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seminar announcement
by Marco Scarsini 16 Sep '16

16 Sep '16

Thursday 22 September, from 12.00 to 13.00, room 207 viale Romania 32 00197 Rome. Speaker: Frank Riedel (Bielefeld University) Title: Ambiguous Actions in Games Abstract: We propose a framework for normal form games where players can use Knightian uncertainty strategically. In such Ellsberg games, ambiguity–averse players may render their actions objectively ambiguous by using devices such as Ellsberg urns, in addition to the standard mixed strategies. While Nash equilibria remain equilibria in the extended game, there arise new Ellsberg equilibria with distinct outcomes, as we illustrate by negotiation games with three players. We characterize Ellsberg equilibria in two–person games with conflicting interests. These equilibria turn out to be consistent with experimental deviations from Nash equilibrium play. We also discuss extensions to dynamic games and a version of Harsanyi’s purification theorem if time permits. ******************************************************* Marco Scarsini Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza LUISS Viale Romania 32 00197 Roma, ITALY URL: http://docenti.luiss.it/scarsini/

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Avviso Seminario: 26 Settembre 2016 - Federico Polito
by Enrica Pirozzi 15 Sep '16

15 Sep '16

LUNEDI 26 Settembre 2016 ore 14:30 nell'aula E del Dipartimento Matematica e Applicazioni, Università di Napoli FEDERICO II, Complesso di Monte Sant'Angelo, Via Cintia, Napoli FEDERICO POLITO (Dipartimento di Matematica, Università di Torino) terrà un seminario dal titolo: PRABHAKAR OPERATORS AND RELATED STOCHASTIC PROCESSES Abstract: Prabhakar operators are convolution-type operator with a Prabhakar function (generalized Mittag-Leffler function) in the kernel. They generalize the classical Riemann-Liouville and Caputo fractional calculus operators and are connected to specific time-changed or subordinated stochastic processes. We discuss the results obtained in several articles and provide examples. -- Enrica Pirozzi Dipartimento di Matematica e Applicazioni Universita' di Napoli FEDERICO II Via Cintia, Monte S.Angelo, 80126, NAPOLI, ITALY Tel. 081 675634 https://www.docenti.unina.it/ENRICA.PIROZZI

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alcune cose divertenti
by Roberto Guenzani 14 Sep '16

14 Sep '16

Saluti! Ho scelto un paio di cosa divertenti per te, mi stanno facendo impazzire! Ti prego di dare un'occhiata <http://lessandra.ajlconsultingltd.com/fom> Cordialmente,Roberto Guenzani

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Avviso Seminario: 20 Settembre 2016 - Giorgio Ferrari
by Gabriele Stabile 13 Sep '16

13 Sep '16

*Martedì 20 Settembre ore 13:00 *presso l'aula di Matematica (Sapienza Università di Roma, Dipartimento MEMOTEF, Via del Castro Laurenziano 9, Roma - Facoltà di Economia, 1° piano) *Giorgio Ferrari* (Center for Mathematical Economics (IMW) Bielefeld University, Germany ) terrà un seminario dal titolo *"Stochastic nonzero-sum games: a new connection between singular control and optimal stopping"* Abstract: In this talk I present a new connection between a class of 2-player nonzero-sum games of optimal stopping and certain 2-player nonzero-sum games of singular control. I show that whenever a Nash equilibrium in the game of stopping is attained by hitting times at two separate boundaries, then such boundaries also trigger a Nash equilibrium in the game of singular control. Moreover a differential link between the players' value functions holds across the two games. An application to a problem of pollution control is finally discussed. The talk is based on a joint work with Tiziano De Angelis (The University of Leeds). Si invitano gli interessati a partecipare Saluti Gabriele Stabile

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Seminario REN
by Matteo Ruggiero 12 Sep '16

12 Sep '16

******************************************************************* STATISTICS SEMINARS @ COLLEGIO CARLO ALBERTO ******************************************************************* Venerdi 16 Settembre 2016 alle ore 12:00, presso l’Aula 5 del Collegio Carlo Alberto, Moncalieri (TO), si terra' il seguente seminario: Boyu REN (Harvard University) A BAYESIAN NONPARAMETRIC MODEL FOR MICROBIOME DATA ANALYSIS We develop a statistical model to analyse microbiome profiling data based on sequencing of genetic fingerprints in 16S ribosomal RNA. The analysis allows us to quantify the uncertainty in ecological ordination and clustering methods commonly applied in microbiome research. In addition, it can be extended into a framework for association studies when sample characteristics are available. The method is based on the estimation of the underlying microbial distribution in experimental samples using a dependent Dirichet Process prior in which dependence is expressed through the combination of low-dimensional latent features and observed sample covariates. This type of model is advantageous for several reasons. First, information is borrowed across samples to estimate underlying microbial distributions. Second, the nonparametric nature of the model avoids the artefacts of truncation and rarefaction techniques. Lastly, the Bayesian framework mitigates the effects of multiple testing for associations between covariates and species abundance and other hypotheses of interest. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Il seminario e' organizzato dalla "de Castro" Statistics Initiative (http://www.carloalberto.org/stats) in collaborazione con il Collegio Carlo Alberto. Cordiali saluti, Matteo Ruggiero --- Matteo Ruggiero University of Torino and Collegio Carlo Alberto www.matteoruggiero.it

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2 years position in dynamical systems, computational ergodic theory, randomness and pseudo-randomness
by Stefano Marmi 12 Sep '16

12 Sep '16

Dear Collegue, I would be grateful if you could bring to the attention of your best postgraduate students and PhD holders that a two years long research position in “Dynamical systems, computational ergodic theory, randomness and pseudo-randomness” is available at the Scuola Normale Superiore in Pisa. PhD students can also apply, provided they obtain their PhD no later than 31st december 2016. *Deadline for application is September 26th 2016.* The annual gross remuneration is around 32,000 Euros, corresponding to a monthly salary of approximately 2,000 Euros. *Full official call can be retrieved at* http://en.sns.it/bando/research-contract-named-%E2%80% 9Cdynamical-systems-computational-ergodic-theory-randomness-and-pseudo Yours sincerely, Stefano Marmi

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MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND ROBUST FINANCE
by Giovanni Puccetti 12 Sep '16

12 Sep '16

ABSTRACT DEADLINE (September 30) APPROACHING FOR MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND ROBUST FINANCE https://sites.google.com/site/2016murf/ <https://sites.google.com/site/2016murf/> University of Milan, 10-11 November 2016 INVITED SPEAKERS: Giorgio DALL'AGLIO (Special historical talk) David HOBSON (University of Warwick) Jan OBLOJ (University of Oxford) Bernt ØKSENDAL (University of Oslo) Halil Mete SONER (ETH Zurich) Steven VANDUFFEL (VRIJE Brussels) FREE REGISTRATION FOR ACCEPTED CONTRIBUTED SPEAKERS

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seminar announcement
by Marco Scarsini 09 Sep '16

09 Sep '16

Thursday 15 September, from 12.00 to 13.00, room 207 viale Romania 32 00197 Rome. Speaker: Panayotis Mertikopoulos (CNRS and LIG, Grenoble, France) Title: Learning in concave games with imperfect information Abstract: This paper examines the convergence properties of a class of learning schemes for concave N-person games - that is, games with convex action spaces and individually concave payoff functions. Specifically, we focus on a family of learning methods where players adjust their actions by taking small steps along their individual payoff gradients and then "mirror" the output back to their feasible action spaces. Assuming players only have access to gradient information that is accurate up to a zero-mean error with bounded variance, we show that when the process converges, its limit is a Nash equilibrium. We also introduce an equilibrium stability notion which we call variational stability (VS), and we show that stable equilibria are locally attracting with high probability whereas globally stable states are globally attracting with probability 1. Additionally, in finite games, we find that dominated strategies become extinct, strict equilibria are locally attracting with high probability, and the long-term average of the process converges to equilibrium in 2-player zero-sum games. Finally, we examine the scheme's convergence speed and we show that if the game admits a strict equilibrium and the players' mirror maps are surjective, then, with high probability, the process converges to equilibrium in a finite number of steps, no matter the level of uncertainty. ******************************************************* Marco Scarsini Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza LUISS Viale Romania 32 00197 Roma, ITALY URL: http://docenti.luiss.it/scarsini/

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Seminario di Giovanni Barone Adesi presso Dipartimento di Informatica, UniVr - 16 Settembre 2016
by Luca di persio 08 Sep '16

08 Sep '16

Con preghiera di diffusione. Seminario del Dipartimento di Informatica venerdì 16 settembre 2016, Sala Verde, ore 15.00 (rinfresco 14.45, inizio seminario 15.00) Giovanni Barone Adesi, Università della Svizzera italiana "WTI Crude oil option implied VaR and CVaR: an empirical application" Abstract In a recent theoretical paper Barone Adesi (2015) shows how to extract the option implied VaR and CVaR. This is the fi rst empirical application of that paper. We extract the 2014-2015 daily option implied VaR and CVaR from the WTI crude oil future prices and the options written on it. Without relying on any distributional assumption we are able to backtest the CVaR values, thus proposing a coherent and elicitable risk measure. From a forecasting viewpoint a ratio of the two risk measures allows us to predict the probability density of jumps in the underlying price, which would have been unpredictable with standard inference methods. Keywords: Option Prices, Risk Measures, Var and Cvar, Elicitability. http://search.usi.ch/people/5be736fa2b7c09db295e1b3747f643b9/Barone-Adesi-G… Contact Person: Luca Di Persio __ Luca Di Persio - PhD assistant professor of Probability and Mathematical Finance Dept. Informatics University of Verona strada le Grazie 15 - 37134 Verona - Italy Dept. Math University of Trento V. Sommarive, 14 - 38123 Povo - Italy Tel : +39 0461 281686

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Stochastic Analysis workshop - 19 Sept 2016 - Leeds UK
by Elena Issoglio 08 Sep '16

08 Sep '16

*deadline approaching* Dear colleagues, This is to announce a one-day workshop on Topics in SDEs and their link to (S)PDEs. The workshop will be held in the School of Mathematics in Leeds (UK) on 19 September 2016. Registration is FREE but COMPULSORY (for catering porpuses). If you intend to take part please send an email to Elena Issoglio (e.issoglio(a)leeds.ac.uk) by Monday 12th September. _______________________ Programme 12:00-13:00 - Buffet lunch 13:00-13:45 - Russo, F. - BSDEs, càdlàg martingale problems and mean-variance hedging under basis risk 13:45-14:30 - Issoglio, E. - Forward-Backward SDEs with distributional coefficients 14:30-14:50 - Shi, Q. - American Eagle Options 14:50-15:30 - Coffee Break 15:30-16:15 - Dos Reis, G. - Ideas on pathwise directional derivatives beyond Cameron-Martin directions 16:15-16:35 - Dhariwal, G. - 2D Stochastic Constrained Navier-Stokes Equations 16:35-16:55 - Johnson, P. - Optimal Stopping in Mathematical Statistics 18:30 - Social Dinner ________________________ This workshop is sponsored by the LMS. Partial travel funding is available for young researchers including PhDs and Post-Docs. Please email Elena for further information about financial support. For more details see http://www.maths.leeds.ac.uk/topics_in_sdes Best wishes, Elena Dr Elena Issoglio Lecturer in Financial Mathematics Office 11.02, School of Mathematics School of Mathematics, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT E: e.issoglio(a)leeds.ac.uk<mailto:e.issoglio@leeds.ac.uk> T: 0113 34 3 4660

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Avviso di seminari
by Eva Riccomagno 08 Sep '16

08 Sep '16

Buongiorno a Tutti, Si informa che lunedi’ 12 settembre presso il Dipartimento di Matematica dell’Universita’ di Genova, aula 715, si terranno i due seguenti seminari. Cordiali saluti, Eva Riccomagno ore 15.:30 Manuele Leonelli, Instituto de Matemática, Universidade Federal do Rio De Janeiro, UFRJ https://sites.google.com/site/manueleleonelli <https://sites.google.com/site/manueleleonelli> TITLE: Bayesian semiparametric multivariate models for extreme exceedances ABSTRACT: Interest on extremal events generally involves the joint study of many concomitant variables, as for instance wave height and surge. We build on previous work which specifically accounted for marginal exceedances over a high, unknown threshold, by combining it with flexible families of copulae. This approach allows for the detection of specific patterns of dependence be them extremal or not. Attention is also devoted to the ascertainment of asymptotic independence, where standard multivariate extreme value theory is not applicable. Estimation of higher quantiles and other quantities of interest is performed both marginally and conditionally via MCMC algorithms. Our approach is evaluated through a series of simulations and is applied to real data sets. ore 16:30 Alessio Signori, Dipartimento di Scienze della Salute, Universita’ degli Studi di Genova TITLE: Longitudinal trajectories of EDSS in primary progressive multiple sclerosis patients A latent class approach ABSTRACT: Background. Over the last decades several natural history studies on primary progressive MS (PPMS) patients were reported from international registries. In this population a consistent heterogeneity was observed in the rate of disability accumulation, as time to reach the milestone of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 6 ranged between 7 and 14 years from onset. Objectives. To identify subgroups of PPMS patients with similar longitudinal trajectories of EDSS over time. Methods. All PPMS patients collected within the MSBase international registry, who had their first EDSS assessment within 5 years from onset were included in the analysis. Longitudinal EDSS scores were modelled by a latent class mixed model (LCMM), using a nonlinear function of time from onset. LCMM is an advanced statistical approach that models heterogeneity between patients by classifying them into unobserved groups (latent classes) showing similar characteristics. Results. A total of 853 PPMS (51.7% females) from 24 countries with a mean age at onset of 42.4 yrs (SD: 10.8 yrs), a median baseline EDSS of 4 (IQR: 2.5-5.5) and 2.4 yrs of disease duration (SD: 1.5 yrs) were included. LCMM detected 3 different subgroups of patients with a mild (n=143 ;16.8%), moderate (n=378; 44.3%) or severe (n=332; 38.9%) disability trajectory. Median time to EDSS 4 was 14, 5 and 3.7 years respectively, for the 3 groups. The probability of reaching EDSS 6 at 10 years was 0%, 46.5% and 83.1% respectively. Using this modelling approach it is possible to predict the future disease course of a subject with PPMS using early EDSS assessments. Using only 1 year of EDSS monitoring 73% of patients are correctly classified in their disability trajectory group (mild, moderate or severe); after 3 years this proportion increases to 87% and after 5 years it reaches 92%. Conclusions. Using long-term observations and an LCMM modelling approach, it is possible to build a dynamic model, to predict the future disability trajectory of newly diagnosed PPMS patients. In the design of future clinical trials in PPMS, using time to reach disability milestones as the primary endpoint, the existence of heterogeneous classes of patients should be considered. ________________________________________________________ Prof. Eva Riccomagno Dipartimento di Matematica - Universita` degli Studi di Genova Via Dodecaneso, 35 - 16146 Genova - ITALIA Tel: +39 - 010 - 353 6938 Fax: +39 - 010 - 353 6960 www.dima.unige.it/~riccomag

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First Italian Meeting on Probability and Mathematical Stastistics
by Federico Polito 08 Sep '16

08 Sep '16

We are glad to inform you that the webpage of the First Italian Meeting on Probability and Mathematical Statistics is now online: http://calvino.polito.it/~probstat/torino2017 There you can find updated news about the meeting (deadlines, abstract submission and contributed sessions submission). Please, do not forget to consult it! With the hope to cover the wide spectrum of subjects of the Italian research on Probability and Mathematical Statistics, we expect many Contributed Sessions Proposals. On behalf of the organizing Committee, Federico Polito -- Federico Polito Department of Mathematics University of Torino Via Carlo Alberto, 10 10123, Torino, Italy Email: federico.polito(a)unito.it Tel: +39 011 6702937 Web: www.federicopolito.it

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ICEEE 2017 - call for papers
by Monica Billio 07 Sep '16

07 Sep '16

Seventh Italian Congress of Econometrics and Empirical Economics (ICEEE 2017) The Italian Econometric Association (SIdE) is pleased to announce the Seventh Italian Congress of Econometrics and Empirical Economics (ICEEE 2017), which will take place January 25-27, 2017, in Messina, Italy. Economists, statisticians and econometricians are invited to submit theoretical and applied papers in all areas of econometrics and empirical economics. Invited speakers: Maria Cristina De Nardi (University College London, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, IFS and NBER), Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School). Conference webpage: http://virgo.unive.it/side/?page_id=1745 Submission of papers is now possible via Easychair: ** https://easychair.org/conferences/?conf=iceee7th (with a limit of one paper per submitter) at https://easychair.org/conferences/?conf=iceee7th. The deadline for submission is September 30, 2016. The decision notification date is November 20, 2016. Program Committee: Erich Battistin (Queen Mary University of London), Monica Billio (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice - Chair), Fabio Canova (BI Norwegian Business School), Roberto Casarin (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice), Giuseppe Cavaliere (University of Bologna), Massimiliano Caporin (University of Padua), Valentina Corradi (University of Warwick), Fulvio Corsi (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice), Walter Distaso (Imperial College London and University of Messina), Luca Fanelli (University of Bologna), Mario Forni (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia), Raffaella Giacomini (University College London), Tullio Jappelli (University of Naples “Federico II”), Simone Manganelli (European Central Bank, Frankfurt), Raffaele Miniaci (University of Brescia), Chiara Monfardini (University of Bologna), Edoardo Otranto (University of Messina), Franco Peracchi (University of Rome “Tor Vergata”), Elena Pesavento (Emory University), Francesco Ravazzolo (Free University of Bozen), Barbara Rossi (ICREA-Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE and CREI), Eduardo Rossi (University of Pavia and European Commission Joint Research Center), Alessandro Tarozzi (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE). Local organizing Committee: Walter Distaso (Imperial College and University of Messina – Chair), Leone Leonida (University of Messina and King’s College), Dario Maimone Ansaldo Patti (University of Messina) Prizes: One prize of Euro 1,500 will be awarded to the best conference paper written by young scientists in Macroeconometrics or Financial Econometrics (Carlo Giannini Prize, offered by SIdE). One prize of Euro 2,500 will be awarded to the best conference paper written by young scientists in Theoretical or Applied Microeconometrics (Labour Prize, offered by LABOUR: Review of Labour Economics and Industrial Relations). For eligibility to both prizes, all authors of a paper must be no more than 4 years past the PhD defense.

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ARPM job opportunity
by Elisa Appolloni 07 Sep '16

07 Sep '16

Dear all, I am reaching out to you because at ARPM (the company for which I work) we are looking to add new resources for our Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management program. Would you mind circulating the message below to interested and qualified candidates? Thank you, Elisa Appolloni *** *The firm* ARPM – Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management <https://www.arpm.co/> is a privately held research institution, directed by Attilio Meucci, based in New York City with virtual offices world-wide. ARPM’s mission is to set and disseminate the standards for advanced quantitative risk management and portfolio management across the financial industry: asset management, banking, and insurance. *The opportunity * ARPM is looking for a new researcher-in-training for a minimum period of 6 months, indefinitely extensible. The successful candidate will review and code practical case studies and theoretical examples in quantitative finance, contributing to the ARPM Lab <https://www.arpm.co/lab/books.php?action=page&id=14>. The successful candidate will work full-time, remotely, constantly communicating via multi-media with the other members of ARPM. The ARPM researcher-in-training position represents a great opportunity for candidates with strong academic background, who wish to apply to real problems in finance the rigorous, research-oriented approach acquired in their schooling. *The progression* ARPM emphasizes the constant intellectual growth of its resources. For the first 6 months the researcher-in- training will be focused on specific projects. At the end of this period (s)he will conduct a presentation on the topics covered. Then, (s)he will start broadening his/her scope, attending the presentations of their peers and seniors, working on broader projects, and acquiring hands-on- knowledge of all the topics of the ARPM Lab <https://www.arpm.co/lab/books.php?action=page&id=14>. The approximate time required to attain the required level of familiarity with the ARPM Lab <https://www.arpm.co/lab/books.php?action=page&id=14> is: two years for a recent master’s graduate; one year for a recent PhD graduate. When ready, the researcher-in-training will be tested on all such topics with an exam. If successful, (s)he will conclude his/her training period, attaining the title of ARPM researcher. The ARPM researcher will then engage in highly quantitative projects with ARPM clients, becoming a profit center. *The candidate* [image: arrow_20]Master’s degree in mathematics, physics, engineering, computer science, statistics, data science, quantitative economics. [image: arrow_20]PhD in hard sciences or master’s degree in quantitative finance is a plus. [image: arrow_20]Very strong command of foundational mathematics, including multivariate calculus and linear algebra. [image: arrow_20]Good knowledge of statistics and probability. [image: arrow_20]Proficiency in MATLAB, Python, or similar programming languages. [image: arrow_20]Good command of English. *Compensation* Competitive For more information, please visit arpm.co <https://www.arpm.co/> and/or contact us at info(a)arpm.co <info(a)arpm.co?Subject=job%20Post> -- *ARPM <http://www.arpm.co/>** - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management**®*

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CONFERENCE IN HONOUR OF ENZO ORSINGHER 23-9-2016
by Luisa Beghin 06 Sep '16

06 Sep '16

Cari tutti, di seguito trovate il programma della Conferenza dedicata a Enzo Orsingher. La partecipazione è gratuita; per motivi organizzativi è necessario compilare il modulo online disponibile al seguente link: https://sites.google.com/site/enzoorsingherconference/ RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN PROBABILITY THEORY AND STOCHASTIC PROCESSES *A CONFERENCE IN HONOUR OF ENZO ORSINGHER* *ON THE OCCASION OF HIS 70TH BIRTHDAY* DEP. STATISTICAL SCIENCES, "SAPIENZA" UNIVERSITY OF ROME AULA II, GROUND FLOOR ROME, SEPTEMBER 23, 2016 *Program * 09:45 Opening 10:00 Aimé Lachal (University of Lyon/ Institute Camille Jordan CNRS) Some distributions on pseudo-Brownian motion and pseudo-random walk 10:25 Fabio Spizzichino ("Sapienza" University of Rome) Special classes of exchangeable occupancy models. Related transformations and related closure properties 10:50 Marina Santacroce (Turin Polytechnic) Forward backward semimartingale systems for utility maximization 11:15 Coffee break 11:35 Nikolai Leonenko (Cardiff University) Fractional Poisson fields and martingales 12:00 Laura Sacerdote (University of Turin) Generalized nonlinear Yule models 12:25 Stefano Iacus (University of Milan) On statistical analysis of the telegraph process and related processes 12:50 Lunch break 15:00 Antonio Di Crescenzo (University of Salerno) Recent advances on the telegraph process 15:25 Mirko D'Ovidio ("Sapienza" University of Rome) Delayed diffusions on random Koch domains 15:50 Elvira Di Nardo (University of Turin) Symbolic calculus in probability and mathematical statistics 16:15 Coffee break 16:35 Federico Polito (University of Turin) The space-fractional Poisson process and extensions 17:00 Personal recollections from Enzo's colleagues and closing Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Cordiali saluti. Luisa Beghin e Alessandro De Gregorio ***************************************************************** Luisa Beghin Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Fac. Ingegneria dell'Informazione, Informatica e Statistica "SAPIENZA" Università di Roma Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Roma T (+39) 06 49910543 F (+39) 06 4959241 http://www.dss.uniroma1.it/?q=content/beghin-luisa *****************************************************************

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seminario di Chaitanya Joshi all'IMATI-Milano
by Antonella Bodini 06 Sep '16

06 Sep '16

Gentili colleghi, domani, *mercoledi' 7 settembre, alle ore 15 *presso la sede di Milano dell'IMATI, via Corti 12 - sala A, *Chaitanya Joshi,* dall'Universita' di Waikato (Hamilton, Nuova Zelanda) terra' il seminario: * * *Improving grid based Bayesian inference* /Abstract/: In some cases, computational benefit can be gained by exploring the hyper parameter space using a deterministic set of grid points instead of a Markov chain. We view this as a numerical integration problem and make three unique contributions. First, we explore the space using low discrepancy point sets instead of a grid. This allows for accurate estimation of marginals of any shape at a much lower computational cost than a grid based approach and thus makes it possible to extend the computational benefit to a hyper parameter space with higher dimensionality (10 or more). Second, we propose a new, quick and easy method to estimate the marginal using a least squares polynomial and prove the conditions under which this polynomial will converge to the true marginal. Our results are valid for a wide range of point sets including grids, random points and low discrepancy points. Third, we show that further accuracy and efficiency can be gained by taking into consideration the functional decomposition of the integrand and illustrate how this can be done using anchored f-ANOVA on weighted spaces. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Cordiali saluti, Antonella -- Dott. Antonella Bodini CNR-Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche Via Bassini 15, 20133 Milano (Italy) *** SI PRENDA NOTA CHE PER LAVORI DI RISTRUTTURAZIONE ATTUALMENTE L'ACCESSO E' DA VIA CORTI 12. *** tel +39 02 23699524 fax +39 02 23699538 http://www.mi.imati.cnr.it/~anto/

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Seminario Christian Olivera a Pisa
by Marta Leocata 02 Sep '16

02 Sep '16

Cari tutti, mercoledì 7 Settembre alle ore 15:00 presso l'Aula Riunioni del Dipartimento di Matematica di Pisa, Dr. Christian Olivera (Univ. Campinas) terrà un seminario dal titolo: "Densities of solutions of SDEs with Singular Coefficients" Abstract: We consider a process given as the solution of a stochastic differential equation with unbounded and integrable drift and multiplicative noise. We study the the existence of the Lebesgue density of that process and upper gaussian estimation. The main tools are the Malliavin calculus and the Zvonkin’s transformation. The work is in collaboration with Ciprian Tudor. Saluti, Marta Leocata

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Phd Position in Stochastic Processes at Universität Paderborn (fwd)
by Michele Gianfelice 02 Sep '16

02 Sep '16

Salve, ricevo ed inoltro l'annuncio informale relativo alla posizione in oggetto. Deadline per inoltrare la domanda è il 16 c.m.. Per ulteriori informazioni contattare il Prof. Martin Kolb scrivendo all'indirizzo kolb(a)math.uni-paderborn.de . Cordialmente, m.gianfelice ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2016 09:47:23 +0200 From: Maria Infusino <infusino.maria(a)gmail.com> To: Michele Gianfelice <gianfelice(a)mat.unical.it> Subject: Phd Position in Stochastic Processes at Universität Paderborn Caro Michele, ....... Il professor Martin Kolb mi ha informato di avere una posizione di 4 anni per un dottorato di ricerca sotto la sua supervisione all' Universität Paderborn (Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter , 75 % , 4 Jahre ). Giacché il campo di ricerca è processi stocastici, ho pensato che probabilmente tu conosci qualcuno che potrebbe avere interesse a fare domanda. La scadenza per fare domanda è il 16 settembre 2016 e l' interessato/a può direttamente contattare Martin via e-mail per ulteriori informazioni al seguente indirizzo : kolb(a)math.uni-paderborn.de Grazie e un abbraccio, Maria

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Seminario Martin Huesmann a Pisa
by Marta Leocata 02 Sep '16

02 Sep '16

Cari tutti, mercoledì 7 Settembre alle ore 14:00 presso l'Aula Riunioni del Dipartimento di Matematica di Pisa, Dr. Martin Huesmann (Univ. Bonn) terrà un seminario dal titolo: "Monotonicity preserving transformations for martingale optimal transport and the Skorokhod embedding problem" Abstract: There are many transformations mapping martingales into martingales,e.g. M_t -> M_t^2- <M>_t$. However, looking at solutions to the martingale optimal transport problem it turns out that there are only very few transformations that map optimal martingale couplings into optimal martingale couplings. After a short introduction to and review of the state of the art of martingale optimal transport we will give a characterization of all these monotonicity preserving transformations. In particular, these transformation reveal certain symmetries between different solutions to the martingale optimal transport problem. Moreover, we will show that the transport approach to Skorokhod embedding is a powerful tool to study martingale optimal transport and, in turn, that the new symmetries for martingale optimal transport disclose symmetries for solutions to the Skorokhod embedding problem. (based on joint work with Florian Stebegg) Saluti, Marta Leocata

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Fwd: Job openings at the Research Center for Statistics (Geneva School of Economics and Management)
by enea giuseppe bongiorno 01 Sep '16

01 Sep '16

Inoltro con preghiera di diffusione. Scusandomi per invii multipli. E.Bongiorno ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Eva Cantoni <Eva.Cantoni(a)unige.ch> Date: 2016-08-31 21:38 GMT+02:00 Subject: Job openings at the Research Center for Statistics (Geneva School of Economics and Management) To: Dear colleagues, (sorry for cross posting) we have an open position at the Assistant professor level in statistics. Please see the ad at: https://www.unige.ch/gsem/rcs/jobs/ May I ask you to distribute the information to potential candidates in your network ? Best wishes, Eva -- Prof. Eva Cantoni Research Center for Statistics and Geneva School of Economics and Management University of Geneva, Bd du Pont d'Arve 40, CH-1211 Genève 4 gsem.unige.ch/rcs/cantoni

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Assegno di ricerca presso la Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa
by Fabrizio Lillo 01 Sep '16

01 Sep '16

The call for a two-year postdoc is open at the Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa (Italy). The topic of the research is Optimal execution and market impact models in financial markets The details of the call are at Italian *http://www.sns.it/bando/assegno-di-ricerca-denominato-%E2%80%9Cesecuzione-ottimale-e-modelli-di-market-impact-mercati-finanziari%E2%80%9D-la-collaborazione-al-progetto <http://www.sns.it/bando/assegno-di-ricerca-denominato-%E2%80%9Cesecuzione-o…>* English *http://en.sns.it/bando/research-contract-named-%E2%80%9Coptimal-execution-and-market-impact-models-financial-markets%E2%80%9D-part <http://en.sns.it/bando/research-contract-named-%E2%80%9Coptimal-execution-a…>* The deadline is September 26. I would be grateful if you could forward this message to any potentially interested candidate. The interested candidates can either contact me (fabrizio.lillo(a)sns.it) or the addresses in the call in case they need further information. Thanks and all the best, Fabrizio Lillo ---------------------------------------- Fabrizio Lillo Scuola Normale Superiore Piazza dei Cavalieri 7 56126 Pisa ITALY New website: fabriziolillo.wordpress.com phone: +39 050509159

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seminario
by Brunero Liseo 31 Aug '16

31 Aug '16

Avviso di Seminario When September 8th 2016, 14:30 Where Sapienza Università di Roma facoltà di Economia Aula Fanfani, V piano Viale del Castro Laurenziano, 9 Speaker *Federico Camerlenghi* Università Luigi Bocconi, Milano Titolo *Distribution theory for hierarchical processes with statistical applications* Abstract In Bayesian nonparametrics, a large amount of literature has been carried out under the assumption that observations are exchangeable. However in a large variety of applications this may appear too restrictive, a typical example is when data are generated by different experiments: even if these experiments may be related, they have some specific features that induce heterogeneity across observations. In such a situation data are usually divided into different groups, and a more appropriate assumption is partial exchangeability. In particular the construction of dependent random probability measures to deal with partially exchangeable observations has recently attracted great attention in Bayesian nonparametric literature. In this talk we define and investigate general classes of nonparametric priors, namely hierarchical models, based on transformations of completely random measures. We are able to study all the analytical properties, i.e. the random partition structure, the predictive distributions and the posterior characterization of the processes. Finally some relevant applications to species sampling problems and survival analysis will be discussed. (This is a joint work with A. Lijoi, P. Orbanz and I. Prunster.) -- ============================================ Brunero Liseo *Dip. di metodi e modelli per il territorio, l'economia e la finanza * *Sapienza Università di Roma* *Viale Castro Laurenziano, 9 Roma I-00161 *Tel. +39 06 49766973 Fax +39 06 4957606 *http://www.memotef.uniroma1.it/users/liseo-brunero <http://www.memotef.uniroma1.it/users/liseo-brunero>* =============================================

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seminario Steven Scott (Google) 2/9 in Bicocca
by fabio.bellini 30 Aug '16

30 Aug '16

Cari colleghi, vi segnalo che il giorno venerdì 2 settembre alle ore 17, presso la Aula Martini al piano interrato dell'edificio U6, Steven Scott, Director of Statistics Research at Google, terrà un seminario su Predicting the Present with Bayesian Structural Time Series This article describes a system for short term forecasting based on an ensemble prediction that averages over different combinations of predictors. The system combines a structural time series model for the target series with regression component capturing the contributions of contemporaneous search query data. A spike-and-slab prior on the regression coefficients induces sparsity, dramatically reducing the size of the regression problem. Our system averages over potential contributions from a very large set of models and gives easily digested reports of which coefficients are likely to be important. We illustrate with applications to initial claims for unemployment benefits and to retail sales. Although our exposition focuses on using search engine data to forecast economic time series, the underlying statistical methods can be applied to more general short term forecasting with large numbers of contemporaneous predictors (joint work with Hal Varian). L'evento è organizzato in collaborazione con Innovation Pub e sarà seguito da un piccolo rinfresco. Sarà inoltre possibile seguire lo streaming su http://streaming.unimib.it/.

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Third StaTalk on Computational Tools for Statistical Modelling.
by Clara Grazian 29 Aug '16

29 Aug '16

Dear all, we are pleased to announce that the third meeting of the *StaTalk* series will be held at *Facoltà di Economia di Sapienza Università di Roma *on *September 9, 2016*. StaTalks are one-day workshops on statistical topics during which the hosting group introduces and overviews the main research interests of their members. Aimed at Master’s and PhD students, as well as at post-docs and young researchers, StaTalks are intended to be informal gatherings which allow for a more proficient interaction between presenters and participants. They typically feature some introductory tutorials on the main workshop theme and a few seminars that overview more advanced research topics, still kept at an expository level. StaTalks are thus a great opportunity to become acquainted with the workshop main topic, as well as to share and update one's knowledge on the interface of Statistical research in an easy and informal atmosphere. StaTalks are endorsed by Y-SIS ( https://sites.google.com/site/youngsocietaitalianastatistica/), the young section of the Italian Statistical Society. The topic of the third StaTalk will be on *Computational Tools for Statistical Modelling*. We will present and discuss both standard and new computational methods which represents fundamental tools for new challenging applications, such as economic, finance, genetic and official statistics. *Programme* *09.30-10.00 *Opening *10.00-10.40 *Christian Macaro (SAS System) "*A mixture of heterogeneous models with time dependent weights*" *10.40-11.10* Coffee break *11.10-11.50* Clara Grazian (MEMOTEF Department) "*Modelling financial dependence through approximate Bayesian inference*" *11.50-12.30* Stefano Vaccari (MEMOTEF Department) "*Pricing in the Presence of Social Learning: Modelling Information Aggregation in a Competitive Market*" *12.30-14.30* Lunch break *14.30-15.10 *Andrea Tancredi (MEMOTEF Department) "*A Bayesian approach for de-duplication, record linkage and inference with linked data.*" *15.10-15.50 *Luca Tardella (Department of Statistical Science) "*Alternative approaches for approximating marginal likelihood.*" *15.50-16.30* Davide Di Cecco (ISTAT) "*Towards the use of administrative sources in official statistics: Some examples of methodologies for administrative multi source integration utilized at ISTAT.*" *16.30-17.00 *Closing Additional info can be found at the workshop page https://sites.google.com/site/youngsocietaitalianastatistica/events/statalk… or by writing to clara.grazian(a)uniroma1.it. REGISTRATION to the third StaTalk is now open. *No conference fees are due, but registration is mandatory*, using the form available on the website. Clara Grazian PhD in Statistics Research Fellow *Memotef* *Facoltà di Economia* *Sapienza Università di Roma* via del Castro Laurenziano 9, 00161, Roma

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Padova: call for interest for two positions at the level of Associate Professor
by Tiziano Vargiolu 25 Aug '16

25 Aug '16

Call for interest for two positions at the level of Associate Professor ============================================================= The Department of Mathematics of the University of Padova is seeking to fill two positions at the level of Associate Professor through direct appointment (Italian "chiamata diretta") or open competitive selection (Italian "concorso"). The call is open to scientists working in Mathematics or Computer Science. Candidates must be in possession of the Italian Scientific Qualification as Associate Professor ("abilitazione scientifica nazionale di seconda fascia") or hold a position equivalent to that of Italian Associate Professor at a foreign University or Research Institute. Candidates are asked to submit (at direzione(a)math.unipd.it) their CV and a letter of interest by 5th September 2016. Prospective candidates will be invited to the Department of Mathematics for a seminar talk and discussion with members of the Department. The Department plans to decide by the end of October 2016 whether to proceed with direct appointment or open competitive selection. In the case of open competitive selection a choice of the area (Italian "settore concorsuale) will be made and the selection is expected to take place in the first half of 2017. Tiziano -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tiziano Vargiolu Dipartimento di Matematica Phone: +39 049 8271383 Universita' di Padova Fax: +39 049 8271428 Via Trieste, 63 E-mail: vargiolu(a)math.unipd.it I-35121 Padova (Italy) WWW: http://www.math.unipd.it/~vargiolu -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2016 09:00:28 +0200 From: Marco Ferrante <ferrante(a)math.unipd.it> To: afferenti(a)math.unipd.it Subject: Call per PA di settembre Cari colleghi, nelle news di dipartimento con link http://www.math.unipd.it/it/news/?id=1894 abbiamo inserito la call in inglese presentata all'ultimo CdD per le due posizioni da PA che valuteremo a settembre. Vi invito a segnalarla ai colleghi che voleste contattare Marco -- Prof. Marco Ferrante Dipartimento di Matematica Universit? degli Studi di Padova Via Trieste 63 , I-35121 Padova - ITALY Tel: +39-0498271366 Fax: +39-0498271499 E-Mail: ferrante(a)math.unipd.it URL: http://www.math.unipd.it/~ferrante

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