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Seminario on-line PRISMA lunedì 2 marzo 2026 - S. Cerrai & G. Guatteri External Posta in arrivo
by Sonia Mazzucchi 02 Mar '26

02 Mar '26

Seminari on-line del gruppo UMI - PRISMA (http://www.umi-prisma.polito.it/) I seminari PRISMA hanno un formato di "colloquium" per creare un'occasione di scambio e discussione con tutta la comunità dei probabilisti e statistici italiani. Ogni giornata comprende due relatori che tengono due seminari di 30 minuti strettamente connessi, per presentare alla comunità una prospettiva sul proprio ambito di ricerca. Dallo scorso anno le registrazioni dei seminari vengono pubblicate sul canale YouTube dell'UMI: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLmySpc-jrtAMSrfXSQy_lBRY2sGEWnyir Il prossimo appuntamento è per oggi, *lunedì 2 marzo* 2026. I relatori saranno *Sandra Cerrai *(University of Maryland) e *Giuseppina Guatteri* (Politecnico di Milano) che parleranno di: *Nonlinear Random Perturbations of PDEs: Toward an Infinite-Dimensional Theory* con il seguente orario: 16:00 Primo seminario 16:30 Pausa e discussione 16:45 Secondo seminario 17:15 Conclusione e discussione Trovate in allegato l’abstract. I seminari verranno trasmessi via Zoom al seguente link: https://unitn.zoom.us/j/89967257735 <https://www.google.com/url?q=https://unitn.zoom.us/j/89967257735&sa=D&sourc…> ID riunione: 899 6725 7735 Codice d’accesso: 727722 Vi aspettiamo numerosi! Alberto Chiarini e Sonia Mazzucchi

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MOX Colloquia: Tilmann Gneiting - Giovedì 5 Marzo ore 14:00
by Laura Maria Sangalli 02 Mar '26

02 Mar '26

Cari Colleghi, vi segnalo il seguente seminario della serie dei MOX COLLOQUIA: 05.03.26 ore 14:00 - Aula Consiglio, Edificio 14, Politecnico di Milano Speaker: Prof. Tilmann Gneiting, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Titolo: Assessing Monotone Dependence - with Applications to Weather Prediction Abstract: The assessment of monotone dependence between random variables $X$ and $Y$ is a classical problem in statistics and a gamut of application domains. Consequently, researchers have sought measures of association that are invariant under strictly increasing transformations of the margins, with the extant literature being splintered. Rank correlation coefficients, such as Spearman's rho and Kendall's tau, have been studied at great length in the statistical literature, mostly under the assumption that $X$ and $Y$ are continuous. In the case of a dichotomous outcome $Y$, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and the asymmetric area under the ROC curve (AUC) measure are used to assess monotone dependence of $Y$ on a predictor $X$. In this talk I demonstrate that the two thus far disconnected strands of literature can be unified and bridged, by developing common population level theory, common estimators, and common tests that apply to all types of linearly ordered outcomes. In a case study, we assess recent progress in artificial intelligence based weather prediction (AIWP) versus traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP). The talk is based on joint work with Eva-Maria Walz and Andreas Eberl. Il seminario sarà accessibile online: https://mox.polimi.it/mox-colloquia-seminars-list/mox-seminars/?id_evento=2… https://cassyni.com/events/UEGpAYwVEdDSxoqc3JkK57?0kaaw Per seguire il seminario in streaming, è necessario iscriversi (gratuitamente) sulla piattaforma Cassyni. Seguirà rinfresco presso il Dipartimento di Matematica. Cordiali saluti, Laura Sangalli —— Laura Maria Sangalli MOX - Dipartimento di Matematica Politecnico di Milano Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 20133 Milano - Italy (+39) 02 2399 4554 laura.sangalli(a)polimi.it https://sangalli.faculty.polimi.it

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Seminar by Prof. Frank den Hollander at IMT Lucca | March 4, 2026
by Anna Gallo 28 Feb '26

28 Feb '26

Dear all, On behalf of Prof. Diego Garlaschelli, I am pleased to announce that next week *Professor Frank den Hollander* will visit IMT Lucca and give a seminar entitled *The Friendship Paradox for Social Networks* (see abstract below). The seminar will take place on: *March 4, 2026 – 3:00 PM* San Francesco Complex – Sagrestia IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca Join online at: imt.lu/sagrestia . All the best, Anna ------------------------------ *Abstract: *Consider a group of individuals who form a social network. For each individual in the group compute its friendship-bias, i.e., the difference between the average number of friends of its friends and the number of its friends (all friendships are mutual), and average these numbers over all the individuals in the group. It turns out that the latter average is always non-negative, and is strictly positive as soon as not all individuals have exactly the same number of friends. This fact, which at first glance seems counterintuitive, goes under the name of friendship paradox. In this talk we model the social network as a graph and explain where the friendship paradox comes from. For sequences of random graphs that converge locally in an appropriate sense, we quantify the friendship paradox by identifying the limit of the empirical distribution of the friendship-biases of all the individuals. For two examples of random graphs, we work out the properties of this limit in detail. We further discuss variants of the model where we look at the number of friends at deeper levels and at quantities other than the number of friends. We close by offering an outlook on future challenges.

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Fwd: Assistant Professor in Mathematics (3 year position), University College Dublin
by Elia Bisi 27 Feb '26

27 Feb '26

Dear colleagues, I’m glad to circulate the announcement below. Best regards, Elia Bisi ————————— Elia Bisi Assistant Professor (RTT) University of Florence Department of Mathematics & Computer Science Personal homepage Florence Probability group ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Neil O'Connell <neil.oconnell(a)ucd.ie> Date: 27 Feb 2026 at 14:52 +0100 To: Neil O'Connell <Neil.oconnell(a)ucd.ie> Subject: Assistant Professor in Mathematics (3 year position), University College Dublin > Dear colleagues, > > The School of Mathematics and Statistics at University College Dublin is currently advertising a three-year Assistant Professor position in Mathematics, with closing date March 23. Preference will be given to applicants whose research is in the area of probability, although applicants from all areas of Mathematics are invited to apply. > > For more details, see > > https://www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQQ295/lecturer-assistant-professor-in-mathemati… > > Please forward to anyone who you think might be interested. > > Best wishes, > Neil

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Call for applications - 2026 Bocconi Summer School on Causality and Graphical Models
by Antonio Lijoi 27 Feb '26

27 Feb '26

CALL FOR APPLICATIONS 2026 BOCCONI SUMMER SCHOOL IN STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY The 2026 edition of the Bocconi-StatML Summer School in Statistics and Probability, jointly organized by Bocconi University with the University of Oxford and Imperial College London, will take place JULY 8-17, 2026, at Villa del Grumello, Lake of Como, Italy. The topic of this year’s school is **Causality and Graphical Models** The main instructor is Aad van der Vaart (TU Delft). The summer school is open to all interested scholars and is particularly aimed at PhD students. The deadline for applications is: April 14, 2026. For more information, please visit: https://bss2026.lakecomoschool.org/ or contact BSS.statistics(a)unibocconi.it

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[Deadline extended] Workshop Junior Female Researchers in Probability in Berlin, 24--26 June 2026
by Alexander Zass 27 Feb '26

27 Feb '26

Care colleghe e colleghi, vogliamo ricordarvi il prossimo workshop di Junior Female Researchers in Probability, annunciato qui sotto. Il termine ultimo per registrarsi è stato posticipato al 15 marzo. Potete trovare maggiori informazioni alla pagina web: https://www.wias-berlin.de/workshops/JFRP26/. Vi prego gentilmente di diffondere questo annuncio a chiunque crediate possa interessare. Cordialmente, Alexander Zass > We're excited to announce the workshop > Junior Female Researchers in Probability, > taking place June 24–26, 2026 at TU Berlin. > > The workshop offers junior female researchers in probability a platform to present their research and network in an informal setting. > > Keynote lectures will be given by: > Patricia Alonso Ruiz (University of Jena) > Alison Etheridge (University of Oxford) > Patrícia Gonçalves (IST Lisbon) > > Additional invited talks will be given by: > Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco (JKU Linz) > Ofelia Bonesini (LSE London) > Chengcheng Ling (University of Augsburg) > > We warmly invite those who identify as female to submit abstracts for contributed talks, and apply for financial support for travelling to Berlin. For details on abstract submission and registration, visit the website: > https://www.wias-berlin.de/workshops/JFRP26/ > The deadline for registration is March 1, 2026 [extended to March 15, 2026]. > > The organising team — Peter Bank, Franziska Bielert, Dörte Kreher, Helena Kremp, Gemma Sedrakjan, Janine Steck, Thomas Wagenhofer, Maite Wilke Berenguer, Alexander Zass — is looking forward to welcoming you in Berlin for a productive and engaging workshop.

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Random mailing list
by Marco Romito 27 Feb '26

27 Feb '26

[English below] Cari membri della lista, desideriamo informarvi che la mailing list Random è rimasta inattiva nell’ultima settimana a causa della sospensione dell’infrastruttura informatica che ospita la lista, in seguito a un tentativo non autorizzato di accesso a uno dei server. La mailing list è nuovamente operativa da questa mattina. Purtroppo l’interfaccia web https://lists.dm.unipi.it/postorius/lists/random.lists.dm.unipi.it/ non è ancora disponibile e non è quindi attualmente possibile, in particolare, inviare richieste di iscrizione e controllare gli archivi. Vi chiediamo gentilmente di inviare eventuali richieste ai nostri indirizzi email personali fino alla risoluzione dei problemi tecnici. Invieremo un ulteriore messaggio non appena il servizio sarà completamente ripristinato. Un caro saluto, Marco e Francesco %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% Dear list members, we would like to inform you that the Random mailing list has been inactive over the past week due to a shutdown of the IT infrastructure hosting the list, following an unauthorized attempt to access one of the servers. The mailing list has been operational again since this morning. Unfortunately, the web interface https://lists.dm.unipi.it/postorius/lists/random.lists.dm.unipi.it/ is still unavailable, and it is therefore not currently possible, in particular, to submit subscription requests and to access the list archives. We kindly ask you to send any such requests to our personal email addresses until the technical issues have been resolved. We will send a further message once full service has been restored.

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[DEADLINE APPROACHING SOON] PhD and Postdoc opportunities at University of Oslo
by Leonardo Tarquini 27 Feb '26

27 Feb '26

Dear All, Deadline approaching soon for some opportunities within the group of Risk and Stochastics at the Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo. Up to 2 PhD positions in stochastic analysis and computational mathematics. Connection to SURE-AI community Read here: https://www.jobbnorge.no/en/available-jobs/job/294743/phd-research-fellow-i… One Postdoc position in stochastic analysis for research lovers in a simmering group. Read here: https://www.jobbnorge.no/en/available-jobs/job/294745/postdoctoral-research… Deadline for application March 1st, 2026! Please help us distribute this information widely. Best regards, Giulia and Leonardo

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SPASS seminars: G. Cipolloni and R. Fukuizumi - Tue 3 Mar
by Elia Bisi 26 Feb '26

26 Feb '26

Dear Colleagues, We would like to invite you to the following two SPASS seminars (joint organised by UniPi, SNS, UniFi and UniSi) on Tuesday 3rd March: 14.00-15.00: Logarithmically correlated fields from large random matrices (Aula Tricerri, Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica, Università di Firenze) by Giorgio Cipolloni (Tor Vergata). 15.00-16.00: Phi^4_d model associated with the harmonic oscillator (Aula Riunioni ex-DMA, Dipartimento di Matematica, Università di Pisa) by Reika Fukuizumi (Waseda University, Japan). Both talks will be also streamed online here: meet.google.com/ydw-gsjr-vza On behalf of the organisers, Elia Bisi ------------------- Abstract (Cipolloni): We study the Brownian evolution of large non-Hermitian matrices and show that their log-determinant converges to a 2+1 dimensional Gaussian field in the Edwards-Wilkinson regularity class, i.e. logarithmically correlated for the parabolic distance. This gives a dynamical extension of the celebrated result by Rider and Virag (2006) proving that the fluctuations of the eigenvalues of Gaussian non-Hermitian matrices converge to the Gaussian Free Field. ------------------- Abstract (Fukuizumi): We present recent developments in the mathematical study of the stochastic Gross–Pitaevskii equation, as a mathematical model for Bose–Einstein condensates subject to thermal fluctuations, such as those occurring near the critical temperature of condensation. In this regime, interactions between the condensate and the surrounding thermal cloud of non-condensed atoms must be incorporated in a way consistent with the fluctuation–dissipation principle, ensuring relaxation toward the correct physical equilibrium. The damping and noise terms are precisely balanced so that the dynamics formally admits a Gibbs measure associated with the Gross–Pitaevskii Hamiltonian as an invariant measure. This talk, which will be on the existence of the local / global solution, construction of the Gibbs measure, and long time behaviors, is a summary of several collaborative works with A. de Bouard, A. Debussche, A. Deya, T. Iwabuchi, L. Thomann. ————————— Elia Bisi Assistant Professor (RTT) University of Florence Department of Mathematics & Computer Science Personal homepage Florence Probability group

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OWABI- Shreya Sinha Roy - February 26 - 11am Uk time
by Umberto Picchini 26 Feb '26

26 Feb '26

Dear all, The next OWABI www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi <http://www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi> seminar is quickly approaching. Our next speaker is Shreya Sinha Roy <https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/research_students/sinharoy/> (University of Warwick), who will talk about "Prequential posteriors" on *Thursday the 26th February at 11am UK* time, with an abstract reported below. The talk will be streamed on the OWABI MS Team channel General | OWABI Seminar: One World Approximate Bayesian Inference Seminar | Microsoft Teams <https://teams.microsoft.com/l/team/19%3AdhZ_4e_XLNJzCXPAMzTvT6BZ5KShEETkd_w…>, at the link below *Join: *_https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/32189045171547?p=HltIhSAIPRyOBZfj2M <https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/32189045171547?p=HltIhSAIPRyOBZfj2M>_ Meeting ID: 321 890 451 715 47 Passcode: Ek7Su3TJ We are looking forward to seeing you at the next OWABI seminar, Best, Umberto on the behalf of the OWABI seminar organisers *Speaker*: Shreya Sinha Roy <https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/research_students/sinharoy/> (University of Warwick) *Title*: Prequential posteriors *Abstract:* Data assimilation is a fundamental task in updating forecasting models upon observing new data, with applications ranging from weather prediction to online reinforcement learning. Deep generative forecasting models (DGFMs) have shown excellent performance in these areas, but assimilating data into such models is challenging due to their intractable likelihood functions. This limitation restricts the use of standard Bayesian data assimilation methodologies for DGFMs. To overcome this, we introduce prequential posteriors, based upon a predictive-sequential (prequential) loss function; an approach naturally suited for temporally dependent data which is the focus of forecasting tasks. Since the true data-generating process often lies outside the assumed model class, we adopt an alternative notion of consistency and prove that, under mild conditions, both the prequential loss minimizer and the prequential posterior concentrate around parameters with optimal predictive performance. For scalable inference, we employ easily parallelizable wastefree sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers with preconditioned gradient-based kernels, enabling efficient exploration of high-dimensional parameter spaces such as those in DGFMs. We validate our method on both a synthetic multi-dimensional time series and a real-world meteorological dataset; highlighting its practical utility for data assimilation for complex dynamical systems. *Keywords*: diffusion models, simulation based inference, sequential methods. *Reference*: S. S. Roy, R. Everitt, C. Robert, R. Dutta. Prequential posteriors <https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.17721v1>. Preprint at ArXiv:2511.17721, 2025. -- ____________________________________________________________________ Umberto Picchini, Full Professor of Mathematical Statistics https://umbertopicchini.github.io/ , Bluesky: @upicchini.bsky.social

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