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Seminario Cretarola
by Sabrina Mulinacci 05 Mar '15

05 Mar '15

Cari colleghi, Giovedì 12 marzo 2015 ore 12 in aula IV Via Belle Arti 41, Bologna Alessandra Cretarola dell'Università di Perugia terrà un seminario dal titolo: “Risk-minimizing hedging strategies for unit-linked life insurance contracts under partial information” Abstract: We study the problem of hedging unit-linked life insurance contracts in incomplete markets when there are restrictions on the available information by using the local risk-minimization approach. This type of insurance contract is closely related to the financial market since benefits depend on the development of a certain stock price. Then, it makes sense to consider the combined model given by the underlying semimartingale model of financial market and the insurance portfolio. Firstly, we refer to the case of complete information on the insurance portfolio and a limitative knowledge on the financial market. More precisely, we assume that, at any time, the insurance company has access to the information about the number of policy-holders who are still alive but it has a partial information about the stock prices. We characterize the risk-minimizing hedging strategy for pure endowment contracts when the underlying price process is expressed in units of the numéraire portfolio and the mortality hazard rate is a deterministic function, and then we compute it explicitly in a Markovian jump-diffusion driven market model. Next, we consider the case where there are restrictions on the information concerning the insurance portfolio. In particular we assume that, at any time, the insurance company has a complete knowledge of the financial market and may observe the number of deaths from a specific portfolio of insured individuals but not the mortality hazard rate, which may depend on unobservable exogenous stochastic factors. We characterize the locally risk-minimizing hedging strategy for pure endowment and term insurance contracts in terms of the projection of the survival process on the information flow. Finally, we see that in a Markovian framework, this leads to a filtering problem with point process observations. The talk is based on joint works with Claudia Ceci and Katia Colaneri. Un caro saluto a tutti Sabrina Mulinacci

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Politecnico di Milano - Seminario J. J. Egozcue and V. Pawlowsky-Glahn
by Laura M. Sangalli 04 Mar '15

04 Mar '15

Si avvisa che in data 31-03-2015, alle ore 11:00 precise, presso l'Aula Seminari "F. Saleri" VI piano - Dipartimento di Matematica, Politecnico di Milano, nell'ambito delle iniziative MOX, si svolgerà il seguente seminario: Relatori: J. J. Egozcue, Dept. Matematica Aplicada III, U. Politecnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain e V. Pawlowsky-Glahn, Dept. Informatica, Matematica Aplicada i Estadistica, U. de Girona, Spain Titolo: Understanding Bayes spaces Abstract: Bayes spaces contain equivalence classes of sigma-additive measures. Two measures are equivalent when they are proportional. These measures are represented by densities and vector space operations are defined. Probability measures and density functions are included in these spaces. When the densities are log-square-integrable, they are in a Hilbert space called B^2. Bayes spaces and associated Hilbert spaces B^2 have been developed in a theoretical way, but there is still a long way to understand the implications of the theory, as well as to develop potential applications. The talk is aimed at reviewing the theory and giving some examples of distributions for which the B^2 distance can be easily obtained. These examples show the variety of distribution supports that can be dealt with the theory. An application to grain size distribution is presented. The goal is to decide whether different populations have different mean distribution. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Cordiali saluti, Laura Sangalli -- Laura Maria Sangalli MOX - Dipartimento di Matematica Politecnico di Milano Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 20133 Milano - Italy tel: +39 02 2399 4554 fax: +39 02 2399 4568 email: laura.sangalli(a)polimi.it url: http://mox.polimi.it/~sangalli

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Last call for papers: 2015 AMMCS-CAIMS (Waterloo, ON, Canada, June 7-12, 2015)
by Enrico Scalas 04 Mar '15

04 Mar '15

Car* collegh*, c'e' ancora qualche giorno (scadenza estesa al 13 marzo 2015) per inviare un abstract all'AMMCS-CAIMS: http://www.ammcs-caims2015.wlu.ca/submit-abstracts/ e due sessioni che organizzo sono di interesse per chi si occupa di probabilita': http://www.ammcs-caims2015.wlu.ca/special-sessions/fcp/ (Fractional Calculus and Probability) http://www.ammcs-caims2015.wlu.ca/special-sessions/wdsee/ (Wealth Distribution and Statistical Equilibrium in Economics) Cordiali saluti, Enrico Scalas

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Workshop on "Elicitability, Propriety and Related Topics", University of Bern, May 28 - 29, 2015
by Fabio Bellini 04 Mar '15

04 Mar '15

Cari colleghi, inoltro da parte di Johanna Ziegel e del suo gruppo l'annuncio di questo interessante workshop: >Workshop for young scientists on "Elicitability, Propriety and >Related Topics" at the University of Bern, May 28 - 29, 2015. > >One of the classical questions in statistical analysis is to make >probabilistic or point forecasts about some unknown quantity. The >notions of elicitability of a statistical functional, consistency of >a scoring function or propriety of a scoring rule are of central >importance in statistical decision theory and have gained more and >more attention in the recent statistical literature. > >We invite young scientists - especially PhD and postdoctoral >students - from the heart of Europe to present their results in the >field of "Elicitability, Propriety and Related Topics". The >scientific and social program of the workshop as well as Bern as a >World Heritage Site provide an inspiring atmosphere to get in touch >with motivated colleagues, to discuss open problems and to find >potential future collaborators. > >Further information available at ><http://www.imsv.unibe.ch/content/talks/workshop_on_elicitability_propriety_…>http://www.imsv.unibe.ch/content/talks/workshop_on_elicitability_propriety_… > > >Best regards, >Johanna Ziegel, Christoph Strahl and Tobias Fissler > >_________________________________ >University of Bern >Department of Mathematics and Statistics >Institute of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science > >Tobias Fissler >PhD-Student > >Sidlerstrasse 5 >CH-3012 Bern, Schweiz >Tel.: +41 (0) 31 631 88 06 ><mailto:tobias.fissler@stat.unibe.ch>tobias.fissler(a)stat.unibe.ch >http://www.stat.unibe.ch

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avviso di seminario
by Brunero Liseo 04 Mar '15

04 Mar '15

Mi scuso per eventuali ricezioni multiple Avviso di seminario Relatore: Radu Craiu Department of Statistical Sciences University of Toronto Titolo: Bayesian Inference for Conditional Copula models with Continuous and Binary Responses Dove e Quando: mercoledì 11 marzo ore 11.30 Aula Fanfani (quinto piano, edificio Economia) Viale del Castro Laurenziano 9, Roma Abstract: The conditional copula device allows the use of copula models in the study of dependence between response variables in regression settings. We consider situations in which the dependence structure varies with covariates and we introduce a Bayesian model that allows for joint estimation of the marginal and joint models. The dependence between the copula parameter and the covariates is modeled via polynomial splines. Extensions to multiple covariates are implemented via additive models. We discuss the computation algorithm required for inference and demonstrate the performance of model selection techniques on simulated and real data. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare -- ============================================ Brunero Liseo *Dip. di metodi e modelli per il territorio, l'economia e la finanza * *Sapienza Università di Roma* *Viale Castro Laurenziano, 9 Roma I-00161 *Tel. +39 06 49766973 Fax +39 06 4957606 *http://www.memotef.uniroma1.it/users/liseo-brunero <http://www.memotef.uniroma1.it/users/liseo-brunero>* =============================================

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Interdisciplinary WK on Quantitative Finance (fwd)
by Tiziano Vargiolu 02 Mar '15

02 Mar '15

----- Forwarded message from crmdifusions(a)crm.cat ----- Date: Tue, 24 Feb 2015 11:22:23 +0100 From: B?stia CRM Difusions <crmdifusions(a)crm.cat> Subject: Reminder Interdisciplinary WK on Quantitative Finance we want to remind you the upcoming Interdisciplinary Workshop on Quantitative Finance which will be held at the Centre de Recerca Matem?tica, Bellaterra, Barcelona from June 25 and 26, 2015. In this workshop we aim to bring together academic researchers and professionals from financial institutions interested in quantitative finance, to interact and to discuss. We wish to focus on the underlying mathematical models as well as in advanced numerical solution techniques used for pricing financial contracts and risk measurement. Quantitative finance concerns the application of mathematical methods to solve problems in finance. The tools and techniques to tackle these problems cover a wide spectrum of fields, like stochastic analysis, numerical analysis, partial differential equations, statistics and econometrics. ?Deadline for registration: May 31, 2015 More information in: http://www.crm.cat/en/Activities/Curs_2014-2015/Pages/Quantitative-Finance.… We hope that this information is of your interest and we hope to see you soon in Barcelona, Elisa Al?s (Universitat Pompeu i Fabra) Joan del Castillo (Universitat Aut?noma de Barcelona) Jos? Manuel Corcuera (Universitat de Barcelona) Luis Ortiz-Gracia (Centre de Recerca Matem?tica) Josep Vives (Universitat de Barcelona) (Scientific Coordinators) Administration Centre de Recerca Matem?tica Campus de Bellaterra, Edifici C 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) Spain Tel.: + 34 93 581 10 81 Fax: + 34 93 581 22 02 http://www.crm.cat<http://www.crm.cat/>

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Workshop on Optimal Stopping and Applications
by Cristina Zucca 27 Feb '15

27 Feb '15

Dear Colleagues, I would like to draw your attention to the Workshop on "Optimal Stopping and Applications" Department of Mathematics "G. Peano", University of Torino May 22, 2015 The workshop aims at bringing together experts on Optimal Stopping and related problems, as the Quickest Detection and Optimal Prediction, with people motivated by applications. Participation is free. All people interested to participate are invited to register, sending an e-mail to cristina.zucca(a)unito.it by March 31, 2015. For more information, please visit https://sites.google.com/site/workshopoptimalstopping/ Best regards, Cristina -- Dr. Cristina Zucca Department of Mathematics University of Torino Via Carlo Alberto 10 10123 Torino, Italy tel: +39-011-6702850 fax: +39-011-6702878

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Ciclo Seminari Probabilita` e Statistica - PASCAL - 4 marzo 2015
by Valentina Cammarota 27 Feb '15

27 Feb '15

Ciclo di Seminari - Progetto ERC grant PASCAL (Probabilistic and Statistical Techniques for Cosmological Applications) Mercoledì 4 Marzo - ore 15.00 Aula D'Antoni 1101 Dipartimento di Matematica Università di Roma Tor Vergata Speaker: Claudio Durastanti - Università di Tor Vergata Title: Spherical wavelets: an overview and some applications. Abstract: Our aim is to describe the construction of wavelets over the q-dimensional sphere featuring strong concentration properties in the spatial domain, introduced in literature as needlets by Narcowich, Petrushev, Ward (2006 a,b). We will also discuss some of their statistical applications: the study of quantitative central limit theorems for some linear and nonlinear statistics built from wavelet coefficients evaluated on spherical Poisson processes of arbitrary dimension. This purpose is attained by merging the Stein-Malliavin approach (introduced in the seminal paper by Peccati, Sanz-Solè, Taqqu and Utzet (2011)) and the properties of the needlets. We will also discuss some examples: the thresholding and the study of variance in nonparametric density estimation framework and the so-called Sobolev tests for uniformity. This is a joint work with Solesne Bourguin, Domenico Marinucci and Giovanni Peccati. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Valentina Cammarota ................................................................................ Valentina Cammarota, Postdoc Department of Mathematics Universita` degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata https://sites.google.com/site/valentinacammarota/ ................................................................................ -- Open WebMail Project (http://openwebmail.org)

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Seminari a Roma 1
by Faggionato, Alessandra 26 Feb '15

26 Feb '15

Mercoledì 4 marzo, nell'Aula di Consiglio del Dipartimento di Matematica "G. Castelnuovo" si svolgeranno i seguenti seminari 15:30-16:20 Stella Brassesco (Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas) The winding number of planar Brownian motion 16:20-17:10 Stefano Olla (CEREMADE, Paris-Dauphine) Diffusione e superdiffusione dell’energia in catene di oscillatori. Tutti gli interessati sono benvenuti. -- Prof. Alessandra Faggionato Department of Mathematics University La Sapienza Piazzale A. Moro, 2 00186 Rome - Italy

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ABS15 Summer school
by Raffaele Argiento 26 Feb '15

26 Feb '15

We would like to inform you that it is now possible to register for ABS15, the Applied Bayesian Statistics summer school organised in Italy since 2004. Programme and information on accommodation are now available as well. The theme of the 2015 school is MODERN BAYESIAN METHODS AND COMPUTING FOR THE SOCIAL SCIENCES and the location will be the magnificent Villa del Grumello, Como (Italy), on the Lake Como shore. The dates are June, 8th - 12th, 2015, with deadlines on April, 1st for early registration and April, 27th for hotel booking. The lecturer will be Jeff Gill, Washington University, St. Louis, USA, with the help of Giacomo Zanella (University of Warwick, UK) for the practical sessions. The school web-page is www.mi.imati.cnr.it/conferences/abs15.html The ABS15 Secretariat can be contacted at abs15(a)mi.imati.cnr.it Best regards Guido Consonni and Fabrizio Ruggeri ABS15 Directors Raffaele Argiento ABS15 Executive Director -- Dr Raffaele Argiento CNR IMATI -- Milano Tel. +39 02 23699.529 Web www.mi.imati.cnr.it/raffaele

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