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Reminder - Seminario CARLO SGARRA @ UniTo
by Federico Polito 07 Mar '17

07 Mar '17

********************************************************************* SEMINARI DI PROBABILITA' E STATISTICA MATEMATICA DIPARTIMENTO DI MATEMATICA "G. PEANO" UNIVERSITA' DEGLI STUDI DI TORINO ********************************************************************* *::..Reminder..::* Mercoledì 15 Marzo 2017 alle ore 11:30 in Aula C presso il Dipartimento di Matematica "G. Peano" dell'Università degli Studi di Torino, Via Carlo Alberto 10, Il Prof. CARLO SGARRA (Politecnico di Milano) terrà un seminario dal titolo A BRANCHING PROCESS-BASED APPROACH TO POWER MARKETS (The talk will be mainly based on a joint paper with Y. Jiao, C. Ma and S. Scotti). Abstract: Energy markets, and in particular, electricity markets, exhibit very peculiar features. The historical series of both futures and spot prices include seasonality, mean-reversion, spikes and small fluctuations. Very often a stochastic volatility dynamics is postulated in order to explain their high degree of variability. After the pioneering paper by Schwartz, where an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics is assumed to describe the spot price behavior, several different approaches have been investigated in order to describe the price evolution. High frequency trading, on the other hand, introduced some new features in commodity prices dynamics: in a recent paper by V. Filimonov, D. Bicchetti, N. Maystre and D. Sornette evidence is shown of endogeneity and structural regime shift, and in order to quantify this level the branching ratio is adopted as a measure of this endogenous impact and a Hawkes processes dynamics is assumed as a reasonable modelling framework taking into account the self-exciting properties. The purpose of the present investigation is to propose a new modeling framework including all the above mentioned features, still keeping a high level of tractability. The model considered allows to obtain the most common derivatives prices in closed or semi-closed form. Here with semi-closed we mean that the Laplace transform of the derivative price admits an explicit expression. The models we are going to introduce can describe the prices dynamics in two different forms, that can be proved to be equivalent: the first is a representation based on random fields, the second is based on Continuous Branching Processes with Immigration (CBI in the following). Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Un saluto, -- Federico Polito Department of Mathematics University of Torino Via Carlo Alberto, 10 10123, Torino, Italy Email: fpolito(a)unito.it Tel: +39 011 6702862 Web: www.federicopolito.it

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PhD course in GeoStatistics
by Laura M. Sangalli 07 Mar '17

07 Mar '17

The following PhD course in Geostatistics will be held at the Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano The course covers classical and advanced models and methods for the statistical analysis of data with spatial dependence. Lectures include tutorial sessions with the software R. Many case studies will be presented, with applications in the earth-sciences, in the neurosciences and more generally in the life-sciences (including medical imaging), and in the engineering. Lessons: 1 & 2) Kriging: stationary and isotropic random fields; structural properties of the variogram; valid variogram models; variogram estimation; kriging prediction for georeferenced data; drift estimation; kriging for data in Hilbert spaces. Lecturer: A. Menafoglio. 3) Non-parametric techniques. Lecturer: Simone Vantini. 4) Bayesian models for georeferenced data and areal data. Lecturer: A. Guglielmi. 5) Numerical methods for the analysis of spatially distributed data: thin-plate splines; tensor product splines. Lecturer: L. Sangalli. 6) Spatial regression with differential regularization. Lecturer: L. Sangalli. Essential bibliography: - N. Cressie. Statistics for Spatial data. John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1993. - S. Banerjee, B. P. Carlin, and A. E. Gelfand. Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data. Chapman & Hall / CRC, 2004. - R. Bivand, E. Pebesma, V. Gomez-Rubio. Applied Spatial Data Analysis with R. Springer, 2008 Calendar: Tuesday 7/3, 14:30-17:30, aula del Consiglio, seventh floor; Kriging; Lecturer: Alessandra Menafoglio Thursday 9/3, 10:00-13:00, aula Seminari, sixth floor; Kriging; Lecturer: Alessandra Menafoglio Tuesday 21/3, 14:30-17:30, aula Seminari, sixth floor; Non-parametric techniques; Lecturer: Simone Vantini Thursday 23/3, 14:30-17:30, aula Seminari, sixth floor; Bayesian models for georeferenced data and areal data; Lecturer: Alessandra Guglielmi Tuesday 28/3, 14:30-17:30, aula Seminari, sixth floor; Numerical methods for the analysis of spatially distributed data; Lecturer: Laura Sangalli Thursday 30/3, 14:30-17:30, aula Seminari, sixth floor; Spatial regression with differential regularization; Lecturer: Laura Sangalli People interested to attend are kindly requested to write an email to laura.sangalli(a)polimi.it -- Laura Maria Sangalli MOX - Dipartimento di Matematica Politecnico di Milano Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 20133 Milano - Italy tel: +39 02 2399 4554 fax: +39 02 2399 4568 email: laura.sangalli(a)polimi.it url: http://mox.polimi.it/~sangalli

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de Finetti risk seminar - March 2017
by Emanuela Rosazza 06 Mar '17

06 Mar '17

On behalf of the Scientific Committee of the de Finetti Risk Seminars, we are glad to invite you to participate at the following Lecture TITLE: Duality formulas for robust pricing and hedging in discrete time Patrick Cheridito ETH Zurich ABSTRACT: In this paper we derive robust super- and subhedging dualities for contingent claims that can depend on several underlying assets. In addition to strict super- and subhedging, we also consider relaxed versions which, instead of eliminating the shortfall risk completely, aim to reduce it to an acceptable level. This yields robust price bounds with tighter spreads. As applications we study strict super- and subhedging with general convex transaction costs and trading constraints as well as risk based hedging with respect to robust versions of the average value at risk and entropic risk measure. Our approach is based on representation results for increasing convex functionals and allows for general financial market structures. As a side result it yields a robust version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. Joint work with Michael Kupper and Ludovic Tangpi. LOCATION: The seminar will be held on Wednesday, March 15, at 18.00, Aula di rappresentanza, Dept. of Mathematics, Milano University, Via C. Saldini 50, Milano. A refreshment will be offered at 17.30. Scientific Committee Prof. Simone Cerreia-Voglio (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Marco Frittelli (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) Prof. Fabio Maccheroni (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Massimo Marinacci (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Emanuela Rosazza Gianin (Univ. Milano-Bicocca) Dott. Marco Maggis (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) **************************************************** Emanuela Rosazza Gianin Dipartimento di Statistica e Metodi Quantitativi Università di Milano Bicocca Edificio U7 – 4° Piano Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8 20126 Milano Tel. 02 64483208 Fax. 02 64483105 e-mail: emanuela.rosazza1(a)unimib.it *****************************************************

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Fwd: Bocconi Summer School in Statistics & Probability, 10-22 July 2017
by Pietro Muliere 06 Mar '17

06 Mar '17

Oggetto: [Forum SIS] Bocconi Summer School in Statistics & Probability, 10-22 July 2017 --> CALL FOR APPLICATIONS Bocconi Summer School in Advanced Statistics and Probability: "Statistical Causal Learning", July 10-22, 2017 http://spas.lakecomoschool.org We are pleased to announce the "Bocconi Summer School in Advanced Statistics and Probability", organized and sponsored by Bocconi University, Milano, in collaboration with the Lake Como School of Advanced Studies. The aim of the Bocconi Summer School is to establish a track of high level courses on advanced and cutting-edge topics in Statistics and Probability and related areas. The school is open to all interested scholars, but is especially addressed to doctoral students, and possibly to brilliant MSc graduates interested in pursuing doctoral studies in Statistics, Probability, Computer Science, Applied Mathematics, Operation Research and related fields. The School is hosted yearly at Villa del Grumello, on the shores of the Lake of Como, usually in July. The 2017 edition, on "STATISTICAL CAUSAL LEARNING", will take place on 10-22 July, 2017. INSTRUCTORS: * Bernhard Schölkopf (Empirical Inference Department Director, Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Tubingen); * Ilya Tolstikhin (Research Scientist, Max Plank Institute for Intelligent Systems, Tubingen); * David Lopez-Paz (Researcher at Facebook AI Research, Paris). APPLICATIONS: The School will be open to 30 qualified and selected students. Applications can be submitted BY APRIL 7, 2017, through the form: http://spas.lakecomoschool.org/application-form/ REGISTRATION and FEES. Admitted participants should register by May 7, 2017. The registration fee (450 euro) covers all the school activities and course material; wi-fi connections; all work-days lunches in the beautiful park of Villa del Grumello and accommodation in the Guest House of the Villa and in other facilities in the immediate surroundings for the 2 weeks (July 9 – July 22, 2017). For any further information, please visit the website http://spas.lakecomoschool.org or contact BBS.statistics(a)unibocconi.it

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seminario Università Bicocca
by daniela.bertacchi 06 Mar '17

06 Mar '17

ANNUNCIO DI SEMINARIO Il giorno 13/3/2017 alle ore 15 esatte, in aula 3014 presso il Dipartimento di Matematica e Applicazioni dell'Università di Milano-Bicocca, il professor Rafael De Mattos Grisi (Universidade Federal do ABC -Brasile) terrà un seminario dal titolo A view on maximal spacings in several dimensions tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Abstract: Let K be a compact subset of R^d and N a Poisson process on K. The maximal spacing of N on K is defined as the radius of the largest open ball in K, avoiding the points of N. Considering N homogenized with intensity t, Jason('87) studied the behaviour of the maximal spacing of N as t goes to infinity. In 1983, Deheuvels studied the asymptotic behaviour of the k-th maximal spacing considering K a hypercube and measuring the spaces also using hypercubes. More recently Fraiman et.al.('15) studied the non-homogeneous case. In this ongoing work, we try to generalize Jason's results, studying the behaviour of k-th maximal spacing for the homogeneous process. This is a joint work with Pablo Ferrari, from Universidad de Buenos Aires.

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Seminario di Probabilita, Pisa, Mercoledi 8 marzo, ore 11:00
by Carina Geldhauser 06 Mar '17

06 Mar '17

Annuncio Seminario di Probabilita, Pisa, Dipartmento di Matematica, Universita di Pisa Mercoledi, 8 marzo, ore 11:00, Aula Seminari Seminario di Probabilita SPEAKER 1 (ore 11:00): Francesca R. Nardi, University of Florence TITLE: Metastability for General Dynamics with Rare Transitions: Escape Time and Critical Configurations ABSTRACT: Metastability is an ubiquitous physical phenomenon in first order phase transitions. A fruitful mathematical way to approach this phenomenon is the study of rare transitions for Markov chains. For Metropolis chains associated with statistical mechanical systems, this phenomenon has been described in an elegant way through a pathwise approach in terms of the energy landscape associated to the Hamiltonian of the system. In the seminar we will first explain the main results and ideas of this approach and compare it with other existing ones. Then we will provide a similar description in the general rare transitions setup that can be applied to irreversible systems as well. Besides their theoretical content, we believe that our results are a useful tool to approach metastability for non-Metropolis systems such as Probabilistic Cellular Automata. Moreover, we will describe results pertaining to exponential hitting times which range of applicability includes irreversible systems, systems with exponentially growing volumes and systems with a general starting measure. (joint work with Emilio N. M. Cirillo, R. Fernandez, F. Manzo, E. Scoppola and J. Sohier). Dopo una pausa di circa 5min, proseguiamo con SPEAKER 2 (ore 12:00): Valeria De Mattei, Universita di Pisa TITLE: Mean field games with mean field and moderate interactions ABSTRACT: We consider a mean field game where N players interact both inthe cost functionals and in the dynamics. The new feature is that thedynamical interaction is of the so called "moderate" type, intermediatebetween the more classical mean field interaction and a strictly localinteraction. A modification of the classical mean field game scheme ispresented. Convergence to a system of PDEs, the mean field equation forour system, is discussed. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Per informazioni scrivere a carina.geldhauser(a)dm.unipi.it <mailto:carina.geldhauser@dm.unipi.it>

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Fwd: [World] Summer school on networks, in Berlin (Aug 21-Sep 1 2017)
by Gustavo Posta 06 Mar '17

06 Mar '17

Begin forwarded message: > From: Cécile Mailler <c.mailler(a)bath.ac.uk> > Date: 06 marzo 2017 12.03.15 GMT+01.00 > Subject: [World] Summer school on networks, in Berlin (Aug 21-Sep 1 2017) > > Dear all, > > This is the first announcement of the summer school on > > Probabilistic and statistical methods for networks > to be held at TU Berlin, 21 August - 1 September 2017. > > The summer school will focus on probabilistic and statistical methods for networks. This is an enormously rich topic that has many connections between branches of mathematics, and applications to many other scientific disciplines. The central theme is randomness that may arise in various forms: it can be used to construct models for networks, to analyse networks using statistical methods, or as part of stochastic processes on networks. One strand of the school will consider the theory of statistical physics models on networks; another strand will develop tools of statistical inference in network data; and a third strand investigates applications such as networks in neuroscience, traffic and telecommunication. > > The School is primarily aimed at graduate students, but also at postdocs, working in applied probability or in one of the application fields with strong probabilistic flavour. > > Speakers: > Shankar Bhamidi (North Carolina) > Benedikt Jahnel (Berlin) > Max Klimm (Berlin) > Peter Mörters (Bath) > Tiago Peixoto (Bath) > Jörg Polzehl / Karsten Tabelow (Berlin) > Klaus Obermayer / Wilhelm Stannat (Berlin) > Lenka Zdeborová (Saclay) > > For further details and registration, see https://www.math-berlin.de/academics/summer-schools/2017/randgraph. > Registration will be open from 1 April 2017 until 31 May 2017. > > The summer school is supported by the EPSRC via the Centre for Doctoral Training in Statistical Applied Mathematics (SAMBa) at the University of Bath, the DFG via the Berlin Mathematical School and by the Weierstrass Institute for Applied Analysis and Stochastics, Berlin. > > Please direct scientific questions about the school to the organisers. > We hope to see you in Berlin at the end of August. > > Best wishes, > > Wolfgang König, koenig(a)wias-berlin.de > Cécile Mailler, c.mailler(a)bath.ac.uk > Marcel Ortgiese, m.ortgiese(a)bath.ac.uk > Matt Roberts, mattiroberts(a)gmail.com > Tim Rogers, t.c.rogers(a)bath.ac.uk > _______________________________________________ > World mailing list > World(a)aleanetwork.net > http://aleanetwork.net/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/world

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International Conference in Venice - CALL FOR PAPERS - DEADLINE May 31, 2017
by Monica Billio 06 Mar '17

06 Mar '17

16^th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE CREDIT 2017 */INTEREST RATES, GROWTH and REGULATION /*Venice, Italy 28-29 September 2017 *GRETA Associati *(Venice, Italy), the *European Investment Fund* (Luxembourg) and *Intesa Sanpaolo* (Milan, Italy) are co-sponsors of a Conference to be held in Venice on September 28-29, 2017. The objective of the Conference is to bring together academics, practitioners and PhD students working in the area of risk management. The conference will provide an opportunity for participants engaged in research at the forefront of this area to discuss both the causes and implications of recent events in financial markets and may, in turn, suggest fruitful directions for future research. The Conference, organised under the auspices of the *Department of Economics of the University Ca' Foscari of Venice*, *ABI - Italian Banking Association *and *European Investment Bank*, is the *sixteenth* of a series dedicated to various aspects of credit risk. Since 2007, the financial crisis has triggered deep changes of various kinds. Central banks have experimented new monetary policies (low interest rates, quantitative easing, forward guidance...). The banking industry has had to develop new asset management strategies and to adjust its credit allocation practices in order to cope with a new environment characterized, in particular, by a prolonged period of very low risk-free returns. Alternatives and complements to commercial banking have continued their progress. Meanwhile, regulatory frameworks have been reshaped all around the world, with the introduction of new requirements or guidelines. All these changes have called for a substantial amount of research to improve the knowledge of the mechanisms at play during the crisis, to design adapted policy tools and to provide a better description of the new economic and financial environment. The organizers encourage submissions of papers on any topic within the overall theme of the conference and in the following areas in particular: * Low interest rates and asset management: emergence of alternative asset classes; changes in banks asset management, repositioning towards wealth management services. * Low interest rates and econometric modelling: Zero Lower Bound; lift off; unconventional monetary policy; default risk; contagion and systemic risk. * Interest rates and alternative financing: venture capital; credit risk in p2p lending/crowdfunding, is there adverse selection? the financing of SMEs; impact on the real economy. * New regulation environment: impact of Basel 4; internal models versus standardized approach; international harmonization; impact of TLAC (total loss absorbent capacity) and IFRS9. The Scientific Committee for the Conference consists of: *Alain Monfort* (CREST-Paris, Programme Chair) *Monica Billio* (Ca' Foscari University of Venice) *Francesca Campolongo* (EU-JRC Unit 'Financial and Economic Analysis') *Helmut Kraemer-Eis* (Head EIF's Research & Market Analysis) *Jan Peter Krahnen* (SAFE - Goethe University) *Steven Ongena* (University of Zurich, SFI & CEPR) *Jean-Paul Renne* (University of Lausanne) *Fulvio Pegoraro* (Bank of France) *Bernd Schwaab* (European Central Bank) CALL FOR PAPERS The final program will include both submitted and invited papers. Acceptances received so far from invited speakers include *Thomas Philippon *(New York University), *Manju Puri* (Duke University) and *Jean-Paul Renne* (University of Lausanne). The Conference will also feature a panel discussion on researchers' and practitioners' views of the major outstanding problems. Those wishing to present a paper at the Conference should submit by *May 31, 2017* to the address given below (preferably in electronic format). Please indicate to whom correspondence should be addressed. Decisions regarding acceptance will be made by *July 10, 2017*. The final version of accepted papers must be received by August 31, 2017. Please send papers to: GRETA Associati San Polo, 2605 - 30125 Venice, ITALY Phone : +39 041 5238178 - Fax : +39 041 5286166 e-mail: credit(a)greta.it <mailto:credit@greta.it> Local Organisers: *Davide Alfonsi* (Intesa Sanpaolo), *Monica Billio* (Ca' Foscari University of Venice & GRETA), *Andrea Giacomelli* (Knowshape & GRETA), *Pier Luigi Gilibert* (European Investment Fund) and *Domenico Sartore* (Ca' Foscari University of Venice & GRETA) IMPORTANT DATES May 31, 2017: Papers submission deadline July 10, 2017: Paper acceptance notification August 31, 2017: Deadline for sending final version of accepted papers More detailed information available on the Conference website: http://www.greta.it/credit/credit2017/credit2017.htm <http://www.greta.it/credit/credit2017/credit2017.htm>

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Seminario C. Ceci a Padova: cambio data e ora
by Giorgia Callegaro 06 Mar '17

06 Mar '17

Carissimi, mi scuso con i non interessati e scrivo per comunicarvi che il seminario della Prof.ssa Claudia Ceci (Università di Chieti-Pescara), dal titolo Credit derivatives and unit-linked life insurance contracts: optimal hedging in partially observable market models avrà luogo, diversamente da quanto indicato in una mia precedente mail, il giorno martedì *14 marzo *2017 alle ore *16.30* presso il Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Universita' di Padova, via Trieste 63, aula 2BC30 (secondo piano). Grazie per l'attenzione, saluti a tutti, Giorgia Callegaro -- Giorgia Callegaro Assistant Professor Department of Mathematics - University of Padova Via Trieste 63 , I-35121 Padova - ITALY Tel: +39-0498271481 Fax: +39-0498271499 E-Mail: gcallega(a)math.unipd.it <https://webmail.math.unipd.it/horde3/imp/message.php?mailbox=Sent&index=598#> Personal web-page: https://sites.google.com/site/giogiocallegaro/Home

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Reminder -- First Italian Meeting on Probability and Mathematical Stastistics
by Federico Polito 04 Mar '17

04 Mar '17

*First Italian Meeting on Probability and Mathematical Statistics* *June 19-22, 2017, Torino, Italy* *Reminder* Website: http://calvino.polito.it/~probstat/torino2017/ The conference website is now updated with the latest available information. Please visit it for more details. *::..* Note that the registration is still open. *Deadline for registration: March 31, 2017* *..::* We are looking forward to meeting you in Torino next June. On behalf of the Organizing Committee, Federico Polito -- Federico Polito Department of Mathematics University of Torino Via Carlo Alberto, 10 10123, Torino, Italy Email: fpolito(a)unito.it Tel: +39 011 6702862 Web: www.federicopolito.it

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