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Seminar by Dr. Vincenzo Candila.
by Giorgio Rizzini 24 Mar '23

24 Mar '23

Dear all, we are glad to announce the following seminar by Dr. *Vincenzo Candila* (University of Salerno) on Wednesday March 29th 2023 starting from 4:30 p.m. in room 2062 at the Department of Statistics and Quantitative Methods, University of Milano-Bicocca (Milan). *On the tennis winner forecasting methods: from the Weighted Elo rates to the network-based indicators* *Vincenzo **Candila* Department of Economics and Statistics University of Salerno *Abstract:* Statistical methods for predicting the winner in tennis matches have increased in popularity over the last two decades. Currently, several techniques are available, such as the regression-based, point-based, and paired-comparison approaches. Within this latter class, the Elo rating is one of the most popular methods to predict the probability of winning tennis matches. Even with its widely recognized merits in terms of good performance, the Elo method only partially considers each player's current form and recent performances. To overcome this drawback, we have proposed a new version of the Elo rating method, labeled Weighted Elo (WElo), where the standard Elo rates are weighted according to the scoreline of the players’ last match. More recently, we have further enlarged the paired-comparison class of models, introducing the network-based indicators for the first time to allow the ratings of the whole set of players to vary every time there is a new match. This work aims to illustrate the main characteristics of the WElo and network-based rates. In the empirical applications, we show the statistically meaningful benefits of using the proposed approaches with respect to many popular competing specifications. *March 29th, 2023 at 4:30 p.m.* *Department of Statistics and Quantitative Methods* *Room **2062* * - Building U7 (Second floor)* *Bicocca degli Arcimboldi street, 8 – 20126 Milan* For further information, please write to rosanna.grassi(a)unimib.it

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Quantitative Finance at Work, 2023
by Davide Pirino 24 Mar '23

24 Mar '23

Dear Colleagues, We are pleased to announce the fourth edition of the *QFin@Work* on *April 28, 2023*, a workshop on the practical use of quantitative methods in Finance and related fields hosted by the Master of Science in Finance and Banking <https://economia.uniroma2.it/master-science/financeandbanking/> of Tor Vergata University of Rome. The goal is to bring together leading experts, especially finance professionals, to learn from their experiences, listen to new ideas, and discuss future perspectives in the field. The schedule is available at https://qfinatwork.com/2023. Attendance is free and participants are encouraged to register soon! Looking forward to having you with us, Rocco Ciciretti (On behalf of the Scientific and Organizing committee)

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A spring day in Probability and Statistical Physics- 21 Aprile 2023
by Luisa Andreis 23 Mar '23

23 Mar '23

Care colleghe e colleghi, Vi annunciamo che prossimamente si terrà l'undicesima giornata di seminari: A SPRING DAY IN PROBABILITY AND STATISTICAL PHYSICS University of Florence Friday 21 April 2023 Lecturers: Fabio Toninelli (Vienna) and Julia Komjathy (Delft) Location: Sala Tricerri, Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica Ulisse Dini, viale Morgagni 67/a, Firenze, Firenze Ricordiamo che ciascun oratore farà una lezione introduttiva e divulgativa di 45 minuti pensata proprio per i non esperti, seguita da altri 45 minuti di tipo seminario (vedi programma). Maggiori informazioni e aggiornamenti sono reperibili alla pagina web https://sites.google.com/unifi.it/florence-probability-group/home/days-in-p… Note pratiche: a coloro che fossero interessati (per una migliore organizzazione) chiediamo di compilare il seguente Google Form per indicare l'intenzione di partecipare alla giornata e in particolare al pranzo: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdksgtnmxrLTE4h9RLyEfx3lo0aMHpowiI… Vi aspettiamo numerosi! Gianmarco Bet e Luisa Andreis Scientific advisory committee: F. Caravenna, E.N.M. Cirillo, F. Colomo, P. Dai Pra, A. De Masi, C. Giardina`, R. Livi, F. Martinelli, I.G. Minelli, B. Scoppola, E. Scoppola. PROGRAMMA Prof. Fabio Toninelli (Technical University of Vienna) Title: Out-of-equilibrium phenomena and stochastic PDEs Prof. Julia Komjathy (Technical University of Delft) Title: TBA 10:30-11:00 Welcome coffee 11.00-11.45 Introductory lecture: Toninelli 11.45-12.15 Break 12.15-13.00 Seminar: Toninelli 13.00-14.30 Lunch 14.30-15.15 Introductory lecture: Komjathy 15.15-15.45 Break 15.45-16.30 Seminar: Komjathy [cid:6D6AED0A-79CF-4C81-9F23-96145C7CAFD5] Luisa Andreis ------------------------------------------------------- RTD-B Dipartimento di Matematica Politecnico di Milano Personal webpage: https://sites.google.com/view/luisaandreis/home Email: luisa.andreis(a)polimi.it<mailto:luisa.andreis@polimi.it>

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Seminar: Francesco Vaccarino at Tor Vergata
by salvi 23 Mar '23

23 Mar '23

Dear all, On Wednesday, February 15th, at 14h00 in Aula Dal Passo at Roma Tor Vergata, RoMaDS (https://www.mat.uniroma2.it/~rds/about.php) will host Francesco Vaccarino (Politecnico di Torino) with the seminar _ _ _"Hodge-Shapley game: a Laplacian-based Shapley-like associated game for eXplainable AI"_ _ _ Abstract: In cooperative game theory, a set of players or decision-makers should negotiate to decide how to allocate the worth gained by the coalition composed of all the players. A value is a solution concept that suggests the outcome of the negotiation among players. Among the many existing alternative solution concepts, it is prevalent the Shapley value solution concept. Its popularity also derives from the property of being a fair allocation, where a set of desirable properties or axioms describes fairness. The axioms characterize the Shapley value in the sense that it is the unique value satisfying those properties; at the same time, the axioms allow deriving a simple explicit combinatorial formula to compute the Shapley value. In our approach, coalitions are the main subjects of cooperation, instead of single players, and, inspired by the Shapley value, the goal is to derive a fair associated game, i.e. an allocation to coalitions satisfying a set of desirable properties. The methodology is based on using the Hodge decomposition of the simplicial complex associated with the partially ordered set of the subsets of the set of players ordered by inclusion. We will motivate this investigation within the framework of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI). Joint work with Antonio Mastropietro (Eurecom - F) We encourage in-person partecipation. Should you be unable to come, here is the link to the event on Teams: https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3arfsL73KX-fw86y1YnXq2nk5VnZFw… The seminar is part of the Excellence Project Math@TOV. You can find a schedule with the next events at the following link: https://www.mat.uniroma2.it/~rds/events.php .

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Next OWPS on March 29th: Milton Jara and Otávio Menezes
by Alberto Chiarini 22 Mar '23

22 Mar '23

OWPS's next session will be on Wednesday the 29th of March from 15:00 to 17:00 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time). Our next speakers are: Milton Jara (IMPA) and Otávio Menezes (Purdue University) Title, abstract and the zoom link are below the signature and can be found on the website https://www.owprobability.org/one-world-probability-seminar. If you are interested in the project, we kindly ask you to share this announcement within your community. With best wishes, Alberto Chiarini (Padua) and Adrián González Casanova (Berkeley and México) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Talk : Milton Jara (IMPA) and Otávio Menezes (Purdue University) Title : CLT for NESS Abstract : Non-equilibrium stationary states (NESS) are ubiquitous in nature, but not well understood from a mathematical point of view. The main features of NESS is the presence of non-trivial currents, which generate long-range correlations in the system. Modeling physical systems by Markov chains, one can restate questions about NESS as the description of invariant measures for non-reversible Markov chains. This opens the way to describe NESS by probabilistic methods. However, basic questions for non-reversible Markov chains, like for example mixing times or quantitative CLTs are not been answered in great generality. Our first talk will introduce NESS with some examples, and it will introduce general and fairly elementary methodology for Markov chains that we believe is well suited to the study of non-reversible Markov chains. The second talk will describe some recent results about the description of NESS for driven-diffusive systems. Zoom-link: https://unipd.zoom.us/j/82893164291?pwd=RHZIeXU2b3pVOE1OSU5tdFd2Y2RPUT09 Meeting ID: 828 9316 4291 Passcode: 251936 If you are having trouble with zoom, or if the capacity of the zoom room gets exceeded, you can also access to the Youtube live stream at the channel of the seminar: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCiLiEQGTp6bZEhuHDM-WNWQ

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Seminar announcement: M. Tarsia on time-inconsistent recursive stochastic control problems – March 29, 2023 – 13:00-14:00
by Mastrogiacomo Elisa 21 Mar '23

21 Mar '23

Dear Colleagues, On March 29, 2023, 13:00-14:00, Dr. Marco Tarsia (University of Insubria) will give a talk on “Subgame-perfect equilibrium strategies for time-inconsistent recursive stochastic control problems” (joint work with Elisa Mastrogiacomo). The seminar will be held in person and online via the MS Teams platform. Link: https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_OWU0MDRiNjctYWNmYS00… Place: Dipartimento di Economia, Via Monte Generoso 71, room TBA. Below you can find an abstract of Marco’s talk. You are all invited. *** Abstract In this talk, we discuss about time-inconsistent recursive stochastic control problems, i.e., for which Bellman’s principle of optimality does not hold. In practice, a restriction of an optimal control for a specific initial pair on a later time interval might not be optimal for that corresponding initial pair; this happens, for instance, in dynamic utility maximization problems for investment- consumption strategies under non-exponential discounting. For this class of problems classical optimal controls may fail to exist, or to be relevant in practice, and dynamic programming is not easily applicable. Therefore, the notion of optimality is defined through a game-theoretic framework by means of subgame-perfect equilibrium: we interpret our preference changes which, realistically, are inconsistent over time, as players in a game for which we want to find a Nash equilibrium. The approach followed in our work relies on the stochastic (Pontryagin) maximum principle: we adapt the classical spike variation technique to obtain a characterization of equilibrium strategies in terms of a generalized second-order Hamiltonian function defined through pairs of backward stochastic differential equations, even in the multidimensional case. We emphasize that, similarly to the classical case, equilibrium strategies are characterized through both a necessary condition and a sufficient condition involving the generalized Hamiltonian function, whereas, contrary to the classical case, this sufficient condition works even in the absence of extra convexity assumptions. Going further, our analysis is extended to time-inconsistent recursive stochastic control problems under a constraint defined by means of an additional recursive utility, under appropriate boundedness assumptions. That constraint refers to an expected value and so we adapt Ekeland’s variational principle to this trickier situation. Finally, the theoretical results are applied in the financial field to finite horizon investment-consumption policies with non-exponential actualization. Here the existence of non-trivial equilibrium policies is also ascertained. Best regards, Elisa Mastrogiacomo ----------------------------------------- Professore Associato di Metodi matematici dell'economia e delle scienze attuariali e finanziarie DIPARTIMENTO D'ECCELLENZA 2023/2027 Università degli Studi dell'Insubria Dipartimento di Economia Via Monte Generoso, 71 – 21100 Varese tel. +39 0332/395528 web: www.uninsubria.it<http://www.uninsubria.it/> mail: elisa.mastrogiacomo(a)uninsubria.it<mailto:mario.rossi@uninsubria.it> Chiaramente Insubria! [LOGO-ATENEO-FONDO TRASPARENTE]<http://www.uninsubria.it/> [Facebook] <https://www.facebook.com/uninsubria> [Twitter] <https://twitter.com/Uni_Insubria> [Instagram] <https://instagram.com/uninsubria> [YouTube] <https://www.youtube.com/user/LabVAMultimedia>

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Seminario di Marta Leocata, Martedì 21 Marzo, Sapienza Università di Roma
by Silvestri, Vittoria 21 Mar '23

21 Mar '23

Ricordo il seminario di oggi, e segnalo che sarà trasmesso su zoom al seguente link: *Zoom link: * https://uniroma1.zoom.us/j/98462690288?pwd=SnYrNmpTQXQxZEI2UmN3VW1ucVNBdz09 Meeting ID: 984 6269 0288 Passcode: 683135 *Martedì 21 Marzo, ore 14:00* Sala di Consiglio, Dipartimento di Matematica, Sapienza Università di Roma *Speaker:* Marta Leocata, SNS *Title: *Modeling an example of green transition *Abstract:* The work presented is part of a collaboration between mathematicians and philosophers of ethics, politics, and society aiming to understand mechanisms of green energy transition where some kind of interaction between many subjects and collective behaviors seem to play a role. We have identified as a first example the case of solar photovoltaic, with the purpose of explaining the time series of Italy and of different regions. We use tools from continuous-time Markov chains, mean field limits, optimal control, and mean field games. Then, we specify our analysis on the case of domestic installations. In order to explain them we propose a Markovian model of interacting particle systems to describe the decision of a significant proportion of the general public in Italy on the installation of solar photovoltaics (PVs) and compare our models to real data. We assume that the adoption decision follows a well precise pattern. First, the general public develops a certain level of sensitivity to climate change and environmental issues. Then it plans to install the PVs because she/he has a sufficient amount of information on the benefits of PVs. Finally, it installs PVs because the economic benefits out-weights the costs. In conclusion, we propose some original policies, not based not on financial incentives. This work is in collaboration with Franco Flandoli (SNS), Giulia Livieri (SNS), Silvia Morlacchi (SNS), Fausto Corvino (University of Gothenburg) and Alberto Pirni (SSSA). ******************************** Vittoria Silvestri Assistant Professor Department of Mathematics University "La Sapienza" Piazzale Aldo Moro, 5 00185 - Rome ********************************

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Padova Seminars in Probability and Finance - Nicola Turchi (Università Milano Bicocca)
by alessandra bianchi 20 Mar '23

20 Mar '23

Dear Colleagues, We would like to invite you to the following seminar that will take place on March 31 at 14.30 at the Math Department of Padova. The seminar will be held in person and online via the Zoom platform. The organizers, Alessandra Bianchi, Giorgia Callegaro, Marco Formentin _____________________________________________________ *Speaker*: Nicola Turchi (Università Milano Bicocca) *Title*: High-dimensional random polytopes of the Beta kind *Date and time*: Friday, MARCH 31 at 14.30 *Place*: room 1BC45 at the Department of Mathematics, University of Padova *Zoom link*: https://unipd.zoom.us/j/82935460505 (Meeting ID 829 3546 0505) available also on the webpage https://www.math.unipd.it/~bianchi/seminari/ *Abstract*: Beta polytopes are a class of random polytopes, which arise as convex hulls of independent random points distributed according to a certain radially-symmetric probability distribution supported on the Euclidean ball, called the beta distribution. A prominent reason for the interest surrounding them is that the beta distribution exhibits peculiar properties that make exact computations possible to achieve, contrarily to most other models of randomness with non-independent coordinates. As the space dimension grows, the expected fraction of the volume that these polytopes fill within their supporting balls can be asymptotically negligible or not, depending on the number of points which are picked in each dimension. In this talk we give an overview on how to quantify this statement, first showing a rough threshold for the aforementioned growth and secondly a more precise one, namely how many points are needed to get any fraction in average. Lastly, we show how we can handle more precise asymptotics for the approach towards zero in the lower regimes of points, based on a work in progress with G. Bonnet and Z. Kabluchko. -- Alessandra Bianchi Dip. di Matematica Università di Padova Via Trieste, 63 - 35121 Padova, Italy phone: +39 049 827 14 06 fax: +39 049 827 14 28 e-mail: bianchi(a)math.unipd.it http://www.math.unipd.it/~bianchi/

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Concorso ricercatore/rice a tempo determinato di tipo b) SSD SECS-S/06 - Dip. di Scienze Economiche - Verona
by Cecilia Mancini 20 Mar '23

20 Mar '23

Nella Gazzetta Ufficiale - IV Serie Speciale n. 21 del 17/03/2023 è stato pubblicato l'avviso relativo all'indizione della procedura selettiva per il Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche: RTDB - SSD SECS-S/06 Metodi matematici dell'economia e delle scienze attuariali e finanziarie - Cod. 2023rtdb003 Bando disponibile all'Albo Ufficiale e alla pagina concorsi del sito web di Ateneo all’indirizzo: https://www.univr.it/it/concorsi/personale-docente La scadenza per la presentazione delle domande è il 17 APRILE 2023 alle ore 20.00.

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Re: PhD in theoretical probability/statistical mechanics at UU
by Vanessa Jacquier 20 Mar '23

20 Mar '23

Inoltro per conoscenza. Vanessa Jacquier > > *From: *"Ruszel, W.M. (Wioletta)" <w.m.ruszel(a)uu.nl> > *Date: *Sunday, 19 March 2023 at 22:46 > *To: *stoch-ned-l <stoch-ned-l-bounces(a)lists.science.uu.nl> > *Subject: *PhD in theoretical probability/statistical mechanics at UU > > > > Dear colleagues, > > > > There is a vacancy for a PhD position in theoretical > probability/statistical mechanics at UU. I would appreciate if you > forwarded it to potentially interested students. > > > > *Description of the project:* > > Lattice models from statistical mechanics have been successfully used in > various areas to describe macroscopic properties of interacting systems by > specifying their microscopic interactions. Key objects are Gibbs measures, > which describe macroscopic equilibrium states of large systems of many > interacting objects. In case the interaction is of finite range, the > geometry of Gibbs measures and most of its properties are well understood. > Many interesting physical systems have interactions which decay > polynomially or are of Coulomb type. In this context, many natural > questions are still open. In the PhD project we will investigate the > geometry of the simplex of Gibbs measures with nonlocal interactions, > effective interface models and their scaling limits. The research work lies > in the intersection of theoretical probability, analysis and mathematical > physics. > > > > We are looking for a student with a master’s degree in mathematics and > some affinity to theoretical physics. > > > > For more information and application please go to: > > > https://www.uu.nl/en/organisation/working-at-utrecht-university/jobs/phd-po… > > > > *Deadline for the application*: 29.04.2023. > > > > Kind regards > > Wioletta Ruszel > > >

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