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Avviso di seminario :: Farcomeni@DSS (Scienze Statistiche, Sapienza)
by Pierpaolo Brutti 13 Jan '14

13 Jan '14

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- A v v i s o d i S e m i n a r i o ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Venerdì 17 Gennaio, ore 11am ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stanza 34 Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Sapienza Università di Roma ALESSIO FARCOMENI (Dip. Sanità Pubblica e Malattie Infettive, Sapienza Università di Roma) terrà un seminario dal titolo GENERALIZED LINEAR MIXED MODELS BASED ON LATENT MARKOV HETEROGENEITY STRUCTURES tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maggiori informazioni sui seminari presso il DSS sono consultabili a quest'indirizzo: http://goo.gl/Y6OQYm Saluti Pierpaolo Brutti - Fulvio De Santis --- Summary Latent Markov models (LM) can be seen as a flexible device for taking into account time-varying subject-specific unobserved heterogeneity. In the basic LM, a random intercept is flexibly allowed to evolve over time. The available formulations of mixed LM often assume that any additional random effect is time-constant, with few specific exceptions. In this work we formulate a mixed latent Markov model in which all random effects may freely evolve over time. The size of the parameter space is controlled with the possibilities of assuming block independence of random effects, and/or that groups of random effects may share some or all aspects of their distribution. Parameter estimation is carried out with a simple expectation maximization strategy, analogous to that used for the basic latent Markov model, after an adaptation of the usual forward backward recursions and a parsimonious representation of the expected complete likelihood. Standard errors are derived using Oakes' identity. Dependence among random effects is summarized using Watanabe's total correlation and described with log-odds ratios and higher-order log-linear interactions. We illustrate with an original application to the relationship between health literacy and depression in a panel of adolescents. In this example subjects are clustered in schools, which leads to high-dimensional multivariate time-varying random effects.

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Avviso di seminario - Dott. D'Ovidio
by Federico Polito 09 Jan '14

09 Jan '14

****************************************************** SEMINARI DI PROBABILITA' E STATISTICA DIPARTIMENTO DI MATEMATICA G. PEANO UNIVERSITA' DEGLI STUDI DI TORINO ****************************************************** Venerdì 17 Gennaio alle ore 15 in Aula C presso il Dipartimento di Matematica "G. Peano" dell'Università degli Studi di Torino, Via Carlo Alberto 10, il Dott. MIRKO D'OVIDIO ("Sapienza" Università di Roma) terrà un seminario dal titolo FRACTIONAL CAUCHY PROBLEMS ON S^2_1 AND COORDINATES CHANGED RANDOM FIELDS In allegato l'abstract del seminario. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Federico Polito -- Department of Mathematics University of Torino Via Carlo Alberto, 10 10123, Torino, Italy federico.polito(a)unito.it phone: +39 011 6702937

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Avviso di seminario :: Karachanskaya@DSS (Scienze Statistiche, Sapienza)
by Pierpaolo Brutti 09 Jan '14

09 Jan '14

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- A v v i s o d i S e m i n a r i o ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Martedì 14 Gennaio, ore 10:30am ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stanza 34 Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Sapienza Università di Roma ELENA KARACHANSKAYA (Pacific National University, Khabarovsk) terrà un seminario dal titolo THE INVARIANT METHOD IN THE THEORY OF STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS AND ITS APPLICATIONS FOR THE CONTROL PROGRAM PROBLEMS tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maggiori informazioni sui seminari presso il DSS sono consultabili a quest'indirizzo: http://goo.gl/Y6OQYm Pierpaolo Brutti --- Summary We consider two types of invariants (geometric and integral), which are connected with the theory of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The geometric invariants are the fixed length of a random chain and the constant radius of a sphere, which is the surface for random walks (for example, in the case of a turning diffusion). The integral invariants are represented as integrals of kernel functions of integral invariants on the whole space. These kernel functions are solutions of SDEs, which were obtained and discussed. Furthermore, kernel functions will be used for deriving the first global stochastic integral, for constructing the program control (with probability one) for stochastic dynamical systems on deterministic manifold based on Brownian motion with Poisson jumps, and for obtaining the Kolmogorov equations.

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secondo annuncio: mini corso del Prof. Gentil a Pavia
by Carbone Raffaella 09 Jan '14

09 Jan '14

Cari colleghi, vi ricordiamo che il prof. Ivan Gentil (Université Lyon 1) terrà, presso il Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Università di Pavia, un mini-corso dal titolo The Bakry-Emery condition applied to the functional inequality and contraction in Wasserstein distance Abstract : During the lessons we would like to introduce the Bakry-Emery condition in the Euclidean space R^n and also in a Riemannian manifold. First we study the two classical examples: the Euclidean Heat semigroup and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck semigroup. Then we define the general setting: a Markov semigroup associated to the Gamma and the Gamma-2 operators. Under the Bakry-Emery condition we obtain coercive inequalities which implies for instance functional inequality such as Poincaré or logarithmic-Sobolev inequalities. The last part of the course is devoted to the contraction in wasserstein distance under the Bakry-Emery condition. Orario (provvisorio): ore 11-13 nei giorni 14, 15, 17, 20, 22, 24 gennaio 2014.

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de Finetti Risk seminar - gennaio 2014
by Emanuela Rosazza Gianin 08 Jan '14

08 Jan '14

On behalf of the Scientific Committee of the de Finetti Risk Seminars, we are glad to invite you to participate at the following Lecture PREFERENCE TO DIVERSIFICATION: DIFFERENT BUT INTRICATE DIMENSIONS OF UNCERTAINTY AVERSION Samuel Drapeau ABSTRACT We study the preferences of agents for diversification and better outcomes when they are facing both, in Frank Knight's formulation, measurable as well as unmeasurable uncertainty. Following Anscombe and Aumann, such a situation can be modeled by preferences expressed on stochastic kernels, that is scenario dependent lotteries. By means of automatic continuity methods based on Banach-Dieudonné's Theorem on Fréchet spaces, we provide a robust representation. This gives us some insight into the nature of uncertainty aversion these preferences are expressing. We further investigate under which conditions these two intricate dimensions of uncertainty can be disentangle into a distributional uncertainty, in the direction of von Neumann and Morgenstern's theory, and a probability model uncertainty, in the spirit of risk measures. These results allow in particular to address both Allais as well as Elsberg's paradox. LOCATION: The seminar will be held on Wednesday, 15 January, at 18.00 at Aula di Rappresentanza, Department of Mathematics, Milano University, Via Saldini 50, Milano. A refreshment will be offered at 17.30. Scientific Committee: Prof. Marco Frittelli (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) Prof. Fabio Maccheroni (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Massimo Marinacci (Univ. Bocconi) Prof. Emanuela Rosazza Gianin (Univ. Milano-Bicocca) Dott. Simone Cerreia-Voglio (Univ. Bocconi) Dott. Marco Maggis (Univ. degli Studi di Milano) ******************************************************************************************* Emanuela Rosazza Gianin Dipartimento di Statistica e Metodi Quantitativi Università di Milano Bicocca Edificio U7 - 4° Piano Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8 20126 Milano Tel. 02 64483208 Fax. 02 64483105 e-mail: emanuela.rosazza1(a)unimib.it *******************************************************************************************

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Reminder IWFOS 2014
by Aldo Goia 07 Jan '14

07 Jan '14

*Call for Papers - Reminder* *3rd International Workshop on* *Functional and Operatorial Statistics* Stresa (Italy) – June 19 – 21, 2014 Web-Site: http://iwfos2014.unipmn.it Apologies for cross-posting. Dear Colleagues, Dear Friends, We wish to remind the deadlines for submitting an extended abstract for the 3rd International Workshop on Functional and Operatorial Statistics. *January 15, 2014* Submission deadline. *March 31, 2014* Notification of Acceptance. *April 15, 2014 * Revised submission deadline. We welcome proposals addressing “infinite dimensional statistical problems or methods” with special emphasis on: · Statistical modelling for functional variables · Functional Data Analysis · Operator-based Statistics · Background for Statistics in Infinite-Dimensional spaces · High-Dimensional Statistics · Machine Learning *PROCEEDINGS* A book of proceedings (published with ISBN by Società Editrice Esculapio) will be given at each participant. *SPECIAL ISSUE* Best new advances on the prioritized areas of the meeting could be submitted to the Special Issue *Statistical models and methods for high or infinite dimensional spaces* on* Journal of Multivariate Analysis*. A full reviewing process according the standards of JMVA will be made. For further information visit: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-multivariate-analysis/call-for-… *CONTACTS* Dipartimento di Studi per l’Economia e l’Impresa (Di.S.E.I.) Università del Piemonte Orientale Via Perrone, 18 – 28100 Novara (Italy) fax: +39 0321 375305 - e-mail: iwfos2014(a)unipmn.it web-site: http://iwfos2014.unipmn.it Thank you for your attention, Hoping see you in Stresa, Sincerely Yours, On behalf of the organizers, Aldo Goia Ernesto Salinelli Philippe Vieu ======================================================= IWFOS.2014 Secretary Dipartimento di Studi per l'Economia e l'Impresa Università del Piemonte Orientale Via Perrone, 18 - 28100 Novara (Italy) iwfos2014(a)unipmn.it

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GSSI Colloqium in Probability]
by davide gabrielli 07 Jan '14

07 Jan '14

---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: errico presutti <errico.presutti(a)gmail.com> Date: 2014/1/6 Subject: francis Comets *GSSI Colloquia in Probability* The series will start with a conference held by *Prof. F. Comets* (Paris VII) who will talk on: ``*An overview of directed polymers in random environment'*' on Thursday January 9 at 16.00 in the Aula Magna of GSSI (Gran Sasso Science Institute, L'Aquila) -- This message has been scanned for viruses and dangerous content by MailScanner, and is believed to be clean.

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Seminario Prof.ssa Youngna Choi @ SNS Pisa
by Giacomo BORMETTI 07 Jan '14

07 Jan '14

Buongiorno a tutti, vi segnalo il seminario della Prof.ssa Youngna Choi della Montclair State University che si terrà a Pisa presso la Scuola Normale Superiore il prossimo 9 Gennaio alle ore 13:00 in Aula Bianchi. Seguono titolo e abstract. Titolo: Financial Instability Contagion: a Dynamical Systems Approach Abstract: We build a multi-agent dynamical system for the global economy to investigate and analyze financial crises. The agents are large aggregates of a subeconomy, and the global economy is a collection of subeconomies. We use well-known theories of dynamical systems to represent a financial crisis as propagation of a negative shock on wealth due the breakage of a financial equilibrium. We first extend the framework of the market instability indicator, an early warning signal defined for a single economy as the spectral radius of the Jacobian matrix of the wealth dynamical system. Then, we formulate a quantitative definition of instability contagion in terms thereof. Finally, we analyze the mechanism of instability contagion for both single and multiple economies. Our contribution is to provide a methodology to quantify and monitor the level of instability in sectors and stages of a structured global economic model and how it may propagate between its components. Tutti gli interessati sono cordialmente invitati.

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LEZIONE INAUGURALE XXIX CICLO DELLA FORMAZIONE DOTTORALE
by Julia Mortera 06 Jan '14

06 Jan '14

Dottorato in "Economia e Metodi Quantitativi" giovedì 9 gennaio 2014, ore 15.00-18.00 Sala delle lauree, Dipartimento di Economia, Università degli Studi Roma Tre Via Silvio D'Amico 77, 00145 Roma */LEZIONE INAUGURALE XXIX CICLO DELLA FORMAZIONE DOTTORALE/* ore 14.45: Caffè di benvenuto ore 15.00: Saluti e introduzione *Silvia Terzi*- Direttore Dipartimento di Economia *Julia Mortera*-- Dipartimento di Economia ore 15.30:Lezione inaugurale** *Søren Johansen *-- Professor of Econometrics, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen /Cointegration in the vector autoregressive model/^ ore 16.30:Discussion ore 17:15:Coffee Break ore 17:30*Katarina Juselius *--Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen /Challenges for Macroeconomic Theory/ ore 18:00//Discussion *Abstracts* // /*Cointegration in the vector autoregressive model*/ An overview of results for the cointegrated VAR model for nonstationary I(1) variables is given. The emphasis is on the analysis of the model and the tools for asymptotic inference. The results are illustrated by a few examples. A number of extensions of the theory are pointed out.// */Challenges for Macroeconomic Theory/* Standard macroeconomic models were not able to foresee our recent crisis nor have they been very useful for guiding us out of the subsequent long recession. Most of the economics profession has, therefore, acknowledged the need for a new research vision in macroeconomics and macrofinance. This talk discusses a number of challenges and argues that we need theoretical models that can capture the full dynamics of financial market behavior and its interrelatedness with the real economy as well as empirical models that can take such models to the data without compromising high scientific standards. How to combine these two goals is the subject of the talk. -- Prof.ssa Julia Mortera Dipartimento di Economia Università Roma Tre Via Silvio D'Amico 77 00145 Roma Tel: +39 06 57335732 Fax: +39 06 57335771 http://dipeco.uniroma3.it/docenti.asp?id=123# --- Questa e-mail è priva di virus e malware perché è attiva la protezione avast! Antivirus. http://www.avast.com

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3rd Carlo Alberto Stochastics Workshop - Program
by Matteo Ruggiero 24 Dec '13

24 Dec '13

***************************************************************** WORKSHOP - COLLEGIO CARLO ALBERTO ***************************************************************** The "de Castro" Statistics Initiative (http://www.carloalberto.org/stats) is pleased to announce that the program for the 3rd CARLO ALBERTO STOCHASTICS WORKSHOP: ALGEBRAIC STATISTICS II is now available. The details about oral and poster presentations can be consulted at the page http://www.carloalberto.org/research/statistics-initiative/events/3rd-carlo… The workshop aims at presenting some of the latest advances on Algebraic Statistics, and will be held on January 10-11, 2014 at Collegio Carlo Alberto, Moncalieri. Best regards and happy holidays, Matteo Ruggiero --------- Matteo Ruggiero University of Torino & Collegio Carlo Alberto http://web.econ.unito.it/ruggiero

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Fwd: [ccfz] Lectureship in Financial Mathematics at DCU (fwd)
by Tiziano Vargiolu 23 Dec '13

23 Dec '13

----- Forwarded message from paolo.guasoni(a)dcu.ie ----- Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2013 15:31:32 +0000 From: Paolo Guasoni <paolo.guasoni(a)dcu.ie> Subject: [ccfz] Lectureship in Financial Mathematics at DCU To: st-net(a)mailbox.tu-dresden.de, Random Random <random(a)webmail.mate.polimi.it>, siam-fme <siam-fme(a)siam.org>, stoch-ned(a)lists.imstat.org, ccfz(a)lists.math.ethz.ch, fps(a)lists.imstat.org Dear Colleague, Dublin City University has a Lecturer vacancy in Financial Mathematics: http://www4.dcu.ie/hr/vacancies/current.shtml Please draw this to the attention of potential candidates. The closing date for applications is January 12th. With best wishes of Happy Holidays, Paolo Guasoni -- *Email Disclaimer"This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and are intended solely for use by the addressee. Any unauthorised dissemination, distribution or copying of this message and any attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please notify the sender and delete the message. Any views or opinions presented in this e-mail may solely be the views of the author and cannot be relied upon as being those of Dublin City University. E-mail communications such as this cannot be guaranteed to be virus-free, timely, secure or error-free and Dublin City University does not accept liability for any such matters or their consequences. Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail."S?anadh R?omhphoist"T? an r?omhphost seo agus aon chomhad a sheoltar leis faoi r?n agus is lena ?s?id ag an seola? agus sin amh?in ?. T? cosc ioml?n ar scaipeadh, dh?ileadh n? ch?ipe?il neamh?daraithe ar an teachtaireacht seo agus ar aon cheangalt?n at? ag dul leis. M? t? an r?omhphost seo faighte agat tr? dhearmad cuir sin in i?l le do thoil don seolt?ir agus scrios an teachtaireacht. D?fh?adfadh s? gurb iad tuairim? an ?dair agus sin amh?in at? in aon tuairim? no dearctha? at? curtha i l?thair sa r?omhphost seo agus n?or ch?ir glacadh leo mar thuairim? n? dhearctha? Ollscoil Chathair Bhaile ?tha Cliath. N? ghlactar leis go bhfuil cumars?id r?omhphoist den s?rt seo saor ? v?reas, in am, sl?n, n? saor ? earr?id agus n? ghlacann Ollscoil Chathair Bhaile ?tha Cliath le dliteanas in aon ch?s den s?rt sin n? as aon iarmhairt a d?eascr?dh astu. Cuimhnigh ar an timpeallacht le do thoil sula gcuireann t? an r?omhphost seo i gcl?."* ----- End forwarded message ----- ---------------------------------------------------------------- This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.

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Public competition Ricercatore a tempo determinato tipo B - settore 13/D1 Statistica
by Patrizia Piacentini 20 Dec '13

20 Dec '13

Public competition for the recruitment of 1 fixed term researcher position in Statistics, with a three-year, full-time non renewable contract, as by the art. 24, comma 3, letter b of the Law 30 December 2010, n. 240 Department of Statistical Sciences University Selection Group 13/D1- Statistics, profile: ssd SECS-S/01 Statistics and ssd SECS-S/02 Statistics for experimental and technological research Requirements: The Department of Statistical Sciences of the University of Padova invites candidates active in the area of Statistics to apply for a tenure-track position at the assistant professor level. The post is for a three-year period, non-renewable. The research activity will concern statistical models and methods for dealing with large and complex data sets. It will focus in particular on methods for the analysis of multivariate and longitudinal data from biological and technological research questions. Practical implementation of the methods and development of the necessary software will also be required. The total teaching duties, including lectures, tutorials, student training, exams, etc, amount to 350 hours per year. A maximum of 80 hours of classroom teaching will be required. Maximum number of publications to be presented: 12 (twelve), including doctoral thesis if presented. Foreign language which will be subject to assessment at the oral examination: English. The candidate may request to carry out the discussion of qualifications and publications in English. Foreign applicants must demonstrate a good level of Italian proficiency. Applications can ONLY be submitted following the procedure in the announcement (in Italian), see http://www.unipd.it/procedure-concorsuali-ricercatori-di-tipo-b

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Mathematical modelling in mining industry (fwd)
by Tiziano Vargiolu 19 Dec '13

19 Dec '13

---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 23:09:40 +1100 From: Juri Hinz <Juri.Hinz(a)uts.edu.au> To: "vargiolu(a)math.unipd.it" <vargiolu(a)math.unipd.it> Subject: Mathematical modelling in mining industry Dear Tiziano, could you please help distributing this advertisement? Thank you very much! Best wishes, Juri ------------------------------- Associate Professor Juri Hinz University of Technology Sydney PO Box 123, Broadway NSW 2007 Australia Phone: 9514 2252 Room: CB01.1550 Fax: +61 2 95142260 Email: juri.hinz(a)uts.edu.au ______________________________ Mathematical modelling in mining industry The UTS School of Mathematical Sciences and CSIRO Computational Informatics are seeking a PhD student to undertake research on optimisation in planning and management of minerals extraction and processing under uncertainty. The successful applicant will be awarded a highly competitive $30,000 per annum scholarship plus access to the unique doctoral training program under the auspices of the Industry Doctoral Training Centre in Mathematics and Statistics (visit http://www.gradschool.uts.edu.au/atn/ for more information). Australia has the world?s largest reserves of mineral sands, brown coal, nickel, lead, silver, uranium, iron ore, zinc and other minerals. Australia is ideally positioned within Asia?Pacific, the fastest growing region in the world. Unprecedented demand for commodities from the region has driven high levels of investment in minerals exploration and project developments. Australia?s abundant mineral resources, advanced mining equipment, technology and services industry, and proximity to the rapidly growing markets, have made it a world leading mining nation. The challenges of modern mining industry include a need for sophisticated technologies to extract minerals from low?grade ores, managing labour cost and increasingly focus on environmental sustainability. The costs associated with processing technologies must account for high level of uncertainty resulting from market conditions and ore quality. These risk factors have a significant impact on the profitability of mining projects, whose optimization focuses on correct choice of both, the operating policy and long?term strategic decisions. In this framework, optimising investments and decision?making are challenging and interesting stochastic control problems. This project focuses on mathematical models and efficient methods for numerical treatment of control problems arising in the decision?making process in the minerals industry. On practical side, these models and methods are of crucial importance for individual policy optimization. On the theoretical side, this research offers a unique opportunity to break in into a highly interesting, versatile and active area of modern mathematics, where practical questions challenge cutting?edge theoretical approaches. Being placed between real option theory, quantitative risk management, and Markov decision theory, the potential impact of this work is substantial and can position the student extremely well, beyond the award of a PhD degree. The quantitative known?how in these field provides an ideal starting point for both a future work in the financial industry, consultancies, minerals business and/or a career in academia. This PhD research project is a collaborative arrangement between UTS and CSIRO and will be supervised by A/Professor Juri Hinz (UTS) and Dr Tanya Tarnopolskaya (CSIRO). Selection Criteria 1. First class honours or equivalent in mathematics or other relevant discipline. 2. Demonstrated academic ability in statistics, stochastic processes and model implementation. 3. Sound knowledge of computer languages, at least one from C++, R, Mat lab, Python, Java How to apply Please send an email to both supervisors: Juri.Hinz(a)uts.edu.au Tanya.Tarnopolskaya(a)csiro.au ------------------------------- UTS CRICOS Provider Code: 00099F DISCLAIMER: This email message and any accompanying attachments may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, do not read, use, disseminate, distribute or copy this message or attachments. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete this message. Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, except where the sender expressly, and with authority, states them to be the views of the University of Technology Sydney. Before opening any attachments, please check them for viruses and defects. Think. Green. Do. Please consider the environment before printing this email.

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mini corso prof. Ivan Gentil a Pavia
by Carbone Raffaella 19 Dec '13

19 Dec '13

Cari colleghi, vi annunciamo che il prof. Ivan Gentil (Université Lyon 1) terrà, presso il Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Università di Pavia un mini-corso dal titolo The Bakry-Emery condition applied to the functional inequality and contraction in Wasserstein distance Abstract : During the lessons we would like to introduce the Bakry-Emery condition in the Euclidean space R^n and also in a Riemannian manifold. First we study the two classical examples: the Euclidean Heat semigroup and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck semigroup. Then we define the general setting: a Markov semigroup associated to the Gamma and the Gamma-2 operators. Under the Bakry-Emery condition we obtain coercive inequalities which implies for instance functional inequality such as Poincaré or logarithmic-Sobolev inequalities. The last part of the course is devoted to the contraction in wasserstein distance under the Bakry-Emery condition. Orario (provvisorio): ore 11-13 nei giorni 14, 15, 17, 20, 22, 24 gennaio 2014. -- Raffaella Carbone, PhD Ricercatore di Probabilità e Statistica Matematica Dipartimento di Matematica dell'Università degli Studi di Pavia

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[Fwd: BCAM International call for researchers]
by Tiziano Vargiolu 19 Dec '13

19 Dec '13

Tiziano -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tiziano Vargiolu Dipartimento di Matematica Phone: +39 049 8271383 Universita' di Padova Fax: +39 049 8271428 Via Trieste, 63 E-mail: vargiolu(a)math.unipd.it I-35121 Padova (Italy) WWW: http://www.math.unipd.it/~vargiolu --------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Biometrical Journal, Special Issue on "Models for continuous data with a spike at zero"
by Pierpaolo Brutti 16 Dec '13

16 Dec '13

...ricevo e inoltro... ### APOLOGIES FOR CROSS_POSTING #### The Biometrical Journal is a leading journal in biometry. It is calling for papers for a special issue on "Models for continuous data with a spike at zero". Zero-inflation models for count data have a long history and a huge amount of published research exists to the topic. In fact, the Biometrical Journal has contributed numerous papers to this area since zero-inflated count data are a prominent problem in the life-sciences. See, for example, the September 2013 issue of the Biometrical Journal. In this call, we would like to draw the attention of the research community to another prominent problem in the life sciences: continuous data with a spike at zero. The extra-zeros can arise out of many reasons and it is not necessarily clear how they could be handled. A frequent problem is the occurrence of data below a limit of detection (LOD). In these cases, it might be reasonable to treat them as left-censored. A further modeling alternative could be that of employing so called two-step models, where at the first stage a binary variable describes whether or not the observed value is above the limit of detection while, at the second stage, a continuous variable is used to describe positive measurements. In other cases, it is less clear how to approach the problem. For example, consider the consumption of alcohol measured on a continuous scale. Then, there is a spike at zero representing the non-drinkers. The zeros are neither left-censored nor interval-censored. Here, there are at least two problems involved. For one, the quantity of interest is bounded below, and for two, the zeros create a single mass distribution. A further empirical application where extra-zeros may arise is when modeling length of stay in hospital admissions. This is frequently modeled following a count data approach, although the underlying quantity is continuous. In length-of-stay situations, day surgery patients may be classified as having a null length of stay but, for administrative purposes, it could be necessary for them to be considered together with in-hospital patients whose length of stay is positive. Hence, we have a continuous quantity bounded below by zero and a spike at zero. In a regression context, we also think that these spikes could occur on the left-hand side of a regression equation as well as on the right-hand side, i.e. for the dependent (outcome) and the independent (predictor) variables With this call for submissions we are looking for novel contributions presenting • authentic continuous data with excess-zeros • novel statistical approaches to handle these issues. • up-to-date case studies which address the above issues and are of interest for the biometric community. . Authors, who are not sure whether their problems and ideas fall under the call or not, may approach the Editors with an initial draft of the paper. All submitted papers under this call will undergo the standard review process of the journal. The deadline for papers for this call is May 31, 2014. The special issue is handled through the website of the Biometrical Journal and is handled as any other paper submitted to the journal except that the editing and the review process is handled by the Special Issue Editors Dankmar Böhning and Marco Alfó. Please submit your manuscript at is http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/biomj To submit to the special issue login at MC (manuscript central), indicate at Step 1 that the submission is to a special issue and at Step 4 of the submission process enter "ZERO I" in the Special Issue Information field. Submitted manuscripts should comply with the instructions for authors of Biometrical Journal which you find on the Biometrical Journal homepage using the link to the Author Guidelines.

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Fwd: Fwd: [dynlist]--CRM-PISA Junior Visiting Program (fwd)
by Tiziano Vargiolu 13 Dec '13

13 Dec '13

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Re: [Random] probability hiring (fwd)
by Tiziano Vargiolu 13 Dec '13

13 Dec '13

---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 18:58:19 -0500 From: Alberto Bressan <bressan(a)math.psu.edu> ============================================================================== Subject to availability of funding, the Penn State Mathematics Department will seek to fill openings for S. Chowla Research Assistant Professors and for tenure and tenure track faculty positions. Tenure or Tenure Track Faculty Position Candidates from all areas of mathematics will be considered. There may be up to three positions in the area of Probability. A Ph.D. degree or its equivalent is required. Online application via www.mathjobs.org is strongly preferred. Review of applications will begin November 15, 2013 and will continue until positions are filled. Required application materials include: --Online application --At least three reference letters, one of which should address in detail the candidate's abilities as a teacher --Curriculum Vitae --Publication List --Research Statement --Teaching Statement Persons who are unable to apply using the mathjobs.org website or who do not wish to do so may send application materials to: Search Committee Department of Mathematics Penn State University 107 McAllister Building University Park, PA 16802 We encourage applications from individuals of diverse backgrounds. Penn State is committed to affirmative action, equal opportunity, and the diversity of its workforce. =============================================================================

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Seminario KLEIJN
by Matteo Ruggiero 13 Dec '13

13 Dec '13

**************************************************************** STATISTICS SEMINARS - COLLEGIO CARLO ALBERTO **************************************************************** Venerdi' 20 dicembre 2013 alle ore 12:00, presso la sala rossa del Collegio Carlo Alberto, Moncalieri (TO), si terra' il seguente seminario: Bas KLEIJN (University of Amsterdam) TESTABILITY AND CONSISTENCY Abstract: Bayesian consistency theorems come in (at least) three distinct types, e.g. Doob's prior-almost-sure consistency on Polish spaces, Schwartz's Hellinger consistency with KL-priors and the `tailfree' weak consistency of Dirichlet posteriors. In this talk we ask the question how these notions of convergence are related and argue that one characterises them most conveniently using test sequences. We investigate the differences between uniform, point-wise and almost-sure testing, prove Doob-type posterior consistency theorems in various model topologies and consider hypothesis testing problems like Cover's rational mean problem (Cover, 1973). To achieve frequentist posterior consistency, we combine almost-sure tests with a prior condition that generalises Schwartz's KL-condition and is conjectured also to accomodate `tailfree' behaviour like that of Dirichlet posteriors. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Il seminario e' organizzato dalla "de Castro" Statistics Initiative (http://www.carloalberto.org/stats) in collaborazione con il Collegio Carlo Alberto. Cordiali saluti, Matteo Ruggiero --------- Matteo Ruggiero University of Torino & Collegio Carlo Alberto http://web.econ.unito.it/ruggiero

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Modifica orario- Seminario F. Martinelli
by alessandra bianchi 10 Dec '13

10 Dec '13

Martedi' 17 dicembre 2013 alle ore 16 presso l'aula 1BC50 del Dipartimento di Matematica di Padova il Prof. Fabio Martinelli (Dip. di Matematica, Universita' di Roma Tre) terra' il seguente seminario Title: Time scales separation and dynamical heterogeneities in the East model. Abstract: The East model is a finite linear Markov chain of 0-1 spins, evolving according to a very simple rule: i) with rate 1 and independently for each vertex, a new value 1/0 is proposed with probability 1-q and q respectively; ii) the proposed value is accepted iff the spin immediately to the left is 0. The model and its generalizations play an important role as models of the dynamics of real glasses. The parameter q, which turns out to be the density of the zeros (the facilitating spins) in the stationary measure, is assumed to be very small. In the physical literature this setting corresponds to a low temperature case. We will examine the problem of dynamic heterogeneity, i.e. non-trivial spatio-temporal fluctuations of the local relaxation to equilibrium. A key result will be a very precise computation of the relaxation time of the chain as a function of q and of its length, which uses induction on length scales on one hand and a novel algorithmic lower bound on the other. Our findings reject non rigorous approaches based on numerical simulations. We will conclude with a conjecture due to D. Aldous and P. Diaconis about the scaling limit of the East chain as q-->0. Joint work with A. Faggionato and P. Chleboun -- Alessandra Bianchi Dip. di Matematica Pura e Applicata Università di Padova Via Trieste, 63 - 35121 Padova, Italy phone: +39 049 827 14 06 fax: +39 049 827 14 28 e-mail: bianchi(a)math.unipd.it http://www.math.unipd.it/~bianchi/

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Post-Doc position in Modena
by Cristian Giardina 10 Dec '13

10 Dec '13

*---------------------------------------------------------* *1 Post-doctoral fellowship for 2014-2015* Announcement: The University of Modena and Reggio Emilia has an open call for 1 Post-doctoral position (1+1 year) funded by the Italian Ministry of Education and Research in the framework of the FIRB project “Stochastic processes in interacting particle systems: duality, metastability and applications” (www.stochastics.unimore.it/firb) Short description: The candidate is expected to work on interacting particle systems, with emphasis on non-equilibrium processes and population dynamics, including their algorithmic aspects. Specific research topics include Markov stochastic processes (both diffusions and jump processes) and large deviations theory. The aim is to develop probabilistic tools, such as duality theory, for the analysis of stochastic processes in the context of mathematical population genetics and its applications to importance sampling algorithms with cloning. Job requirements: - Early stage researcher with background in mathematical physics, probability, statistical mechanics; - PhD in Mathematics or PhD in Physics (obtained or soon to be obtained); - shaped scientific personality, independent thinker; - author of recent publications on peer-reviewed international journals; - strong theoretical background but also an interest in application-oriented research. Salary: 27.429 euros (gross) per year. Application: The deadline for application is January 7th, 2014 and the position has to start before February 28th, 2014. Interested candidates can contact Prof. Cristian Giardina’ (cristian.giardina(a)unimore.it, +39 338 6115896). They are welcome to ask questions when filling in the application form. Please also include in your application the contact information of two researchers who are acquainted with your previous work. The call (english version) is available at: http://www.ufficioselezioneassunzione.unimore.it/site/home/assegni-di-ricer… The call (italian version) is available at: http://www.ufficioselezioneassunzione.unimore.it/site/home/assegni-di-ricer…

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Seminario di Probabilità - Università di Padova
by alessandra bianchi 09 Dec '13

09 Dec '13

Ho il piacere di invitarvi al seguente seminario che si terrà martedì 17 dicembre 2013 alle ore 15 nell'aula 1BC50 del Dipartimento di Matematica di Padova. Speaker: Prof. Fabio Martinelli , Dip. di Matematica, Università di Roma Tre Title: Time scales separation and dynamical heterogeneities in the East model. Abstract: The East model is a finite linear Markov chain of 0-1 spins, evolving according to a very simple rule: i) with rate 1 and independently for each vertex, a new value 1/0 is proposed with probability 1-q and q respectively; ii) the proposed value is accepted iff the spin immediately to the left is 0. The model and its generalizations play an important role as models of the dynamics of real glasses. The parameter q, which turns out to be the density of the zeros (the facilitating spins) in the stationary measure, is assumed to be very small. In the physical literature this setting corresponds to a low temperature case. We will examine the problem of dynamic heterogeneity, i.e. non-trivial spatio-temporal fluctuations of the local relaxation to equilibrium. A key result will be a very precise computation of the relaxation time of the chain as a function of q and of its length, which uses induction on length scales on one hand and a novel algorithmic lower bound on the other. Our findings reject non rigorous approaches based on numerical simulations. We will conclude with a conjecture due to D. Aldous and P. Diaconis about the scaling limit of the East chain as q-->0. Joint work with A. Faggionato and P. Chleboun -- Alessandra Bianchi Dip. di Matematica Pura e Applicata Università di Padova Via Trieste, 63 - 35121 Padova, Italy phone: +39 049 827 14 06 fax: +39 049 827 14 28 e-mail: bianchi(a)math.unipd.it http://www.math.unipd.it/~bianchi/

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Avviso di seminario :: DiSerio@DSS (Scienze Statistiche, Sapienza)
by Pierpaolo Brutti 09 Dec '13

09 Dec '13

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- A v v i s o d i S e m i n a r i o ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Venerdì 13 Dicembre, ore 11am ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stanza 34 Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Sapienza Università di Roma CLELIA DI SERIO (Centro Universitario di Statistica per le Scienze Biomediche, Università Vita-Salute San Raffaele) terrà un seminario dal titolo INVESTIGATING TUMOR DORMANCY WITH FRAILTY tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maggiori informazioni sui seminari presso il DSS sono consultabili a quest'indirizzo: http://goo.gl/Y6OQYm Saluti Pierpaolo Brutti - Fulvio De Santis --- Summary A non-negligible percentage of cancer patients relapse after years or decades after surgical removal of the primary tumor. This phenomenon is not following a random memory-less process and its timing is reflected in hazard rates, with respect to both relapse and mortality, showing multimodal shapes. From a biomedical perspective, such a behavior may be explained by tumor dormancy, i.e. for some patients microscopic tumor foci may remain asymptomatic for a prolonged time interval and, when they escape from dormancy, micrometastatic growth results in a clinical disease appearance. The activation of the growth phase at different metastatic states would explain the occurrence of metastatic recurrences and mortality at different times (multimodal hazard). We place this phenomenon in the framework of survival frailty models. We propose a new statistical approach which models the risk function by considering possible effects of Gamma frailty and compound Poisson fraity in acting on components of the hazard function. Thus, the individual hazard rate is the product of a random frailty variable and the sum of basic hazard rates. The basic hazard rates correspond to micrometastatic developments starting from different initial states. The frailty variable represents the heterogeneity between patients with respect to relapse, which might be related to unknown mechanisms that regulate tumor dormancy. The model is applied to analyze the mortality of patients in a large breast cancer dataset. We show how this framework can appropriately model the tumor dormancy phenomenon and possibly improve the understanding of this biological process.

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Statistica Open Data e Società - Milano, 13 dicembre 2013
by Consonni Guido 06 Dec '13

06 Dec '13

Al termine dell'iniziativa "Statistica Open Data e Società", concorso a premi promosso dal Dipartimento di Scienze statistiche dell'Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in collaborazione con il Comune di Milano, nell'ambito delle celebrazioni per l'Anno Internazionale della Statistica, http://convegni.unicatt.it/meetings_2471.html<http://convegni.unicatt.it/meetings_2471.html,>, <http://convegni.unicatt.it/meetings_2471.htmlsi> si segnala l'evento "Come Open Data e Statistica possono aiutarci a conoscere e migliorare la società", in programma per venerdì 13 dicembre alle ore 18.00 presso l'Acquario Civico di Milano, nel corso del quale saranno premiati i vincitori. La partecipazione è libera, ma per motivi organizzativi si prega di segnalarla inviando una mail a dip.scienzestatistiche(a)unicatt.it<mailto:dip.scienzestatistiche@unicatt.it>. Di seguito il programma e altre informazioni. Venerdì 13 dicembre 2013, ore 18:00, Acquario Civico, Viale Gadio, 2 - Milano Saluti e introduzione: Cristina TAJANI Assessore alle Politiche per il lavoro, Sviluppo economico, Università e ricerca Guido CONSONNI Presidente della Giuria "Statistica, Open Data e Società", Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore Alessandro ROSINA Direttore del Laboratorio di Statistica applicata alla decisioni economico-aziendali, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore Interventi: Nicola TORELLI Presidente della Società Italiana di Statistica, Marco ALFIERI Direttore de Linkiesta Presentazione dei prodotti vincitori del Contest "Statistica, Open Data e Società" Consegna dei premi da parte di Nunatac e Synergia Conclusioni: Cristina TAJANI Assessore alle Politiche per il lavoro, Sviluppo economico, Università e ricerca Brindisi finale

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Post-doc a Lione
by Francesco Caravenna 05 Dec '13

05 Dec '13

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% %% Post-doc positions - Mathematics and Computer Science in Lyon (labex MILYON) %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% See: http://milyon.universite-lyon.fr/offres-de-post-docs/2-post-doctoral-positi… Offer: MILYON (the Laboratoire d'Excellence "Mathématiques et Informatique à Lyon") offers four post-doctoral positions in mathematics and two in computer science for the academic year 2014-2015, to be held at the Unité de Mathématiques Pures et Appliquées or at the Laboratoire de l'Informatique du Parallélisme (École Normale Supérieure de Lyon), or at the Institut Camille Jordan (Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1). These are research-only appointments (without teaching). They are typically for two years, with possible renewal for a third year subject to review. The salary will be 2100 euros per month, with benefits including health insurance and social coverage. Funds will also be provided for traveling and inviting collaborators. Full description: More information can be found on the website of MILYON which contains links to the above three departments. It is requested to contact the colleagues in Lyon who are closest to your specialty. Eligibility: For holders of a Ph.D in mathematics or computer science obtained before October 1st, 2014. Deadline: Applications must be complete (including all reference letters) by: Wednesday, January 15th, 2014, at 17:00 (Lyon local time). How to apply? Applications must be submitted via the online form: http://math.univ-lyon1.fr/limesurvey/index.php?sid=32222&lang=en Requested items: Requested items: - a curriculum vitae; - a list of publications; - a scientific project (around two pages) specifying members of MILYON with whom you plan to interact primarily; - a short letter by a local mentor from Labex MILYON; - two detailed recommendation letters by scientists, not members of MILYON (one of them can be the thesis adviser). Contact: Administrative contact: Carine Sevestre <sevestre(a)math.univ-lyon1.fr> Only for scientific matters: Francis FILBET <filbet(a)math.univ-lyon1.fr>

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