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SEMINARIO DI PROBABILITA' E STATISTICA MATEMATICA
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DIPARTIMENTO DI MATEMATICA
UNIVERSITA' LA SAPIENZA DI ROMA
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piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Roma
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Yosi Rinott (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and LUISS)
Title: On Measuring and Comparing Usefulness of Statistical Models
Aula di Consiglio del Dipartimento di Matematica
Venerdi' 8 maggio, ore 14,30
Abstract: Statistical models in econometrics, biology, and most other
areas, should not be expected to be "correct", and often are not very
accurate, but may still be useful. The choice of a model for the
analysis of data depends on the purpose of the analysis, the nature of
the data, and also on the sample or data size.
Erev, Roth, Slonim and Barron (2007) [Economic Theory, 33, 29–51]
studied models for prediction of future play in game-theoretic
experiments and proposed an approach for quantification of the value
of a model.
Combining ideas from the latter article and the well-known AIC
criterion, we propose another quantification of the chosen model's
relative predictive value, which depends on the data and its size. Our
research was first motivated by data from experimental economics, and
we also study the Hardy-Weinberg model in biology.
Joint work with David Azriel
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Tutti gli interessanti sono invitati a partecipare.
Giovanna Nappo