models on dense dynamic random graphs. The goal is to understand and describe the occurrence of consensus versus polarisation over long periods of time. The former means that all vertices have the same opinion, the latter means that the vertices split into two communities with different opinions and few disagreeing edges. We consider three models for the joint dynamics of opinions and graphs: one with one-way feedback and two with two-way feedback. Key results cover functional laws of large numbers for the densities of the two opinions, functional laws of large numbers for the dynamic random graphs in the space of graphons, and a characterisation of the limiting densities in terms of Beta-distributions. This talk is based on a joint work with P. Braunsteins, F. den Hollander and Michel Mandjes. Vi aspettiamo numerosi! Alberto Chiarini e Alekos Cecchin Sito web del seminario: https://www.math.unipd.it/~chiarini/seminars/

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Workshop "Impact of the human activities on the environment and social making in an heterogenous setting: mathematical models and policy implications"
by Marta Leocata 26 Sep '25

26 Sep '25

Dear colleagues, We are glad to announce the workshop “Mathematical Models for the Impact of Human Activities on the Environment and Economic Decision Making", to be held in Luiss Campus, Rome, from October 1 to 3, 2025. This event is part of the PRIN 2022 Project with the name “Impact of the human activities on the environment and social making in an heterogenous setting: mathematical models and policy implications", funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research. For further information, please refer to the workshop website https://sites.google.com/view/workshopprin20223pnj8k/home-page Workshop PRIN20223PNJ8K sites.google.com Registration is free, but mandatory at the link: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdex2tns1McoyT3XKfemXBpc0T9uAcgd-x… Should you need any further information, please do not hesitate to contact us at mleocata(a)luiss.it <mailto:mleocata@luiss.it>, abondi(a)luiss.it <mailto:abondi@luiss.it>. Best regards, The Organizers

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Seminario on-line PRISMA lunedì 6 ottobre 2025 - C. Franceschini & F. Sau
by Sonia Mazzucchi 25 Sep '25

25 Sep '25

Seminari on-line del gruppo UMI - PRISMA (http://www.umi-prisma.polito.it/) I seminari PRISMA hanno un formato di "colloquium" per creare un'occasione di scambio e discussione con tutta la comunità dei probabilisti e statistici italiani. Ogni giornata comprende due relatori che tengono due seminari di 30 minuti strettamente connessi, per presentare alla comunità una prospettiva sul proprio ambito di ricerca. Dallo scorso anno le registrazioni dei seminari vengono pubblicate sul canale YouTube dell'UMI: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLmySpc-jrtAMq84VH71evyqPc1hl6eEQb Il prossimo appuntamento è per *lunedì 6 ottobre* 2025. I relatori saranno *Chiara Franceschini* (Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia) e *Federico Sau* (Università di Milano Statale) che parleranno di: *Sistemi interagenti del non-equilibrio: dualità e gap spettrali* con il seguente orario: 16:00 Primo seminario 16:30 Pausa e discussione 16:45 Secondo seminario 17:15 Conclusione e discussione Trovate di seguito il riassunto. I seminari verranno trasmessi via Zoom al seguente link: https://unitn.zoom.us/j/83547578084 ID riunione: 835 4757 8084 Codice d’accesso: 873866 Vi aspettiamo numerosi! Alberto Chiarini e Sonia Mazzucchi %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% RELATORI: Chiara Franceschini (Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia) e Federico Sau (Università di Milano Statale) TITOLO: Sistemi interagenti del non-equilibrio: dualità e gap spettrali RIASSUNTO: In questo seminario verranno presentati alcuni modelli di sistemi interagenti con spin sia discreti che continui. Tra gli esempi principali figurano il modello di Kipnis-Marchioro-Presutti (1982) e il processo armonico recentemente introdotto. Quando questi modelli sono studiati su un reticolo unidimensionale in contatto con reservoir ai bordi, costituiscono un setting classico per l’analisi di fenomeni tipici della meccanica statistica fuori dall’equilibrio. Tutti i modelli considerati sono associati alla Lie algebra su(1,1) e condividono diverse caratteristiche strutturali, tra cui la proprietà di dualità. Nella prima parte del seminario introdurremo il concetto di dualità per i processi di Markov, illustrando come esso consenta di derivare limiti di scala macroscopici (come l’equazione idrodinamica e i principi di grandi deviazioni) e ottenere informazioni sulla misura stazionaria fuori dall’equilibrio, esplicitamente nota solo per alcuni casi specifici. Nella seconda parte prenderemo in esame modelli definiti anche su grafi arbitrari, focalizzandoci sullo studio del gap spettrale e sulla convergenza all’equilibrio.

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Fwd: Three-year (Post)doctoral position in functional data analysis at HU Berlin
by Enea Bongiorno 25 Sep '25

25 Sep '25

ricevo e inoltro Enea ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Sonja Greven <Sonja.Greven(a)hu-berlin.de> Date: Wed, 24 Sept 2025 at 13:16 Subject: Three-year (Post)doctoral position in functional data analysis at HU Berlin To: Sonja Greven <sonja.greven(a)hu-berlin.de> Dear colleagues, I have the following three year full-time (post)doctoral position in a DFG-project on functional and shape data analysis advertised. I would greatly appreciate it if you could forward to suitable students / colleagues (or email lists). Many thanks and best wishes, Sonja *Research fellow (m/f/d) at the Chair of Statistics with expected full-time employment * *- E 13 TV-L HU (third-party funding limited to 3 years)* The Chair of Statistics at Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin is looking for a research fellow within the project "Flexible regression methods for curve and shape data" funded by the German Research Foundation (2nd funding period). This project in the field of functional data analysis develops statistical methods for curve and shape-valued observations. Job description: - scientific service in research in the third-party funded project "Flexible regression methods for curve and shape data" - development of statistical methods in the field of functional data analysis - scientific dissemination of the project results - tasks for personal scientific qualification Requirements: - completed scientific university education in statistics, mathematics, data science or a related field with statistical methodological focus, PhD desirable - very good command of written and spoken English (min. B2) - solid command of programming languages (preferably R and Python) - ability to develop statistical methods and engage in interdisciplinary collaboration - strong teamwork and communication skills We offer integration into a lively and interdisciplinary team, family-friendly working hours and an excellent research environment. We support career development through opportunities for further training and mentoring. Please send your application (including cover letter, CV, relevant certificates and grades as well as contact details of two academic references) within 4 weeks, referencing the job ID DR/192/25 to Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Prof. Dr. Sonja Greven (located: Spandauer Straße 1), Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin or preferably in electronic form as a single PDF file (max. 10 MB) to stat(a)wiwi.hu-berlin.de with CC to sonja.greven(a)hu-berlin.de. For further information please contact Prof. Sonja Greven. The Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin is seeking to increase the proportion of women in research and teaching, and specifically encourages qualified female scholars to apply. Severely disabled applicants with equivalent qualifications will be given preferential consideration. People with an immigration history are specifically encouraged to apply. Since we will not return your documents, please submit copies in the application only. Data protection information on the processing of your personal data in the context of the tender and selection procedure can be found on the homepage of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin: https://hu.berlin/DSGVO. Please visit our website www.hu-berlin.de/stellenangebote, which gives you access to the legally binding German version. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Dr. Sonja Greven Chair of Statistics School of Business and Economics Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin Spandauer Str. 1, room 402 D-10178 Berlin Phone: +49-30-2093-99509 https://hu.berlin/sg ---------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Enea G. Bongiorno, Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale - Amedeo Avogadro Via Perrone 18, 28100, Novara, Italia Phone: +390321375317 enea.bongiorno(a)uniupo.it upobook.uniupo.it/enea.bongiorno ------ Math-Stat Seminars at UPO seminari-ms.uniupo.it/home-page ------

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QFinLab Seminar - Anna Maria Gambaro (Università del Piemonte Orientale) - 1/10/2025, 12:15 @ Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano
by Alessandro Calvia 25 Sep '25

25 Sep '25

Dear colleagues, you are all invited to participate in the following seminar organized by QFinLab - Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano. Wednesday, 1 October 2025, 12.15-13.15 Seminar room, third floor, building 14, Via Bonardi 9, Milano (Leonardo Campus) Anna Maria Gambaro (Università del Piemonte Orientale) Title: Functional PCA for Risk-Neutral densities in Bayes Hilbert space. Abstract: In this work, we investigate the main drivers of risk-neutral densities of quoted stocks, using the functional principal component analysis (FPCA). To this end, we first construct a historical series of risk-neutral densities corresponding to quoted option prices with fixed time to maturity, using exponential expansions of orthogonal polynomials. Then, we apply the centered log-ratio transformation (CLRT) to the extracted densities and we perform the FPCA in the Bayes–Hilbert space. The CLRT provides an isometric isomorphism between the Bayes space of square log-integrable densities and the classical Hilbert space of square-integrable functions. As a result, the projected data onto the principal component basis correspond to the CLRT-transformed densities, and the application of the inverse CLRT yields proper density functions. Furthermore, by modeling the historical series of FPCA loadings as a stochastic process, we exploit the FPCA representation for forecasting purposes. Finally, we discuss extensions of this framework to cross-asset analyses and to the modeling of option price surfaces. This is a joint work with A. Amici e G. Fusai. Attendance is also possible online (Microsoft Teams), clicking here.<https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_YmFlY2M5OWEtYzg1OS00…> All news can be found on the QFinLab webpage<https://www.qfinlab.polimi.it/seminars-and-meetings/>. The organizers: Michele Azzone and Alessandro Calvia.

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Workshop on “Transition Risks and Climate Challenges: Interdisciplinary Perspectives”
by Daniele Marazzina 24 Sep '25

24 Sep '25

Cari colleghi il 27 ottobre si terrà presso il Politecnico di Milano, campus Bovisa, il seguente workshop https://polimi-dig.netlify.app/it/public-events/workshop-on-transition-risk… nell'ambito del progetto PRIN 2022 PNRR "Measuring, managing and hedging indirect climate-transition risk". La partecipazione è gratuita, si richiede per motivi organizzativi la registrazione al link sopra riportato entro il 15 ottobre 2025. Un caro saluto Daniele Marazzina Politecnico di Milano Dipartimento di Matematica >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Dear colleagues, On October 27, the following workshop will take place at Politecnico di Milano, Bovisa campus: Workshop on Transition Risks and Climate Challenges – Interdisciplinary Perspectives<https://polimi-dig.netlify.app/it/public-events/workshop-on-transition-risk…> The event is organized within the framework of the PRIN 2022 PNRR project “Measuring, managing and hedging indirect climate-transition risk.” Participation is free of charge. For organizational reasons, registration via the link above is required by October 15, 2025. Best regards, Daniele Marazzina Politecnico di Milano Math Department

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Third Call for Sessions: The 5th Italian Meeting on Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Palermo, June 8-12, 2026
by GIUSEPPE SANFILIPPO 23 Sep '25

23 Sep '25

Third call for Sessions: The 5th Italian Meeting on Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Palermo, June 8-12, 2026 (Apologies if you receive multiple copies of this message) ========================================= Conference Announcement ========================================= The 5th Italian Meeting on Probability and Mathematical Statistics will take place in Palermo, Italy, from June 8 to 12, 2026. Website: https://probabilitypalermo2026.unipa.it ======================== Key Dates ======================== Contributed Session submission deadline: SEPTEMBER 30, 2025 Notification of acceptance: November 15, 2025 Abstract submission for accepted CS: December 31, 2025 Early registration deadline: February 28, 2026 ================================ Submission Guidelines for a CS ================================ We invite all researchers interested in contributing to the event to submit proposals for Contributed Sessions. The participation of young researchers and PhD students working in Italy or abroad is strongly encouraged. A Contributed Session (CS) consists of four presentations by speakers invited by one or two organizers (organizers may also be among the speakers). In the “Contributed Session” submission form, please include: - The session title - The names of the 4 speakers - A short description of the session To submit a CS, please visit: https://probabilitypalermo2026.unipa.it/contributed-sessions/ ============= Description ============= Established in 2017, the Italian Meeting on Probability and Mathematical Statistics aims to bring together Italian and international researchers with shared interests in any field of probability and mathematical statistics, promoting the dissemination of recent scientific results and fostering academic exchange. The first meeting was held in Turin in 2017. Since then, the meetings have taken place in Vietri sul Mare (2019), Bologna (2022), and Rome (2024). The 5th edition, promoted by the PRISMA group (https://umi-prisma.polito.it/) of the Italian Mathematical Union (UMI), will be held in Palermo, Italy, from June 8 to 12, 2026, at the Campus of the University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, (https://probabilitypalermo2026.unipa.it/general-information/). ================ Plenary Speakers ================ We are pleased to announce the following confirmed plenary speakers (https://probabilitypalermo2026.unipa.it/invited-speakers/): - Francesca Biagini (LMU, Germany); - Stefano Favaro (University of Turin and Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy); - Franco Flandoli (Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa, Italy); - Silvio Micali (MIT, USA); - Giuseppe Savaré (Bocconi University, Italy). ======================== Steering Committee ======================== Giacomo Ascione, Scuola Superiore Meridionale, Naples Claudia Ceci, Sapienza University of Rome Paolo Dai Pra, University of Verona Antonio Di Crescenzo, University of Salerno Marco Fuhrman, University of Milan Domenico Marinucci, University of Rome “Tor Vergata” Laura Sacerdote, University of Turin Giuseppe Sanfilippo, University of Palermo Enrico Scalas, Sapienza University of Rome Barbara Trivellato, Polytechnic University of Turin ======================== Local Committee ======================== https://probabilitypalermo2026.unipa.it/committees/

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