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seminario claudio landim
by Faggionato, Alessandra 26 Feb '14

26 Feb '14

Buongiorno, Martedi' 4 marzo Claudio Landim terra' un seminario al Dipartimento di Matematica (Sapienza, Roma). sotto trovate i dettagli. cordiali saluti alessandra faggionato Martedi' 4 Marzo, Aula C (Dip. Matematica, Univ. Sapienza), ore 14:30 Speaker: C. Landim (IMPA Rio De Janeiro, CNRS Rouen) Title: Zero-temperature limit of the Kawasaki dynamics for the Ising lattice gas in a large two-dimensional torus Abstract: We consider the Kawasaki dynamics at inverse temperature $\beta$ for the Ising lattice gas on a two-dimensional square of length $2L+1$ with periodic boundary conditions. We assume that initially the particles form a square of length $n$, which may increase, as well as $L$, with $\beta$. We show that in a proper time scale $L^2\, \theta_\beta$ particles form almost always a square and that this square evolves as a Brownian motion when the temperature vanishes. -- Prof. Alessandra Faggionato Department of Mathematics University La Sapienza Piazzale A. Moro, 2 00186 Rome - Italy

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FW: QP circulation, and any others you know of ...
by Franco Fagnola 25 Feb '14

25 Feb '14

Buongiorno, prego far circolare i seguenti bandi dell'Universit? di Lancaster (UK). Grazie e cordiali saluti, Franco Fagnola ================== We have a Chair and Lectureship position in Probability in Lancaster. http://hr-jobs.lancs.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx?ref=A905 http://hr-jobs.lancs.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx?ref=A906 The deadline for both is 23rd March.

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Colloquium Fabio Lucio Toninelli a Roma Tre
by pietro caputo 21 Feb '14

21 Feb '14

Mercoledi' 26 febbraio 2014 Ore 16:00, Aula F Dip. Matematica e Fisica Roma Tre EDIFICIO AULE LARGO SAN L. MURIALDO,1 Colloquium di Matematica Fabio Toninelli (Universita' di Lione) Random tilings, Glauber dynamics and macroscopic shapes I "piastrellamenti" (tiling) del piano sono un oggetto classico in meccanica statistica e combinatoria. Se le "piastrelle" sono a forma di losanga, si ha una corrispondenza esatta con le interfacce del modello di Ising 3-dimensionale a temperatura nulla. A ogni piastrellamento e' possibile associare una funzione di altezza (superficie discreta). E' ben noto [Cohn-Kenyon-Propp] che, se la taglia della regione U da piastrellare tende all'infinito, la funzione altezza associata a un piastrellamento scelto uniformemente tende verso una certa forma limite macroscopica che risolve una PDE ellittica non-lineare. Sull'insieme dei piastrellamenti si puo' definire una dinamica stocastica che corrisponde alla dinamica di Glauber a temperatura zero per il modello di Ising. Un problema classico e' quello di stimare il tempo (mixing time) che la dinamica richiede per raggiungere l'equilibrio (la misura uniforme). La congettura, basata sull'idea euristica che l'interfaccia evolve seguendo un'equazione di tipo "movimento per curvatura media", e' che il mixing time cresca essenzialmente come il quadrato del diametro della regione U. Il nostro risultato principale e' una prova di questa congettura, sotto l'ipotesi che la forma macroscopica non presenti singolarita'. Basato su lavori in collaborazione con P. Caputo, B. Laslier e F. Martinelli.

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Mercati Energetici e Metodi Quantitativi - edizione 2014
by Tiziano Vargiolu 21 Feb '14

21 Feb '14

Buongiorno, volevamo informarti che anche quest'anno si ripeter? il workshop "Mercati Energetici e Metodi Quantitativi: un Ponte tra Universit? e Aziende". Trovi tutte le informazioni sul sito web http://www.unponte2014.stat.unipd.it/ Sono aperte le submission per gli speaker (accademici e professionisti provenienti da aziende) che desiderino presentare un talk. Inoltre, quest'anno abbiamo deciso di estendere l'iniziativa organizzando, nei due giorni precedenti la conferenza, quattro tutorial sui seguenti argomenti: - Introduzione ai mercati dell'energia e del gas - Rischio di credito e di controparte nei mercati energetici - Strumenti di analisi e di previsione per i mercati energetici. - Tecniche di gestione di portafoglio e di ottimizzazione: i contratti strutturati nei mercati dell'energia. Tutte le informazioni sui tutorial si trovano alla pagina http://events.math.unipd.it/memq2014/ In attesa di rincontrarci a Padova, porgiamo i nostri pi? Cordiali Saluti, gli Organizzatori Giorgia Callegaro Enrico Edoli Francesco Lisi Tiziano Vargiolu

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ABS14- APPLIED BAYESIAN NONPARAMETRICS
by raffaele argiento 21 Feb '14

21 Feb '14

Registration is now open for *ABS14*, the 2014 edition of the Applied Bayesian Statistics School, which has been running since 2004. The topic of this year is *APPLIED BAYESIAN NONPARAMETRICS*. The lecturers will be Michael JORDAN (Berkeley) and Francois CARON (Oxford). The school will be held at Villa del Grumello, Como, Italy, from June 16 till 20, 2014. The school webpage is www.mi.imati.cnr.it/conferences/abs14.html Please note that a very limited number of participants (35) will be admitted. There is a late registration fee after April, 1st. For information please contact abs14(a)mi.imati.cnr.it Best regards, Raffaele Argiento Executive director of ABS14 -- Dr Raffaele Argiento CNR IMATI -- Milano Tel. +39 02 23699.529 Web www.mi.imati.cnr.it/raffaele

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University of Kent-PhD Scholarship
by Fabrizio Leisen 20 Feb '14

20 Feb '14

Con preghiera di diffusione. Aggiungo che la borsa partirebbe da Settembre 2014. Cordiali Saluti, Fabrizio Leisen Postgraduate Scholarship Non-parametric priors for Bayesian inference *University* *of* *Kent* School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science *Project:** Non-parametric priors for Bayesian Inference* *Supervisor:** Fabrizio Leisen* The use of Bayesian non-parametric (BNP) priors in applied statistical modelling has become increasingly popular in the last few years. From the seminal paper of Ferguson (1973, Annals of Statistics), the Dirichlet Process and its extensions have been increasingly used to address inferential problems in many fields. Examples range from variable selection in genetics to linguistics, psychology, human learning, image segmentation and applications to the neurosciences. The project aims to introduce and/or investigate new Bayesian non-parametric priors that can be used to describe a wide spectrum of phenomena. Keywords include: - Dirichlet and Pitman Yor Processes - Vectors of Dependent random probability measures - Non-exchangeable species sampling sequences *The* *School* *of* *Mathematics,* *Statistics* *and* *Actuarial* *Science* The School offers a lively research culture with a thriving group of around 250 taught postgraduates students and almost 100 postgraduate students, postdoctoral researchers and academic staff. Kent is among the best research-intensive universities in the UK. In the 2008 Research Assessment Exercise (RAE), the university was ranked 24th out of 159 institutions for its world-leading research, with six of our subject areas (including statistics) in the top tennationwide. Details of the research undertaken by the School can be found at: http://www.kent.ac.uk/smsas/postgraduate/phd-applications.html *The* *funding* This scholarship is partially funded by the FP7 Marie Curie Career Integration Grant "Flexible Bayesian non-parametric priors" held by Fabrizio Leisen. The scholarship is offered at the standard UK Research Councils' rate (currently£13,863) and will cover the tuition fees for a period of 3.5 years subject to satisfactory progress at each review period. *Entry* *Requirements* All candidates must have an excellent academic track record in Mathematics or Statistics or related disciplines and hold a good Honours degree in a relevant subject or equivalent. A Masters qualification such as an MSc or MMath orresearch experience would be advantageous. *To* *apply* To apply complete the online application form available by clicking the *'Apply'* button below or by visiting: http://www.kent.ac.uk/studying/postgrad/apply/index.html and select School research Scholarship under `How are you intendingto fund your studies?' and mention this research project in the research proposal. Closing date: 31st March 2014. -- Fabrizio Leisen Senior Lecturer in Statistics School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Sciences Cornwallis Building, University of Kent, Canterbury, CT2 7NF http://sites.google.com/site/fabrizioleisen/

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de Finetti Risk Seminar - febbraio 2014
by Emanuela Rosazza Gianin 20 Feb '14

20 Feb '14

On behalf of the Scientific Committee of The de Finetti Risk Seminars - on the Mathematical Theory of Economics and Finance in Milano, we are glad to invite you to participate at the "de Finetti Risk Seminar" on February 26, 2014 at 18.00 with the Lecture Evaluation of long-dated investments under uncertain growth trend, volatility, and catastrophes CHRISTIAN GOLLIER Toulouse School of Economics LOCATION: The seminar will be held on Wedsnesday, February 26, at 18.00 at room 3-E4-SR03, Bocconi University, Via Roentgen 1, Milano. A refreshment will be offered at 17.30. Scientific Committee: Prof. Marco Frittelli (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) Prof. Fabio Maccheroni (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Massimo Marinacci (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Emanuela Rosazza Gianin (Univ. Milano-Bicocca) Dott. Simone Cerreia-Voglio (Univ. Bocconi) Dott. Marco Maggis (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) ******************************************************************************************* Emanuela Rosazza Gianin Dipartimento di Metodi Quantitativi per le Scienze Economiche ed Aziendali Università di Milano Bicocca Edificio U7 - 4° Piano Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8 20126 Milano Tel. 02 64483208 Fax. 02 64483105 e-mail: emanuela.rosazza1(a)unimib.it *******************************************************************************************

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Avviso di seminario :: Mortera@DSS (Scienze Statistiche, Sapienza)
by Pierpaolo Brutti 17 Feb '14

17 Feb '14

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- A v v i s o d i S e m i n a r i o ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Venerdì 21 Febbraio, ore 11am ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stanza 34 Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Sapienza Università di Roma JULIA MORTERA (Fac. di Economia, Università degli Studi di Roma3) terrà un seminario dal titolo ANALYSIS OF FORENSIC DNA MIXTURES tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maggiori informazioni sui seminari presso il DSS sono consultabili a quest'indirizzo: http://goo.gl/Y6OQYm Saluti Pierpaolo Brutti - Fulvio De Santis --- Summary DNA is now routinely used in criminal investigations and court cases, although DNA samples taken at crime scenes are of varying quality and therefore present challenging problems for their interpretation. We present a statistical model for the quantitative peak information obtained from an electropherogram (EPG) of a forensic DNA sample and illustrate its potential use for the analysis of criminal cases. In contrast to most previously used methods, we directly model the peak height information and incorporates important artefacts associated with the production of the EPG. Our model has a number of unknown parameters, and we show that these can be estimated by the method of maximum likelihood in the presence of multiple unknown contributors, and their approximate standard errors calculated; the computations exploit a Bayesian network representation of the model. A case example from a UK trial, as reported in the literature, is used to illustrate the efficacy and use of the model, both in finding likelihood ratios to quantify the strength of evidence, and in the deconvolution of mixtures for the purpose of finding likely profiles of one or more unknown contributors to a DNA sample. Our model is readily extended to simultaneous analysis of more than one mixture as illustrated in a case example. We show that combination of evidence from several samples may give an evidential strength close to that of a single source trace and thus modelling of peak height information provides for a potentially very efficient mixture analysis. Joint work with Robert Cowell, Therese Graversen and Steffen Lauritzen

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Research fellowship at the Insitute of Economics, Scuola Sant'Anna Pisa
by Enrico Scalas 17 Feb '14

17 Feb '14

Car* collegh*, mi hanno segnalato questa posizione post-dottorale presso Economia al Sant'Anna: http://www.sssup.it/context_elenco.jsp?ID_LINK=12550&area=6&id_context=44264 Cercano una persona che ben conosca probabilita' e teoria dei processi stocastici e, eventualmente, e' gradita una formazione in finanza. Per ulteriori infomazioni si puo' scrivere al Prof. Giulio Bottazzi: g.bottazzi(a)sssup.it Per favore, fate circolare il link alle persone interessate che conoscete. Cordiali saluti, Enrico Scalas Professor of Statistics and Probability University of Sussex http://www.sussex.ac.uk/maths/people/peoplelists/person/330303

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1 posto di Maitre de Conferences e 1 di Professore in Probabilita' all'Universite' Lyon 1
by Fabio Toninelli 17 Feb '14

17 Feb '14

Gentili colleghi all'Universita' Lyon 1 e' aperto un concorso per un posto di Maitre de Conferences in probabilità e per un posto di Professore in Probabilita' (inizio: 1 settembre 2014). Entrambe le posizioni sono permanenti. Il profilo scientifico e' largo, http://math.univ-lyon1.fr/recrutements/profils_14/MCF_P_en.pdf e http://math.univ-lyon1.fr/recrutements/profils_14/PR_en.pdf. I temi di ricerca del gruppo di probabilità' di Lyon 1 sono descritti qui: http://math.univ-lyon1.fr/icj/?option=theme&th=5 I candidati interessati devono spedire elettronicamente il loro dossier ENTRO IL 12 MARZO 2014, tramite il sito https://galaxie.enseignementsup-recherche.gouv.fr/antares/can/index.jsp Qualche consiglio su come comporre il dossier di candidatura si trova qui: http://postes.smai.emath.fr/2014/OUTILS/conseils/index.php#it2 Attenzione: Il concorso e' aperto ai i candidati che hanno gia' passato la procedura di "Qualification" nazionale francese, oppure che hanno attualmente all'estero una posizione di livello equivalente a quelle di Maitre de Conferences o di Professore. Per ulteriori informazioni sullo svolgimento del concorso, i candidati interessati possono contattare o me (toninelli(a)math.univ-lyon1.fr) o Christophe Sabot (sabot(a)math.univ-lyon1.fr). Cordiali saluti Fabio Toninelli Institut Camille Jordan, Universite' Lyon 1 43 bd du 11 novembre 1918 69622 Villeurbanne Cedex, France Office 105, tel: +33 (0) 4 26 23 44 41

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Fwd: Saint-Flour 2014
by Marco Romito 17 Feb '14

17 Feb '14

SAINT-FLOUR 2014 - SECOND ANNOUNCEMENT Dear colleagues, Online registration is now open for the 44th Saint-Flour Probability summer school, which will be held on July 15-25. Please note the DEADLINE FOR REGISTRATION: APRIL 18 This year, the courses are: Martin HAIRER : Regularity structures Gregory MIERMONT : Aspects of random maps SPECIAL NOTICE The previously announced lecture by Sourav Chatterjee is postponed to 2015. Consequently, this year's school will feature only two courses, and its length is slightly reduced. The registration form as well as some useful information about the school can be found on the web pages: http://math.univ-bpclermont.fr/stflour/index.php (in French) http://math.univ-bpclermont.fr/stflour/stflour-en.php (in English) For registration, you will have to accept the security certificate in your browser. These pages also contain the advertisement poster of the school (in French or in English). It would be helpful for us if you could print it and post it in your department. Thank you. Please forward the above information to anyone who might be interested. Best regards, The organizing committee Christophe Bahadoran, Arnaud Guillin, Laurent Serlet stflour(a)math.univ-bpclermont.fr Laboratoire de Mathématiques CNRS UMR 6620 Université Blaise Pascal (Clermont-Ferrand 2) Complexe Universitaire des Cézeaux BP80026 F-63177 Aubière tel (+33) 4 73 40 70 50 fax (+33)4 73 40 54 50

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Seminario CHOPIN
by Matteo Ruggiero 14 Feb '14

14 Feb '14

**************************************************************** STATISTICS SEMINARS @ COLLEGIO CARLO ALBERTO **************************************************************** Venerdi' 21 Febbraio 2014 alle ore 12:00, presso la sala rossa del Collegio Carlo Alberto, Moncalieri (TO), si terra' il seguente seminario: Nicolas CHOPIN (ENSAE, France) SEQUENTIAL QUASI MONTE CARLO Abstract: We develop a new class of algorithms, SQMC (Sequential Quasi Monte Carlo), as a variant of SMC (Sequential Monte Carlo) based on low-discrepancy points. The complexity of SQMC is O(N log N) where N is the number of simulations at each iteration, and its error rate is smaller than the Monte Carlo rate O(N^{-1/2}). The only requirement to implement SQMC is the ability to write the simulation of particle x_t^n given x_{t-1}^n as a deterministic function of x_{t-1}^n and uniform variates. We show that SQMC is amenable to the same extensions as standard SMC, such as forward smoothing, backward smoothing, unbiased likelihood evaluation, and so on. In particular, SQMC may replace SMC within a PMCMC (particle Markov chain Monte Carlo) algorithm. We establish several convergence results. We provide numerical evidence in several difficult scenarios than SQMC significantly outperforms SMC in terms of approximation error. Joint work with Mathieu Gerber. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Il seminario e' organizzato dalla "de Castro" Statistics Initiative (http://www.carloalberto.org/stats) in collaborazione con il Collegio Carlo Alberto. Cordiali saluti, Matteo Ruggiero --------- Matteo Ruggiero University of Torino & Collegio Carlo Alberto http://web.econ.unito.it/ruggiero

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[Announce] "Unlocking the value of big data", Special Issue on EJASA-DSS
by stefano iacus 14 Feb '14

14 Feb '14

Call for papers for the Special Issue on "Increasing Innovation Opportunities by Unlocking the Value of Big Data" to be published on the "Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis: Decisione Support Systems and Services Evalutation" ### Guest Editors: Valentina Ndou,Faculty of Innovation for Engineering, University of Salento (ITA) Mirjeta Beqiri, Gonzaga University, Spokane, WA, (USA) Stefano M. Iacus, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan (ITA) ### Overview: The advent of new communication technologies and especially the exponential growth of social media web 2.0, from blogs, Facebook and Twitter to LinkedIn and YouTube, has created vast opportunities for firms and managers to get closer to customers, to gain a wealth of information about their behaviors and preferences, as well as to identify new market trends and new opportunities to remain competitive. It is known that firms today operate in the era of Big Data Revolution, overwhelmed with data that are available via web to almost everyone. The content and information that customers create in web 2.0 platforms constitute a valuable asset for firms to directly tap into the customer’s preferences and needs, as the most valuable source for attaining direct and reliable market information. ### Aim: Based on these recent trends, this special issue invites research articles and papers that put forth different approaches, statistical models, and decision making systems able to analyze the available data for gaining insights and creating new knowledge that leads to innovation and creativity. ### Topics: This special issue seeks original contribution on the following topics: 1. Techniques, tools, approaches, and methodologies used for analyzing data and information 2. Statistical Analysis for big data 3. Data and knowledge modelling techniques 4. Stimulating innovation and improving performance through statistical data analysis 5. Value of data for new business models, products, and services 6. Data management as a driver of performance and competitiveness 7. Value co-creation through data and information exchange 8. Transforming the value of data using real time analytics 9. Business optimization techniques through data analysis 10. Decision making process in the big data era 11. Role of statistical models in unlocking the value of web data 12. Real time analytics 13. Privacy, security, and intellectual property issues in the era of big data. ### Submission guidelines: Original research papers will be considered. ### Important Dates: Abstract submission: 20th March, 2014 Review decisions sent to authors: 20th April 2014 Full paper submission: 30th July, 2014 ### Further Information: For further information, please contact: ejasa(a)unisalento.it or visit http://siba-ese.unisalento.it/index.php/ejasa_dss/announcement/view/21

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Young Researchers Meeting on BSDEs, Numerics and Finance
by Marco Fuhrman 13 Feb '14

13 Feb '14

Trasmetto a tutti gli interessati le informazioni rilevanti e il link internet di una conferenza sulle BSDEs (Backward Stochastic Differential Equations) destinata a giovani ricercatori, che si terra' a Bordeaux, 7-9 luglio 2014. Cordialmente, Marco Fuhrman https://indico.math.cnrs.fr/conferenceDisplay.py?confId=199 This international conference is a friendly meeting of young researchers working on: Backward Stochastic Differential Equations, and the related FBSDE, Reflected BSDE, etc... Efficient numerical computation in finance and insurance Robust control, risk management and portfolio optimisation in finance and insurance Nonlinear and Imprecise Probability Location: IMB, Université de Bordeaux, France. Dates and times: Monday 7th July 2014 (14:00) - Wednesday 9th July 2012. Who: Young researchers - broadly students and researchers within 10 years of PhD. Costs: There is no registration fees. For speakers: lunches, refreshments, accommodation at the university residence (7th, 8th, 9th July 2014) and the conference dinner are included. A part of travel costs would be also reimbursed, up to an amount that will be defined after. Non-speaker participants are welcome to apply but we may not be able to guarantee the full accommodation subsidy. Registration: directly on the website by 20 April 2014. Confirmation will be sent to all qualifying participants by the beginning of May. Format: 1/2 hour talks and informal conversations, with an explicitly accessible focus. Remark: If some parts of the website are written in french, you can choose the english version on the top-right corner of the website.

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Avviso di seminario :: Aryasova@DSS (Scienze Statistiche, Sapienza)
by Pierpaolo Brutti 12 Feb '14

12 Feb '14

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- A v v i s o d i S e m i n a r i o ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Venerdì 14 Febbraio, ore 10am ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stanza 34 Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Sapienza Università di Roma OLGA ARYASOVA (Inst. of Geophysics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine) terrà un seminario dal titolo A REPRESENTATION FOR THE DERIVATIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE INITIAL DATA OF THE SOLUTION OF AN SDE WITH NON-REGULAR DRIFT tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maggiori informazioni sui seminari presso il DSS sono consultabili a quest'indirizzo: http://goo.gl/Y6OQYm Saluti Pierpaolo Brutti --- Summary (* attached *)

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Avviso di seminario :: Porcu@DSS (Scienze Statistiche, Sapienza)
by Pierpaolo Brutti 10 Feb '14

10 Feb '14

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- A v v i s o d i S e m i n a r i o ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Giovedì 13 Febbraio, ore 15am ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stanza 34 Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Sapienza Università di Roma EMILIO PORCU (Dep. de Estadística, Universidad de Valparaíso, Chile) terrà un seminario dal titolo ADAPTIVE TAPERS FOR SPACE-TIME GEOSTATISTICS tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare dando magari prima un'occhiata a... http://seismomathics.wordpress.com ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maggiori informazioni sui seminari presso il DSS sono consultabili a quest'indirizzo: http://goo.gl/Y6OQYm Saluti Giovanna Jona Lasinio - Pierpaolo Brutti - Fulvio De Santis --- Summary We propose a class of nonseparable space-time compactly supported correlation functions, termed here quasi-tapers, to mean that such correlations can be dynamically compactly supported over space or time. An important feature of the quasi-taper is given by a spatial (temporal) compact support being a decreasing function of the temporal lag (spatial distance), so that the spatial (temporal) compact support becomes smaller when the temporal (spatial) dependence becomes weaker. We propose general classes as well as some examples that generalize the Wendland tapers to the space-time setting. Then a non separable space-time taper with spatial and temporal compact support is obtained as tensor product of quasi-tapers. Our space-time taper includes all the known constructions as special cases and will be shown to have great exibility. Covariance tapering is then explored as an alternative to maximum likelihood when estimating the covariance model of a space-time Gaussian random field in the case of large datasets. The proposed quasi and space-time tapers allows to perform covariance tapering when dealing with data that are densely observed in time (space) but sparse in space (time) or densely observed both in time and space. The statistical and computational properties of the space-time covariance tapering is addressed under increasing domain asymptotics. A simulation study and two real data examples illustrate the statistical and computational performances of the covariance tapering with respect to the maximum likelihood method using the space-time tapers proposed.

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Seminario di Giovanni Puccetti presso Prometeia - Bologna
by Giacomo Scandolo 10 Feb '14

10 Feb '14

Il giorno Giovedì 13 Febbraio 2014, alle ore 14:30 presso la sede di Prometeia (sala grande, primo piano) via G.Marconi 43, Bologna Giovanni PUCCETTI (Università di Firenze) terrà un seminario su: RISK AGGREGATION AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY: SOME MESSAGES FROM THE METHODOLOGICAL FRONT Abstract. We review some of the most recent mathematical achievements in the field of Risk Aggregation and Model Uncertainty and discuss their implications on the current Basel regulatory framework, with particular emphasis on VaR/ES risk measurement. Specific issues that will be handled: - How much superadditive can VaR be? - What are the likely constraints with moving from VaR to ES? - Which kind of dependence is implied by a worst-VaR scenario? - What are the available tools to capture the model uncertainty associated with a joint risk position?

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seminario Stefano Iacus Roma Tre
by Julia Mortera 10 Feb '14

10 Feb '14

Il 19 febbario alle ore 14:30 presso l'aula seminari (III piano) Dipartimento di Economia, Universit? Roma Tre, Via Silvio D'Amico 77 il Prof. Stefano Iacus Dipartimento di Economia, Management e Metodi Quantitativi Universit? degli Studi di Milano terr? il seminario: ***Statistics over Big Data: How to Analyze 80 Millions of Tweets*** Abstract: There are several ways to analyze data coming from digitized texts and there are even more ways to analysis big amount of these data. Analyzing the sentiment expressed on social networks is both about big data and digitized text. But sentiment analysis is not just text mining, i.e. usual data mining applied to text data, because what matters is to capture the meaning of sentences in a corpora of texts whose language evolves in time and space or according to the age, the background of the writers, etc. We will discuss the most recent techniques of sentiment analysis available in the literature along with some new ideas and present some applications to the analysis of 80 millions of italian tweets to happyness and economics.

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Seminar and Mini-course of Emmanuel Bacry at the Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa
by Fabrizio Lillo 07 Feb '14

07 Feb '14

Emmanuel Bacry (CMAP, Ecole Polytechnique, France) will give a seminar at the Scuola Normale di Pisa on Thursday February 27 in Aula Bianchi at 1 pm The title and abstract are Hawkes process and applications Hawkes processes are point self-exciting point processes particularly well suited for applications. Introduced in the 70s, that have been used in very various domaines such as high-frequency financial time-series modeling or viral diffusion in social networks. After describing how they are defined and their main properties, we shall discuss some problems linked to parametric estimations (in high dimensions) as well as non parametric estimations. We will present several applications. Moreover he will give a mini-course on Modeling and analysis of high frequency financial time-series The agenda is attached below. Interested people are invited to participate. For more information, contact Fabrizio Lillo (fabrizio.lillo(a)sns.it) &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Tuesday February 25, Aula Fermi, 9.00-11.00 1- Introduction to different market and asset types - Which financial time-series for statistical analysis ? Thursday February 27, Aula Bianchi, 14.00-16.00 2- Orderbooks dynamics - Qualitative description - Some statistical elements of order books - Transaction costs - Price impact - Response function Wednesday March 5, Aula Bianchi, 14.00-16.00 3- Tick-by tick financial time-series - trading time versus physical time - ACD models - Microstructure noise Thursday March 6, Aula Bianchi, 14.00-16.00 4- Hawkes processes based tick-by-tick modeling - Microstructure noise modeling - Trading flow modeling - Response and Impact modeling ------------------------------------------------------------ Fabrizio Lillo Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa, Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita' di Palermo & Santa Fe Institute, U.S.A. Piazza dei Cavalieri 7 56126 Pisa ITALY phone: +39 050509159 web: https://sites.google.com/site/fabriziolillo9670/home

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I: postdoc position available
by Massimo Campanino 07 Feb '14

07 Feb '14

________________________________________ Da: Aernout van enter [avanenter(a)gmail.com] Inviato: giovedì 6 febbraio 2014 18.24 A: aldo(a)mat.ufmg.br; Vladas Sidoravicius; gentz(a)math.uni-bielefeld.de; gantert(a)ma.tum.de; maspm(a)bath.ac.uk; spohn(a)ma.tum.de; Massimo Campanino; Jacek Miekisz; Charles Newman; Gordon Slade Oggetto: Re: postdoc position available [https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/images/cleardot.gif] Announcement: postdoc position Groningen A one - year postdoc position is available, funded by NWO, to work on the topic of ``hidden symmetries, new and dual models of interacting particle systems.'' The project has a targeted starting date of 1 september 2014. The postdoc will work at Rijksuniversiteit Groningen and will work with the main investigators investigators A.C.D. van Enter and F. Redig (Delft University). Besides he will have the opportunity to collaborate within an international network related to this and comparable projects, situated in Modena ( C. Giardina, G. Carinci) and Warwick ( S. Grosskinsky). More information and details about the project and the position can be obtained from F. Redig (http://dutiosb.twi.tudelft.nl/~redig<http://dutiosb.twi.tudelft.nl/%7Eredig>)and A.C.D. van Enter (http://www.math.rug.nl/dsmp/People/AernoutvanEnter). Interested candidates are asked to send a letter of motivation and CV to F. Redig (f.h.j.redig(a)tudelft.nl<mailto:f.h.j.redig@tudelft.nl>) and A.C.D. van Enter (avanenter(a)gmail.com<mailto:avanenter@gmail.com>) ___________________ Prof.dr A.C.D. van Enter University of Groningen Department of Mathematics P.O. Box 800 9700 AV Groningen The Netherlands Telephone: +31 50 3633939<tel:%2B31%2050%203633939> (secretary) +31 50 3634967<tel:%2B31%2050%203634967> (extension) +31 50 3633800<tel:%2B31%2050%203633800> (telefax) +31 50 5266329<tel:%2B31%2050%205266329> (home) Email: aenter(a)phys.rug.nl<mailto:aenter@phys.rug.nl> URL: http://www.math.rug.nl/~aente<http://www.math.rug.nl/%7Eaenter>

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Workshop MathStatNeuro 2-4 July Copenhagen
by Massimiliano Tamborrino 05 Feb '14

05 Feb '14

Dear all, Rune Berg, Susanne Ditlevsen and I organize a 3-days workshop in Copenhagen, 2nd-4th of July, "Mathematical Modeling and Statistical Analysis in Neuroscience", funded by the Dynamical Systems Interdisciplinary Network, University of Copenhagen, www.dsin.ku.dk. The idea is to bring together theoretical, experimental and computational researchers who are working on various topics in neuroscience. There is no conference fee and we hope to offer free lunch for all registered participants. Conference website homepage is: http://www.math.ku.dk/english/research/conferences/mathstatneuro2014 If you would like to attend, please register within the 15th May 2014 at: http://www.math.ku.dk/english/research/conferences/mathstatneuro2014/regist… We hope to welcome you in Copenhagen! Best wishes, Susanne, Rune and Massimiliano -- --------------------------------- Dr. Massimiliano Tamborrino Postdoctoral fellow Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Copenhagen email: mt(a)math.ku.dk URL: http://www.math.ku.dk/~mt/ Universitetsparken 5 DK-2100 Kobenhavn Ø, Denmark -----------------------------------------

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Seminario Cristina Di Girolami a Milano-Bicocca - cambio aula
by federica.masiero＠unimib.it 05 Feb '14

05 Feb '14

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seminari di O. Aryasova e E. Orsingher a Pisa
by Marco Romito 04 Feb '14

04 Feb '14

Il giorno 11 febbraio 2014, presso l'aula seminari del Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Università di Pisa, si terranno i seguenti seminari: 10:30 Olga Aryasova (Institute of Geophysics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine): A representation for the derivative with respect to the initial data of the solution of an SDE with non-regular drift 11:30 E. Orsingher (Roma Sapienza): Random flights Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. m. _______________________________________________ abstract Aryasova We consider a multidimensional SDE with an identity diffusion matrix and a drift vector being a bounded measurable vector field. According to [Ver81] there exists a unique strong solution to such an equation. Recently the Sobolev differentiability of the solution with respect to the initial data was proved under rather weak assumptions on the drift (c.f. [Fed13,Moh12]). If the drift coefficient is smooth the derivative can be represent as a solution of an integral equation. For non-regular drift in dimension one such a representation was obtained using the local time of the initial process (see [Ary12,Att10]). It is well known that the solution does not have a local time at a point in multidimensional situation. We obtained the representation of the derivative using the theory of continuous additive functionals developed by Dynkin [Dyn63]. This method can be considered as a generalization of the local time approach to the multidimensional case. [Ary12] O. V. Aryasova and A. Yu. Pilipenko, On properties of a flow generated by an SDE with discontinuous drift, Electron. J. Probab. 17:no. 106, 1--20, 2012. [Att10] S. Attanasio, Stochastic flows of diffeomorphisms for one-dimensional {SDE} with discontinuous drift, Electron. Commun. Probab. 15:no. 20, 213--226, 2010. [Dyn63] E. B. Dynkin, Markov Processes, Fizmatlit, Moscow, 1963. [Translated from the Russian to the English by J. Fabius, V. Greenberg, A. Maitra, and G. Majone. Academic Press, New York; Springer, Berlin, 1965. vol. 1, xii + 365 pp.; vol. 2, viii + 274 pp.]. [Fed13] E. Fedrizzi and F. Flandoli, Hölder flow and differentiability for {SDE}s with nonregular drift, Stochastic Analysis and Applications, 31(4):708--736, 2013. [Moh12] S. E. A. Mohammed, T. Nilssen, and F. Proske, Sobolev differentiable stochastic flows of SDE's with measurable drift and applications, arXiv:1204.3867. [Ver81] A. Y. Veretennikov, On strong solutions and explicit formulas for solutions of stochastic integral equations, Math. USSR Sborn, 39(3):387--403, 1981. _______________________________________________ abstract Orsingher In this talk we present different types of random flights and examine their dynamics, probability laws and governing equations. We first consider the telegraph process (a random flight on the line), discuss its distribution, the connections with the telegraph equations, the first-passage time and the limiting case. We consider also the asymmetric telegraph process and its reduction to the symmetric one by means of relativistic transformations. Planar motions with a finite number of directions (in particular, four orthogonal directions) and an infinite number of directions, chosen at Poisson times with uniform law, are examined and several explicit distributions derived. A particular attention is devoted to the second model, where conditional and unconditional distributions are presented and the related equation of damped planar vibrations probabilistically derived. Random flights in R^d are subsequently considered and characteristic functions of the position of moving particles performing the random flights, obtained. The cases d = 2, d = 4, are investigated in detail. We present random flights in R^d with Dirichlet joint distribution for displacements, hyper-spherical uniform law for the orientation of steps and with a fractional Poisson number of changes of direction. Two types of fractional extensions of the above material are presented. The first one is obtained by considering Dzerbayshan-Caputo types of time- fractional derivatives. The second fractional extension is obtained by considering fractionalisation of Klein-Gordon equations and by applying the McBride approach to fractional powers of Bessel-type operators.

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Mini corso "Interest Rates Modelling", SNS Pisa
by Giacomo Bormetti 04 Feb '14

04 Feb '14

Il giorno venerdì 21 Febbraio presso la Scuola Normale Superiore, Andrea Pallavicini (Banca IMI, Imperial College) terrà un mini-corso dal titolo "Interest-Rates Modelling in Collateralized Markets with Multiple Yield Curves". Segue il programma: Aula Fermi (Palazzo della Carovana), 10:00 – 12:00 The Money Market: central bank and interbank market reference rates The Credit Crunch and the Raising of the Basis Aula Dini (Palazzo Castelletto), 14:00 – 16:00 Pricing in Collateralized Markets: discounting and forwarding curves The HJM Framework: single-curve and multiple-curve modeling Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Saluti, Giacomo

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risk and stochastics conference 2014, LSE (fwd)
by Tiziano Vargiolu 04 Feb '14

04 Feb '14

---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2014 21:12:10 +0000 From: L.Campi(a)lse.ac.uk To: vargiolu(a)math.unipd.it Subject: risk and stochastics conference 2014, LSE Dear All On behalf of the organising committee, I invite you to the LSE Risk and Stochastics Conference 2014. The conference will take place on Thursday 24 and Friday 25 April 2014 in lecture theatre EAS.E171 in the East Building. This year?s speakers are: Beatrice Acciaio (LSE) Mathias Beiglb?ck (University of Vienna) Bruno Bouchard (University Paris Dauphine) Jaksa Cvitanic (Caltech) Chrsistoph Czichowsky (LSE) Stefano De Marco (?cole Polytechnique) Vladimir Kaishev (Cass Business School) Goran Peskir (University of Manchester) Philip Protter (Columbia University) Halil Mete Soner (ETH Z?rich) Conference website homepage: http://www.lse.ac.uk/statistics/events/SpecialEventsandConferences/Risk-and… Conference website programme and abstracts: http://www.lse.ac.uk/statistics/events/SpecialEventsandConferences/Risk-and… If you would like to attend, please register at: http://eshop.lse.ac.uk/browse/extra_info.asp?compid=1&modid=2&deptid=221&ca… The event is free for everyone, but registration is essential. Registration via LSE eShop is preferred, but I will accept bookings from LSE students by email if it is more convenient. With kindest regards Luciano Campi Associate Professor Department of Statistics, LSE Please access the attached hyperlink for an important electronic communications disclaimer: http://lse.ac.uk/emailDisclaimer

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Fwd: Fwd: A new professorship on Insurance Mathematics at the University of Ulm (fwd)
by Tiziano Vargiolu 03 Feb '14

03 Feb '14

-------- Messaggio originale -------- Oggetto: A new professorship on Insurance Mathematics at the University of U lm Da: An Chen <an.chen(a)uni-ulm.de> A: An Chen <an.chen(a)uni-ulm.de> CC: Dear colleague, first of all, a late happy new year! I wish all of you a very successful and joyful 2014! Our faculty will post a new permanent professorship (W3) on "Insurance Mathematics". Enclosed please find the detailed descriptions about the position. If you know some one who might be interested in such a positon, please spread the news for me. Many thanks! Best regards, An -- Prof. Dr. An Chen Institute of Insurance Science Faculty of Mathematics and Economics University of Ulm Helmholtzstrasse 20 89069 Ulm Germany Tel: 0049-731-5031183 Fax: 0049-731-5031188 Website: http://www.uni-ulm.de/mawi/ivw/team/

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Avviso di seminario :: Macci@DSS (Scienze Statistiche, Sapienza)
by Pierpaolo Brutti 03 Feb '14

03 Feb '14

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- A v v i s o d i S e m i n a r i o ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Venerdì 7 Febbraio, ore 11am ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stanza 34 Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Sapienza Università di Roma CLAUDIO MACCI (Dip. di Matematica, Università di Roma Tor Vergata) terrà un seminario dal titolo ASYMPTOTIC RESULTS FOR EMPIRICAL MEANS OF INDEPENDENT GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTED RANDOM VARIABLES tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maggiori informazioni sui seminari presso il DSS sono consultabili a quest'indirizzo: http://goo.gl/Y6OQYm Saluti Pierpaolo Brutti - Fulvio De Santis --- Summary We consider independent geometric distributed random variables which satisfy suitable hypotheses. We study large and moderate deviations for their empirical means, and we illustrate applications of the large deviation results for the weak record values of i.i.d. discrete random variables. Joint work with Barbara Pacchiarotti.

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Fwd: Young Women in Probability
by Mario MAURELLI 02 Feb '14

02 Feb '14

Dear all, I apologize for those who are not interested and for cross-posting. I forward this announcement, received by a friend in Bonn, on the workshop "Young women in probability". Below you find more details. Best regards Mario Maurelli PhD student Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa On Sat, 01 Feb 2014 09:08:13 +0100 Carina Geldhauser <geldhauser(a)iam.uni-bonn.de> wrote: >ciao Mario, > >Vorrei pubblicizzare la conferenza "Young Women in Probability", organizzata dai miei colleghi a Bonn. >Ti mando l'annuncio, se lo potessi inoltrare ai tuoi compagni, mi farebbe piacere. > >a presto! >Carina > > > > >******** > > >YOUNG WOMEN IN PROBABILITY 2014 > >Dates : Monday 26th - Wednesday 28th May 2014 > >Place : University of Bonn > >Description : The aim of this workshop is to provide a platform for young female researchers in Probability (PhD students and postdocs), to present their work in an environment which can cultivate collaborations. > >Plenary speakers : >N. Gantert, TU München, Germany >B. de Tilière, Paris 6, France >A. Winter, Universität Duisburg-Essen, Germany > >We invite young female researchers to submit abstracts for contributed talks by March 15. >Financial support is available. > >For further information please visit : >http://www.iam.uni-bonn.de/ywip2014/ > >Organizers : >Loren Coquille, Janna Lierl > >Contact address: ywip2014(a)iam.uni-bonn.de > > >-- >Carina Geldhauser >Institute for Applied Mathematics >Bonn University >Endenicher Allee 60, 53115 Bonn >phone: +49 (0)228 73 3190 >web: http://wt.iam.uni-bonn.de/geldhauser >

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Fwd: IHP TRIMESTER : Disordered systems, random spatial processes and some applications/ Systèmes désordonnés, processus spatiaux aléatoires et certaines applications
by Cristian Giardina 31 Jan '14

31 Jan '14

---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: random15 <random15(a)ihp.fr> Date: Thu, Jan 30, 2014 at 1:46 PM Subject: IHP TRIMESTER : Disordered systems, random spatial processes and some applications/ Systèmes désordonnés, processus spatiaux aléatoires et certaines applications To: Cristian Giardina <cristian.giardina(a)unimore.it> Dear Colleague, It is our pleasure to announce a programme on "Disordered systems, random spatial processes and some applications" organized by the Emile Borel Centre from the Henri Poincare Institute in Paris from January 5th to April 3rd, 2015. Organizers: J-P. Bouchaud, P. Contucci, C. Giardina, P. Nolin, V. Sidoravicius, V. Vargas Information on the programme can be found on: www.ihp.fr/en/CEB/T1-2015 or *random15.dm.unibo.it/ <http://random15.dm.unibo.it/>* * Registration is free and recommended* *to participate to:* - the trimester + workshops on: www.ihp.fr/en/program/13698/colloques/register - workshop(s) only on: www.ihp.fr/en/program/13698/colloques/register/nosignupprogram *BE CAREFUL:* *Deadline to apply for financial support is June 2nd**, 2014.* At the beginning of the programme a one week pre school will take place at the CIRM Marseille "Introductory school at CIRM" and 3 workshops will be organized during the trimester: Statistical physics methods in social and economic systems Spin glasses, random graphs and percolation Interacting particles systems and non-equilibrium dynamics We are looking forward to welcoming you! PS: do not hesitate to forward this email to your colleagues. **************************************************** Cher Collegue, Nous avons le plaisir de vous annoncer l organisation d un programme sur les " Systemes desordonnes, processus spatiaux aleatoires et certaines applications" au Centre Emile Borel de l Institut Henri Poincare a Paris, du 5 janvier au 3 avril 2015. Les organisateurs: J-P. Bouchaud, P. Contucci, C. Giardina, P. Nolin, V. Sidoravicius, V. Vargas Vous pouvez consulter le programme a l adresse suivante: www.ihp.fr/fr/CEB/T1-2015 ou directement a cette adresse: *random15.dm.unibo.it/ <http://random15.dm.unibo.it/>* *L inscription au programme est gratuite et recommandee **sur l adresse suivante:* - pour le trimestre + conferences: www.ihp.fr/fr/program/13698/colloques/register - ou uniquement pour le/les conferences: www.ihp.fr/fr/program/13698/colloques/register/nosignupprogram *Attention:* *Date limite pour les supports financiers: 2 juin 2014* Le trimestre debutera par une pre ecole d une semaine au CIRM de Marseille. Pendant ce trimestre, 3 conferences seront organisees: Statistical physics methods in social and economic systems Spin glasses, random graphs and percolation Interacting particles systems and non-equilibrium dynamics C est avec plaisir que nous vous accueillerons a Paris. PS: merci par avance de bien vouloir transmettre ce courriel a vos collegues. -- Claire Berenger Organisation Assistant random15(a)ihp.fr CNRS UPMC - Institut Henri Poincare Centre Emile Borel 11, rue Pierre et Marie Curie - 75005 Paris Bureau 206 Tel: 01 44 27 67 64 Fax: 01 44 07 09 37www.ihp.fr Decouvrez la chaine de l'institut Henri Poincare<http://www.youtube.com/user/PoincareInstitute> <http://www.youtube.com/user/PoincareInstitute>.

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Avviso di Seminario -- Dott. Robert Knobloch
by Federico Polito 31 Jan '14

31 Jan '14

****************************************************** SEMINARI DI PROBABILITA' E STATISTICA DIPARTIMENTO DI MATEMATICA G. PEANO UNIVERSITA' DEGLI STUDI DI TORINO ****************************************************** Lunedì 10 Febbraio alle ore 15 in Aula S presso il Dipartimento di Matematica "G. Peano" dell'Università degli Studi di Torino, Via Carlo Alberto 10, il Dott. ROBERT KNOBLOCH (Department of Mathematics -- Saarland University) terrà un seminario dal titolo "An Itō type formula and related properties for convoluted Lévy processes" Abstract: In this talk we derive moment and path properties as well as an Itō type formula for a large class of convoluted Lévy processes M(t) that in particular contains fractional Lévy processes. To this end we make use of the S-transform, which is defined as the expectation under a suitable change of measure and results in Hitsuda-Skorokhod integrals appearing in our main results. For the general version of our Itō type formula we assume that the underlying Lévy process has a nontrivial Gaussian component and use this assumption to prove that the characteristic function of M(t), under the aforementioned changed measure, has nice integrability properties. This enables us to weaken the conditions in the Itō type formula compared to related results in the literature. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Federico Polito -- Department of Mathematics University of Torino Via Carlo Alberto, 10 10123, Torino, Italy

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Fwd: Workshop "Teorie Matematiche della Crisi"
by marina pireddu 30 Jan '14

30 Jan '14

Cari Colleghi, vi segnaliamo il workshop "Teorie Matematiche della Crisi" che si terrà in Bicocca i prossimi 6 e 7 Febbraio. Trovate il programma in allegato. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Un caro saluto, Marina Pireddu ed Ahmad Naimzada

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PhD position with deadline tomorrow
by Camilla Pisani 30 Jan '14

30 Jan '14

PhD position in Lund with deadline tomorrow: http://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/o.o.i.s?id=24914&Dnr=575675&Type=E _____________________ Camilla Pisani HPCFinance project-Phd student Aarhus University Business and Social Sciences Fuglesangs Allé 4 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark T: +45 87166015 M: cpisani(a)econ.au.dk W: http://au.dk/en/ cpisani(a)econ.au.dk [bslogo_mail_equis_stor_uk] Business and Social Sciences is a broad business school constituting one of four new main academic areas at Aarhus University. Business and Social Sciences is the largest university unit within business and social sciences in Denmark, encompassing a wide range of academic disciplines, outstanding research environments and strong degree programmes.

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course at GSSI L'Aquila
by davide gabrielli 29 Jan '14

29 Jan '14

The course of Maria Eulalia Vares: TOPICS IN SPECIAL INTERACTING PARTICLE SYSTEMS will start Tuesday February 4 at 16 pm and will continue up to February 27 with the following timetable: Tuesday: 16-18 Wednesday: 9-11 Thursday: 9-11 At Gran Sasso Science Institute, L'Aquila

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Seminario Probabilità a Roma Tre il 04-02-2014
by pietro caputo 29 Jan '14

29 Jan '14

Seminario di Probabilità a Roma Tre Alexandre Stauffer (University of Bath) Titolo: Mixing time of random walks on dynamical percolation Martedi' 04 Febbraio 2014 ORE 14:30 Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica Universita' degli Studi Roma Tre AULA 211 Largo San L. Murialdo,1 Abstract We study the behavior of random walk on dynamical percolation. In this model, the edges of a graph G are either open or closed and refresh their status at rate mu while at the same time a random walker moves on G at rate 1 but only along edges which are open. On the d-dimensional torus with side length n, we prove that in the subcritical regime, the mixing times is of order n^2/mu. We also obtain results concerning mean squared displacement and hitting times.This is a joint work with Yuval Peres and Jeff Steif.

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Re: [Random] JoMaC - Call-for-Paper for Special Issue (fwd)
by Tiziano Vargiolu 28 Jan '14

28 Jan '14

---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Mon, 27 Jan 2014 15:39:37 +0100 From: paolo pellizzari <paolop(a)unive.it> To: Tiziano Vargiolu <vargiolu(a)math.unipd.it> Subject: AW: JoMaC - Call-for-Paper for Special Issue caro Tiziano, please circulate the following call for paper http://www.springer.com/business+%26+management/accounting/journal/187: for a special issue "Simulation in Management Accounting and Management Control" of JoMaC. Details and deadlines in the attached file. grazie e saluti, paolo pellizzari -- Dept. of Economics Ca' Foscari University of Venice - ITALY email: paolop(a)unive.it http://virgo.unive.it/paolop @paolopellizzari Gli uomini son bestie rare, son capitomboli di allegria, sono carretti da trascinare, sono gomitoli di fantasia. (Scraps Orchestra, "Rosso di sera")

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Correzione data - Seminario I. Crimaldi
by alessandra bianchi 27 Jan '14

27 Jan '14

Giovedì 6 febbraio, alle ore 15:00, presso l'aula Seminario VII del Dipartimento di Matematica di Padova la Prof.ssa Irene Crimaldi (IMT Lucca) terra' il seguente seminario TITLE: Asymptotic Results for some Preferential Attachment Models with Random Weights ABSTRACT: Various asymptotic results will be shown for the "randomly reinforced" versions of three popular models: Polya urn, Poisson-Dirichlet sequence and Indian buffet process. The main central limit theorem will be stated for an arbitrary sequence of real random variables. Indeed, although this result has been thought for urn problems, it deals with the general problem of the rate of convergence of predictive distributions and empirical distributions for dependent data. The main references are: - P. Berti - I. Crimaldi - L. Pratelli - P. Rigo, "A central limit theorem and its applications to multicolor randomly reinforced urns", J. Appl. Probab., 48(2), 527-546 - P. Berti - I. Crimaldi - L. Pratelli - P. Rigo, "Central limit theorems for multicolor urns with dominated colors", Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 120(8), 1473-1491 - F. Bassetti - I. Crimaldi - F. Leisen, "Conditionally identically distributed species sampling sequences", Adv. Appl. Probab., 42(2), 433-459 - P. Berti - I. Crimaldi - L. Pratelli - P. Rigo, "Central limit theorems for an Indian buffet model with random weights", forthcoming in Annals of Applied Probability -- Alessandra Bianchi Dip. di Matematica Pura e Applicata Università di Padova Via Trieste, 63 - 35121 Padova, Italy phone: +39 049 827 14 06 fax: +39 049 827 14 28 e-mail: bianchi(a)math.unipd.it http://www.math.unipd.it/~bianchi/

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Seminario di Probabilità - Università di Padova
by alessandra bianchi 27 Jan '14

27 Jan '14

Ho il piacere di invitarvi al seguente seminario, che si terrà mercoledì 5 febbraio, alle ore 15:00, nell'aula 1BC45 della Torre Archimede presso il Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Università degli Studi di Padova. SPEAKER: Prof.ssa Irene Crimaldi AFFILIATION: IMT- Institute for advanced studies -Lucca TITLE: Asymptotic Results for some Preferential Attachment Models with Random Weights ABSTRACT: Various asymptotic results will be shown for the "randomly reinforced" versions of three popular models: Polya urn, Poisson-Dirichlet sequence and Indian buffet process. The main central limit theorem will be stated for an arbitrary sequence of real random variables. Indeed, although this result has been thought for urn problems, it deals with the general problem of the rate of convergence of predictive distributions and empirical distributions for dependent data. The main references are: - P. Berti - I. Crimaldi - L. Pratelli - P. Rigo, "A central limit theorem and its applications to multicolor randomly reinforced urns", J. Appl. Probab., 48(2), 527-546 - P. Berti - I. Crimaldi - L. Pratelli - P. Rigo, "Central limit theorems for multicolor urns with dominated colors", Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 120(8), 1473-1491 - F. Bassetti - I. Crimaldi - F. Leisen, "Conditionally identically distributed species sampling sequences", Adv. Appl. Probab., 42(2), 433-459 - P. Berti - I. Crimaldi - L. Pratelli - P. Rigo, "Central limit theorems for an Indian buffet model with random weights", forthcoming in Annals of Applied Probability -- Alessandra Bianchi Dip. di Matematica Pura e Applicata Università di Padova Via Trieste, 63 - 35121 Padova, Italy phone: +39 049 827 14 06 fax: +39 049 827 14 28 e-mail: bianchi(a)math.unipd.it http://www.math.unipd.it/~bianchi/

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Seminario di Fabio Gobbi a Bologna
by giacomo.scandolo＠univr.it 27 Jan '14

27 Jan '14

Il giorno Giovedì 30 Gennaio 2014, alle ore 14:30 presso la sede di Prometeia (sala grande, primo piano) via G.Marconi 43, Bologna si terrà il Seminario del Dott. Fabio Gobbi Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Università di Bologna Titolo: C-CONVOLUTION AND ITS APPLICATION TO FINANCE Abstract In ﬁnancial applications is interesting to determine the distribution function of the sum of two random variables X and Y in the case where they are dependent. We address the problem using the convolution operator which recovers the distribution of X+Y when a copula function C describes the dependence structure and the marginal distributions of the two r.vs. are given. Nevertheless, almost all the ﬁnancial data are generated by stochastic processes. Our C-convolution approach allows to build dependent increments processes since setting X = X(t-1) − and Y = DX, their sum is X_t . In this framework we model the dependence structure between the level of the process and its next increment. From an empirical point of view, ﬁnancial data are time series and the econometric analysis is provided by the concept of conditional copula introduced by Patton (2006) which allows us to deﬁne the conditional 𝐶-convolution as a data generating process. We estimate such a model by a three-stage maximum likelihood method and we provide some asymptotic results of this estimator. An immediate ﬁnancial application of such a method is given by a copula-based model to recover the distribution of actively managed funds. The analysis is based on a general representation of the Henriksson Merton (1981) model, in which the forecasting ability of the asset manager is modeled with a copula function (linking the forecasts of the asset manager and actual market movements). This is a convolution-based copula yielding at the same time the marginal distribution of the return on the managed fund and the dependence structure between the managed fund and the market. The model is very well suited to estimate and simulate the conditional distribution of managed funds.

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Avviso di seminario :: Ventura@DSS (Scienze Statistiche, Sapienza)
by Pierpaolo Brutti 27 Jan '14

27 Jan '14

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- A v v i s o d i S e m i n a r i o ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Venerdì 31 Gennaio, ore 11am ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stanza 34 Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Sapienza Università di Roma LAURA VENTURA (Dip. di Scienze Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Padova) terrà un seminario dal titolo PSEUDO-LIKELIHOODS FOR BAYESIAN INFERENCE tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maggiori informazioni sui seminari presso il DSS sono consultabili a quest'indirizzo: http://goo.gl/Y6OQYm Saluti Pierpaolo Brutti - Fulvio De Santis --- Summary In the presence of models with complicated dependence structures, of multidimensional nuisance parameters, or of model miss-specifications, both frequentist and Bayesian inference may encounter some theoretical and computational difficulties, since the ordinary likelihood may be too difficult or even impractical to compute. In order to take into proper account such difficulties, it is possible to consider surrogates of the original likelihood, which produce the wide class of the so-called pseudo-likelihoods. In this talk we review the properties and applications of the so-called pseudo-posterior distributions, i.e. posterior distributions derived from the combination of a pseudo-likelihood function with suitable prior information. Some examples are illustrated.

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Fwd: [stoch-ned-l] Workshop Population Dynamics and Statistical Physics in Synergy
by Cristian Giardina 25 Jan '14

25 Jan '14

---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Koorn, P.M. <Koorn(a)eurandom.tue.nl> Date: Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:26 PM Subject: [stoch-ned-l] Workshop Population Dynamics and Statistical Physics in Synergy To: "stoch-ned-l(a)science.uu.nl" <stoch-ned-l(a)science.uu.nl> We would like to announce the upcoming workshop on Population Dynamics and Statistical Physics in Synergy To be held at Eurandom, Eindhoven, the Netherlands Date: August 25-29, 2014 More information on http://www.eurandom.nl/events/workshops/2014/Population_Dynamics/Population… On behalf of the organizers, Patty Koorn Eurandom P.O.Box 513 (MF 4.081) 5600 MB EINDHOVEN The Netherlands tel. +31 40 247 81 00 e-mail koorn(a)eurandom.tue.nl www.eurandom.tue.nl (mon+wed 8.30-16.30; thu+fri 8.30-15.00) _______________________________________________ stoch-ned-l mailing list SMS-VvS+OR/ Section Mathematical Statistics of The Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research. stoch-ned-l(a)science.uu.nl http://mailman.science.uu.nl/mailman/listinfo/stoch-ned-l

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mini workshop on risk measures in Bicocca
by Fabio Bellini 25 Jan '14

25 Jan '14

Il giorno martedì 28 gennaio dalle ore 14.30 alle ore 17.30, presso la aula seminari del Dipartimento di Statistica e Metodi Quantitativi della Università di Milano Bicocca, al quarto piano dell'edificio U7, si terrà un mini-workshop su "New trends in risk measures". Programma dettagliato: 14.30 - 15.30 Johanna Ziegel, Università di Berna "Coherence and elicitability" http://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.1690.pdf 15.30 - 16.30 Valeria Bignozzi, ETH Zurich "How superadditive can a risk measure be?" http://www.math.uwaterloo.ca/~wang/papers/2014WBT.pdf 16.30 - 17.30 Elisa Mastrogiacomo, DISMEQ "Portfolio optimization with quasiconvex risk measures" http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2282472 Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Saluti Prof. Fabio Bellini Department of Statistics and Quantitative Methods University of Milano-Bicocca Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi 8, 20126 Milano 0039-2-64483119 http://www.economia.unimib.it/bellini

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Re: [Random] Announcement for a spring school: CREMMA (fwd)
by Tiziano Vargiolu 22 Jan '14

22 Jan '14

Apologies for cross-postings. Tiziano -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tiziano Vargiolu Dipartimento di Matematica Phone: +39 049 8271383 Universita' di Padova Fax: +39 049 8271428 Via Trieste, 63 E-mail: vargiolu(a)math.unipd.it I-35121 Padova (Italy) WWW: http://www.math.unipd.it/~vargiolu -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Wed, 22 Jan 2014 11:48:26 +0000 (GMT) From: anis lasmar <anis_lasmar(a)yahoo.fr> To: Tiziano Vargiolu <vargiolu(a)math.unipd.it> Subject: Re: Announcement for a spring school: CREMMA Dear Sir The University of Maine, The faculty of Science of Tunis and Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling and Numeric in Engineering Sciences "LAMSIN" organize the fourth spring school of the Euro-Mediterranean Research Center for Mathematics and its Applications. The lectures are devoted to Recent Advances in Math Financial and Insurance. The school will take place in the National Engineering School of Tunis ( ENIT), from March the 17th to the 28th. For registration and more information please visit the following link: http://www.lamsin.tn/CREMMA/Fourth-School.html Agenda March 17th-21st, 2014 - NizarTOUZI (EcolePolytechniquede Paris, France) Viscosity solutions for path dependent PDEs and application to Finance. - Xiaolu TAN (University of Paris-Dauphine, France ) The optimal transport and application to Finance. March 22, 2014: day of lectures. March 24th-28th, 2014 - Nicole EL KAROUI (University of Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France): Applications to the longevity and population dynamics. - Monique JEANBLANC (Universit?d'Evry Val d'Essonne ): Applications to problems of default and credit. - Alexandre BOUMEZOUEDD (University of Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris): The Poisson process, its simulation, random measures and point processes. Thank you for disseminating the information. Best regards, Mohamed Anis BEN LASMAR Enseignant/Chercheur Laboratoire de Mod?lisation Math?matique et Num?rique pour les Sciences de l'Ing?nieur Ecole Nationale d'Ing?nieurs de Tunis Universit? de Tunis El Manar BP 37, 1002 Tunis Le Belv?d?re, Tunisie E-mail: anis_lasmar(a)yahoo.fr mohamedanis.benlasmar(a)lamsin.rnu.tn

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Avviso di mini-corso :: Iacus@DSS (Scienze Statistiche, Sapienza)
by Pierpaolo Brutti 20 Jan '14

20 Jan '14

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- A v v i s o d i M i n i - C o r s o ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lunedì, 27 Gennaio, ore 14:00 - 18:00 Martedì, 28 Gennaio, ore 9:00 - 13:00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Aula VII (piano terra) Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Sapienza Università di Roma STEFANO IACUS (Dep. of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan & R Core Team) terrà un mini-corso rivolto principalmente (ma non solo) agli studenti di dottorato dal titolo SIMULATION AND INFERENCE FOR STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS IN R WITH APPLICATIONS TO FINANCE Il corso è gratuito ma, dato il numero limitato di posti disponibili in aula, tutti gli interessati sono invitati a **prenotarsi** compilando il seguente form on line: http://goo.gl/RrCdVm Entro Giovedì 23/1 verrà inviata conferma dell'effettiva disponibilità del posto richiesto all’indirizzo email fornito. Ovviamente “first come, first served”, con possibile piccolo bias in favore di studenti di dottorato. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maggiori informazioni sui seminari e mini-corsi presso il DSS sono consultabili a quest'indirizzo: http://goo.gl/Y6OQYm Saluti Alessandro De Gregorio, Pierpaolo Brutti, Fulvio De Santis --- Syllabus del corso The course plan to cover the following topics: > Simulation of solutions of stochastic differential equations. > Quasi–maximum likelihood estimation. > Model selection. > Analysis of financial time series. > Clustering of financial time series. > Change point analysis for the volatility in stochastic differential equations. Students are required to have basic knowledge of the R statistical package and come with a pre–installed version of the software and of the Yuima package on their machines. Preliminary notions on SDEs are welcome. Lectures will be based on the following books: > Iacus, S.M. (2011). Option Pricing and Estimation of Financial Models with R. John Wiley & Sons. > Iacus, S.M. (2008). Simulation and Inference for Stochastic Differential Equations: with R examples. Springer. but extract of the parts relevant to the course, will be distributed during the lectures along with exercise sheets.

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Incontro su SDE con memoria e argomenti correlati
by Giovanni Zanco 19 Jan '14

19 Jan '14

Segnalo che martedì 21 e mercoledì 22 gennaio si terrà presso il dipartimento di Matematica dell'Università di Pisa (aula seminari) un incontro informale su equazioni differenziali stocastiche con memoria e argomenti correlati, durante il quale verranno presentati risultati recenti su SDE path-dependent, SDE con ritardo e calcolo stocastico via regolarizzazione in spazi di Banach. Sono previsti i seguenti seminari: *Martedì 21 gennaio:* *15.00* - B. Goldys - *Convergence of ARMA and GARCH processes to stochastic differential equations with memory;* *15.35* - M. Rosestolato - TBA; *16.10* - S. Federico - *Directional regularity and verification theorems for optimal control problems with delay;* *17.15* - F. Masiero - *Some results on HJB equations related to problems with delay;* *17.50* - G. Zanco - *An infinite dimensional approach to path-dependent Kolmogorov's equations.* *Mercoledì 22 gennaio:* *09.30* - C. Di Girolami - *Basis Banach space valued calculus via regularization and Fukushima-Dirichlet decomposition for window processes;* *10.05* - F. Russo - *On Kolmogorov type equations associated with frames of diffusion processes in relation with calculus via regularization;* *11.25* - A. Cosso - *Strong-viscosity solutions to path-dependent PDEs.* -- Giovanni Zanco Dipartimento di Matematica Università di Pisa Largo Bruno Pontecorvo 5, 56127 Pisa Room 302 +39 050 2213 237 zanco(a)mail.dm.unipi.it giovanni.zanco(a)gmail.com

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[Recall] Nicola Bruti-Liberati Prize [2013] (fwd)
by Tiziano Vargiolu 18 Jan '14

18 Jan '14

Apologies for cross-postings. Tiziano -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tiziano Vargiolu Dipartimento di Matematica Phone: +39 049 8271383 Universita' di Padova Fax: +39 049 8271428 Via Trieste, 63 E-mail: vargiolu(a)math.unipd.it I-35121 Padova (Italy) WWW: http://www.math.unipd.it/~vargiolu -------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------- Messaggio originale -------- Oggetto: [Recall] Nicola Bruti-Liberati Prize [2013] Data: Fri, 17 Jan 2014 18:28:42 +0100 Mittente: qfinlab(a)polimi.it A: undisclosed-recipients:; The Bachelier Finance Society and the Department of Mathematics of the Politecnico di Milano, in cooperation with Springer, are proud to announce the 2013 Nicola Bruti Liberati Prize (III edition) which is to be awarded annually for a doctoral thesis in all subjects of Mathematical Finance, such as, but not limited to: Derivative Pricing, Computational Finance, Econometrics and Statistical Methods applied to Finance, Risk Analysis, Portfolio Optimization, Probability Methods in Finance, and Numerical Methods in Finance. Nicola obtained an undergraduate degree from Bocconi University (2001) in Mathematical Finance. He died in 2007 in a traffic accident in Sydney, while he was completing his PhD thesis at the University of Technology. At that time, he was also cooperating with the Quantitative Finance group of the Department of Mathematics of the Politecnico di Milano. In order to commemorate Nicola, his family and the Department of Mathematics of the Politecnico di Milano offer an annual prize of E3.000 for the best doctoral thesis to be selected by a Committee appointed by the Bachelier Finance Society. Theses defended in 2011, 2012 or 2013 must be submitted no later than January 31st, 2014. The call for scholarship can be downloaded from the QFinLab web-site (www1.mate.polimi.it/qfinlab) ---------------------------------------------------------------- This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.

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Seminario di Probabilità - Università di Padova
by alessandra bianchi 17 Jan '14

17 Jan '14

Ho il piacere di invitarvi al seguente seminario che si terrà venerdì 31 gennaio, alle ore 14:30, nell'aula 2AB45 della Torre Archimede presso il Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Università degli Studi di Padova. Speaker: Dott. Tal Orenshtein Affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Munich Title: Excitements in one dimension Abstract: Excited random walk (also called Cookie walk) is a self interacting discrete time stochastic process on graphs so that the transition probability is given not only by the location, but also by the number of past visits to that location. We shall discuss some old and new results on the one-dimensional lattice case, which has a special structure. Joint with Gideon Amir and Noam Berger. -- Alessandra Bianchi Dip. di Matematica Pura e Applicata Università di Padova Via Trieste, 63 - 35121 Padova, Italy phone: +39 049 827 14 06 fax: +39 049 827 14 28 e-mail: bianchi(a)math.unipd.it http://www.math.unipd.it/~bianchi/

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seminario del Prof. Ivan Gentil a Pavia - messaggio corretto
by Carbone Raffaella 17 Jan '14

17 Jan '14

Cari colleghi, il giorno martedì 21 gennaio 2014, alle ore 15, presso la sala conferenze dell'IMATI-CNR di Pavia, il Prof. Ivan Gentil (University of Lyon 1) terrà il seminario dal titolo *Contraction in Wasserstein distance for Markov diffusion semigroups * nell'ambito del Seminario di Matematica Applicata (IMATI-CNR e Dipartimento di Matematica, Pavia). Abstract : Under curvature condition the Wasserstein distance has some contraction properties between two solutions of the heat equation (on a manifold for instance). We investigate how the dimension appears in the contraction inequality. (Mi scuso per il doppio messaggio) -- Raffaella Carbone, PhD Ricercatore di Probabilità e Statistica Matematica Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Università degli Studi di Pavia

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seminario del Prof. Ivan Gentil a Pavia
by Carbone Raffaella 17 Jan '14

17 Jan '14

Cari colleghi, presso la sala conferenze dell'IMATI-CNR di Pavia, il Prof. Ivan Gentil (University of Lyon 1) terrà la conferenza dal titolo *Contraction in Wasserstein distance for Markov diffusion semigroups * nell'ambito del Seminario di Matematica Applicata (IMATI-CNR e Dipartimento di Matematica, Pavia). Abstract : Under curvature condition the Wasserstein distance has some contraction properties between two solutions of the heat equation (on a manifold for instance). We investigate how the dimension appears in the contraction inequality. -- Raffaella Carbone, PhD Ricercatore di Probabilità e Statistica Matematica Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Università degli Studi di Pavia

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Energy Finance 2014 conference first announcement
by Tiziano Vargiolu 14 Jan '14

14 Jan '14

---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Fri, 3 Jan 2014 15:59:05 -0700 From: EF14 <info(a)energyfinance2014.org> Subject: Energy Finance 2014 conference first announcement Conference first announcement, apologies for cross-posting. ____________________________________________________________________________ Energy Finance 2014 (EF14) ____________________________________________________________________________ The next Energy Finance conference will be held on September 24 - 26, 2014, in Erice, Italy. The conference aim is to bring together academicians, practitioners and students interested in the last developments of quantitative analysis, risk management and mathematical modelling of energy markets and related subjects. You can find more information about EF14 in the conference website energyfinance2014.org. Sincerely, the EF14 Organizing Committee. View of the Tyrrhenian coast from the Erice Conference Center [index.php?option=com_acymailing&ctrl=stats&mailid=12&subid=898&no_html=1]

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Avviso di seminario :: Farcomeni@DSS (Scienze Statistiche, Sapienza)
by Pierpaolo Brutti 13 Jan '14

13 Jan '14

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- A v v i s o d i S e m i n a r i o ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Venerdì 17 Gennaio, ore 11am ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stanza 34 Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Sapienza Università di Roma ALESSIO FARCOMENI (Dip. Sanità Pubblica e Malattie Infettive, Sapienza Università di Roma) terrà un seminario dal titolo GENERALIZED LINEAR MIXED MODELS BASED ON LATENT MARKOV HETEROGENEITY STRUCTURES tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maggiori informazioni sui seminari presso il DSS sono consultabili a quest'indirizzo: http://goo.gl/Y6OQYm Saluti Pierpaolo Brutti - Fulvio De Santis --- Summary Latent Markov models (LM) can be seen as a flexible device for taking into account time-varying subject-specific unobserved heterogeneity. In the basic LM, a random intercept is flexibly allowed to evolve over time. The available formulations of mixed LM often assume that any additional random effect is time-constant, with few specific exceptions. In this work we formulate a mixed latent Markov model in which all random effects may freely evolve over time. The size of the parameter space is controlled with the possibilities of assuming block independence of random effects, and/or that groups of random effects may share some or all aspects of their distribution. Parameter estimation is carried out with a simple expectation maximization strategy, analogous to that used for the basic latent Markov model, after an adaptation of the usual forward backward recursions and a parsimonious representation of the expected complete likelihood. Standard errors are derived using Oakes' identity. Dependence among random effects is summarized using Watanabe's total correlation and described with log-odds ratios and higher-order log-linear interactions. We illustrate with an original application to the relationship between health literacy and depression in a panel of adolescents. In this example subjects are clustered in schools, which leads to high-dimensional multivariate time-varying random effects.

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