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Seminar Mealli @Bocconi
by Giacomo Zanella 08 Oct '19

08 Oct '19

We announce the following DEC Statistics seminar: Thursday, October 10 12:30 Meeting room 3-e4-sr03, Bocconi University, Via Roentgen 1, 3rd floor Fabrizia Mealli (University of Florence) Title: Assessing causal effects in the presence of treatment switching through principal stratification Abstract: consider clinical trials focusing on survival outcomes for patients suffering from Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS)-related illnesses or particularly painful cancers in advanced stages. These trials often allow patients in the control arm to switch to the treatment arm if their physical conditions are worse than certain tolerance levels. The Intention-To-Treat analysis compares groups formed by randomization regardless of the treatment actually received. Although it provides valid causal estimates of the effect of assignment, it does not measure the effect of the actual receipt of the treatment and ignores the information of treatment switching in the control group. Other existing methods propose to reconstruct the outcome a unit would have had if s/he had not switched. But these methods usually rely on strong assumptions, for example, there exists no relation between patient's prognosis and switching behavior, or the treatment effect is constant. Clearly, the switching status of the units in the control group contains important post-treatment information, which is useful to characterize the treatment effect heterogeneity. We propose to re-define the problem of treatment switching using principal stratification and introduce new causal estimands, principal causal effects for patients belonging to subpopulations defined by the switching behavior under control. For statistical inference, we use a Bayesian approach to take into account that (i) switching happens in continuous time generating infinitely many principal strata; (ii) switching time is not defined for units who never switch in a particular experiment; and (iii) survival time and switching time are subject to censoring. We illustrate our framework using a synthetic dataset based on the Concorde study, a randomized controlled trial aimed to assess causal effects on time to-disease progression or death of immediate versus deferred treatment with zidovudine among patients with asymptomatic HIV infection. Joint work with Alessandra Mattei and Peng Ding Kind regards, Giacomo Zanella The DEC statistics seminars schedule is available at http://www.unibocconi.eu/statseminar Please note: if you are a guest and you do not have a Bocconi ID Card to access to the Bocconi Buildings, please communicate your participation by sending an email to arianna.colombo(a)unibocconi.it

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2-year Teaching Fellow in Statistics at the University of Leeds
by Tiziano De Angelis 07 Oct '19

07 Oct '19

Dear All, We have an opening for a Teaching Fellow in Statistics at the University of Leeds. The position is fixed term for 2 years. Please see the advert below https://www.timeshighereducation.com/unijobs/minisites/university-of-leeds/… I would be most grateful if you could please circulate the advert to any potential candidate. Best wishes Tiziano

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Postdoctoral position at UBC, Vancouver
by Antonio DI CRESCENZO 04 Oct '19

04 Oct '19

---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Mathav Murugan <mathav(a)math.ubc.ca> Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2019 at 00:09 Subject: Postdoctoral position at UBC Dear friends and colleagues, We invite applications for postdoctoral fellowships in probability theory in the Mathematics Department, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada. For more details, please see the link: http://www.math.ubc.ca/Research/Probability/pdf.html We would be grateful if you could forward the information to potential interested candidates. With best regards, Omer Angel, Jonathan Hermon, Mathav Murugan, Ed Perkins, Gordon Slade ------------------------------

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PhD studentship in spatial stochastics
by Gianluca Finocchio 02 Oct '19

02 Oct '19

Gentili colleghi/e,vi inoltro l'annuncio della Prof. Marie-Colette van Lieshout, University of Twente (Olanda). Gianluca Finocchio ============================================= The University of Twente, The Netherlands, invites applications for a PhD studentship in spatial stochastics in the project `Comprehensive monitoring and prediction of seismicity within the Groningen gas field using large scale field observations', which is embedded in the national research programme DeepNL funded by the Dutch Research Council. Candidates are required to have a Master’s degree in mathematics or a related discipline and a solid background in probability, statistics and numerical mathematics. They should have excellent grades, research talent (as proven by their Master’s thesis), an excellent command of English and good academic writing and presentation skills. The terms of employment are in accordance with the Dutch Collective Labour Agreement for universities. The salary will range from EUR 2325 per calendar month in the first year to 2972 in the fourth year. Additional secondary conditions include superannuation and health care benefits, a holiday allowance and end-of-year bonus. To apply, please send a letter of motivation, a list of your BSc and MSc courses with grades and either a copy of your Master's thesis if available or a copy of your Bachelor's thesis accompanied by an outline of your Master's thesis to Prof.dr M.N.M. van Lieshout Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica Science Park 123, 1098 XG Amsterdam Email: m.n.m.vanlieshout(a)utwente.nl before October the 27th. Further information can be obtained at the same address.

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Leeds Winter School on Theory and Practice of Optimal Stopping and Free Boundary Problems
by Tiziano De Angelis 01 Oct '19

01 Oct '19

Dear All, I would like to draw your attention to the following winter school: *-------------------------* *Title:* Leeds Winter School on Theory and Practice of Optimal Stopping and Free Boundary Problems. *Website:* https://conferences.leeds.ac.uk/osfbp/ *Date and Location:* 13th-17th of January 2020, School of Mathematics University of Leeds *Registration:* registration is free but compulsory by the 15th of December (see details at https://conferences.leeds.ac.uk/osfbp/registration/ ) *Short description: *This winter school is mainly aimed at PhD students and post-docs but participation is open to anyone with an interest in the subject. The lectures will provide a comprehensive introduction to the theory of optimal stopping for Markov processes, including applications to Dynkin games, with an emphasis on the existing links to the theory of partial differential equations and free boundary problems. Alongside traditional lectures there will also be tutorial classes (4 hours) with a focus on solutions of specific problems. On Wednesday 15th of January there will be a full day workshop on a broad range of topics related to optimal stopping and stochastic control. We strongly encourage attendees of the winter school to submit a contributed talk at the time of their registration. -------------------------- I would be most grateful if you could please pass this advert on to potentially interested people. All enquiries can be addressed directly to me (t.deangelis(a)leeds.ac.uk). Thank you and best wishes Tiziano De Angelis

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Seminar announcement
by Marco Scarsini 01 Oct '19

01 Oct '19

Thursday, 3 October, 12:00 Luiss | Viale Romania, 32 | Room 207 Yosi Rinott, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Title Priors and Posteriors of Asset Values, Domination, Optimism, and Monotonicity Abstract Suppose there is a set of states that are relevant to the value of an asset, and the market has a prior distribution on the state space. Consider signals having distribution depending on the true state. The price of an asset depends on the market’s posterior probability that the asset is in a good state, given a signal. Before the signal is given, the market considers the expectation of this (random) posterior probability, and more generally, its distribution. It is well known that the expected posterior equals the prior, but the actual posterior probability may be higher or lower than the prior depending on the signal. Suppose an insider has a different prior than the market. We study the question of what kind of priors will make the insider expect that the asset value following the signal will be higher than the market’s value (suggesting to buy, or to be optimistic). Since the posterior is a random variable, this leads to stochastic ordering, and in fact, we obtain a very strong ordering, namely likelihood ratio order. Given such a setup, if signals are generated independently according to a given state, then Doob’s Bayesian Consistency Theorem says that the posterior probability of this state converges to one. We study some monotonicity properties of this convergence, and some (perhaps) surprising lack of monotonicity. ******************************************************* Marco Scarsini Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza Luiss Viale Romania 32 00197 Roma, ITALY URL: http://docenti.luiss.it/scarsini/

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Seminario di Claudio Macci presso l’Università di Salerno
by Barbara Martinucci 01 Oct '19

01 Oct '19

Il Prof. Claudio Macci (Università di Roma Tor Vergata) terrà il seguente seminario mercoledì 9 ottobre alle ore 16.00 presso la sala riunioni del Dipartimento di Matematica dell’Università di Salerno: *Titolo*: "Multivariate fractional (possibly compound) Poisson processes " *Abstract:* We present multivariate space-time fractional Poisson processes by considering common random time-changes of a finite-dimensional vector of independent classical (non fractional) Poisson processes. In some cases we also consider compound processes. We obtain some equations in terms of some suitable fractional derivatives and fractional difference operators, which provides the extension of known equations for the univariate processes. In particular we show that, for each fixed t≥0, the conditional joint distribution of the components given their sum is multinomial, as happens for the non fractional Poisson processes. Thus we consider a suitable multivariate "alternative" fractional Poisson process, and we study its asymptotic behavior for large times (large and moderate deviations). The results appear in two papers with Luisa Beghin Cordiali saluti, Barbara Martinucci

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🆕 Intensive Research Programme in Quantitative Finance
by Maria Elvira Mancino 30 Sep '19

30 Sep '19

Da: "Centre de Recerca Matemàtica (CRM)" difusions(a)crm.cat Cc: Data: Mon, 30 Sep 2019 12:18:34 +0000 Oggetto: 🆕 Intensive Research Programme in Quantitative Finance View this email in your browser [1] Dear colleague, we are pleased to announce the forthcoming CRM Intensive Research Programme in QUANTITATIVE FINANCE JUNE – JULY 2020 Centre de Recerca Matemàtica (BARCELONA) This intensive program focuses in hot topics in Quantitative Finance. In the last decades, problems emerging in the financial industry have been a starting point for the development of quantitative techniques. These techniques cover a wide spectrum of mathematical fields, from probability theory to numerical and computational tools. A huge volume of research has done in the academia inspired by these problems. In the contrary direction, the financial industry is using more and more advanced (from the mathematical point of view) tools and concepts, due to the increasing complexity of markets, that can only be addressed with high-level quantitative methods. This program has been designed to create a bridge between the academia and the industry and it is thought to be a forum to gather professionals working in this area. This means, from the academia, the financial industry and specialized software companies. The program will last for two months and it will take place at the Centre de Recerca Matemàtica during the period June-July 2020. The program is composed of: ADVANCED COURSE ON NUMERICAL METHODS IN FINANCE [2]. June 8th to 12th, 2020 ADVANCED COURSE ON STOCHASTIC TOOLS IN FINANCE [3]. June 15th to 19th, 2020 WEEKLY SEMINARS FOR RESEARCHERS. June 22nd to July 24th, 2020 WEEKLY SEMINARS FOR STUDENTS. June 22nd to July 24th, 2020 WORKSHOP: NEW CHALLENGES IN QUANTITATIVE FINANCE [4]. July 13th to 17th, 2020 ORGANIZERS: Elisa Alòs Universitat Pompeu Fabra Luis Ortiz-Gracia Universitat de Barcelona Josep Vives Universitat de Barcelona-IMUB SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE: Elisa Alòs Universitat Pompeu Fabra José Manuel Corcuera Universitat de Barcelona Maria Elvira Mancino Università di Firenze Cornelis W. Oosterlee Delft University of Technology and CWI Luis Ortiz-Gracia Universitat de Barcelona Carlos Vázquez Cendón Universidade da Coruña Josep Vives Universitat de Barcelona-IMUB We hope you find this information of interest. Best regards, CENTRE DE RECERCA MATEMÀTICA Campus de Bellaterra, Edifici C 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) Tel.: + 34 93 581 10 81 Fax: + 34 93 581 22 02 WWW.CRM.CAT [5] @CRMATEMATICA [6] [7] [8] [9] Centre de Recerca Matemàtica, Campus de Bellaterra, Edifici C 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) tl.: 935811081 fax:935812202 crm(a)crm.cat Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences [10] or unsubscribe from this list [11]. This email was sent to info(a)amases.org _why did I get this?_ [12] unsubscribe from this list [11] update subscription preferences [10] Consorci del Centre de Recerca Matemàtica · Centre de Recerca Matemàtica · Campus de Bellaterra, Edifici C · Bellaterra, Barcelona 08193 · Spain [13] Links: ------ [1] https://mailchi.mp/cdea4a0dcf23/intensive-research-programme-in-quantitativ… [2] https://crm.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=34be5dbb4af0e8e87fd462228&am… [3] https://crm.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=34be5dbb4af0e8e87fd462228&am… [4] https://crm.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=34be5dbb4af0e8e87fd462228&am… [5] https://crm.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=34be5dbb4af0e8e87fd462228&am… [6] https://crm.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=34be5dbb4af0e8e87fd462228&am… [7] https://crm.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=34be5dbb4af0e8e87fd462228&am… [8] https://crm.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=34be5dbb4af0e8e87fd462228&am… [9] https://crm.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=34be5dbb4af0e8e87fd462228&am… [10] https://crm.us20.list-manage.com/profile?u=34be5dbb4af0e8e87fd462228&id… [11] https://crm.us20.list-manage.com/unsubscribe?u=34be5dbb4af0e8e87fd462228&am… [12] https://crm.us20.list-manage.com/about?u=34be5dbb4af0e8e87fd462228&id=3… [13] http://www.mailchimp.com/monkey-rewards/?utm_source=freemium_newsletter&amp…

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Chapman Fellowship Blurb - postdoctoral position
by Antonio DI CRESCENZO 29 Sep '19

29 Sep '19

Imperial College London is seeking applicants for the Chapman Fellowship, a prestigious two-year postdoctoral position for finishing and recent PhDs in mathematics. The position is primarily research, with a small amount of teaching duties (about half the usual load). Chapman fellows are free to carry out their own independent program of research. Many past Chapman fellows have received excellent permanent positions. For more information and to apply, please go to the website: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/jobs/description/NAT00517/chapman-fellowship-mat… . Applications are *due on 1 November, 2019 (strictly by 11:59 PM, GMT)*, via the website linked to above. Note that applicants need to choose a staff member of Imperial's Mathematics Department to help review their application. Please pass this blurb on to anyone interested. Thank you very much!

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Fwd: premio Cuozzo
by Lucia Caramellino 27 Sep '19

27 Sep '19

Ricevo ed inoltro il seguente avviso per un premio di tesi di dottorato in Matematica. > Inizio messaggio inoltrato: > > Da: Filippo Bracci <fbracci(a)mat.uniroma2.it> > Oggetto: premio Cuozzo > Data: 26 settembre 2019 20:05:45 CEST > A: Filippo Bracci <fbracci(a)mat.uniroma2.it> > > (Con preghiera di diffusione tra gli interessati), > > Cari colleghi, > > sono lieto di informarvi che anche quest’anno la Famiglia Cuozzo ha generosamente rinnovato il premio di 3000 euro dedicato alla memoria di Michele Cuozzo, premio a cui possono partecipare tutti coloro che abbiano conseguito il titolo di Dottore di Ricerca in Matematica, o titolo riconosciuto equipollente, nei 12 mesi precedenti alla scadenza del bando. Maggiori informazioni a > > http://www.mat.uniroma2.it/Docs_avvisi-L/BandoCuozzo2019prot.pdf <http://www.mat.uniroma2.it/Docs_avvisi-L/BandoCuozzo2019prot.pdf> > > La scadenza per la presentazione delle domande è il 26 ottobre 2019 alle ore 12,00 > > Grazie > > a presto > > Filippo > > > -- > ************************ > Prof. Filippo Bracci > Dipartimento di Matematica > Universita' di Roma "Tor Vergata" > Via della Ricerca Scientifica 1 > 00133 Roma - ITALIA > Tel: (+39-)06-7259 4643/4105 > Fax: (+39-)06-7259 4699 > E-mail: fbracci(a)mat.uniroma2.it <mailto:fbracci@mat.uniroma2.it> > Web-page: www.mat.uniroma2.it/~fbracci <http://www.mat.uniroma2.it/~fbracci> > +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Lucia Caramellino Dipartimento di Matematica Università di Roma “Tor Vergata” Web: http://www.mat.uniroma2.it/~caramell

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