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Seminario di Marta Leocata, Martedì 21 Marzo, Sapienza Università di Roma
by Silvestri, Vittoria 16 Mar '23

16 Mar '23

Segnalo il seguente seminario, che si terrà Martedì prossimo in Sapienza. *Martedì 21 Marzo, ore 14:00* Sala di Consiglio, Dipartimento di Matematica, Sapienza Università di Roma *Speaker:* Marta Leocata, SNS *Title: *Modeling an example of green transition *Abstract:* The work presented is part of a collaboration between mathematicians and philosophers of ethics, politics, and society aiming to understand mechanisms of green energy transition where some kind of interaction between many subjects and collective behaviors seem to play a role. We have identified as a first example the case of solar photovoltaic, with the purpose of explaining the time series of Italy and of different regions. We use tools from continuous-time Markov chains, mean field limits, optimal control, and mean field games. Then, we specify our analysis on the case of domestic installations. In order to explain them we propose a Markovian model of interacting particle systems to describe the decision of a significant proportion of the general public in Italy on the installation of solar photovoltaics (PVs) and compare our models to real data. We assume that the adoption decision follows a well precise pattern. First, the general public develops a certain level of sensitivity to climate change and environmental issues. Then it plans to install the PVs because she/he has a sufficient amount of information on the benefits of PVs. Finally, it installs PVs because the economic benefits out-weights the costs. In conclusion, we propose some original policies, not based not on financial incentives. This work is in collaboration with Franco Flandoli (SNS), Giulia Livieri (SNS), Silvia Morlacchi (SNS), Fausto Corvino (University of Gothenburg) and Alberto Pirni (SSSA). ******************************** Vittoria Silvestri Assistant Professor Department of Mathematics University "La Sapienza" Piazzale Aldo Moro, 5 00185 - Rome ********************************

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International Conference in Venice - CALL FOR PAPERS
by Monica Billio 16 Mar '23

16 Mar '23

22nd INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE C.r.e.d.i.t. 2023 *Social, Sovereign and Geopolitical Risks * Venice, Italy 21 –22 September 2023 * * *GRETA Associati* (Venice, Italy), *CRIF* (Bologna, Italy),*European Datawarehouse* (Frankfurt, Germany),*European Investment Bank *(Luxembourg),*European Investment Fund *(Luxembourg) and *Intesa Sanpaolo *(Milan, Italy) are partners in organasing a Conference to be held in Venice on September 21-22, 2023. The C.r.e.d.i.t. 2023 conference will bring together academics, practitioners and PhD students working in various areas of financial and socio-economic risk with the aim of creating a unique opportunity for participants to discuss research progress and policy as well as industry-relevant insights and directions for future research. The C.r.e.d.i.t. 2023 is the*twenty-second *in a series of events dedicated to various aspects of credit risk and organised under the auspices of: the *Department of Economics* and *VERA - Venice centre in Economic and Risk Analytics for public policies - of the Ca’ Foscari University of Venice*, *ABI - Italian Banking Association*,***AIAF - Associazione Italiana per l'Analisi Finanziaria* and *AIFIRM - Associazione Italiana Financial Industry Risk Managers*. Recent years have seen a series of crises (from health/pandemic to climate/energy) that have not only put a strain on global mechanisms previously seen as robust, but have exacerbated existing weaknesses and so increased vulnerability in new crisis situations. The social impact of the pandemic was partially mitigated by public interventions but social conditions then worsened with the soaring costs of energy, raw materials and inflation more broadly. Social and energy costs, which inevitably weigh on invidual countries and aggravate already delicate local situations (e.g., public debts), have led to growing geopolitical tensions, with global systemic consequences. The C.r.e.d.i.t. 2023 conference will be dedicated to Social, Sovereign and Geopolitical Risks to discuss, evaluate and address the near- and medium-term macro-financial impact of persistent crises (“permacrisis”) that can affect the stability of financial as well as socio-economic systems. The organizers encourage submissions on any topic within the overall theme of the conference and in the following areas in particular: * *Socio-economic Stability: *Future development of income (and wealth) inequality and social polarization; Risk, inequality and employment impacts of crises and policies; Gender and skilling issues will increase or help the transition?; * *Sovereign Risks: * Sovereign debt with low economic growth; Long term challenges for fiscal and monetary policies: green transformation, commodity prices, de-globalization and demographic trends; Inflation and exchange rate risks; Environmental and social inter-dependencies; social and environmental preferences and how these affect the stability and macroeconomic wellbeing of a given country; Challenges in measuring the ESG ratings of countries and thus of sovereign debt; * *Geopolitical Risks:* Global supply chain and de-globalization risks for finance; Do international energy price discrepancies pose risks for the competitiveness of EU firms’ and might this have implications for the real exchange rate to?; Risks stemming from accelerating deglobalisation; Cyber-risk vulnerabilities of banks and firms; * *Energy/Commodity Security:* Energy prices and financial performance of firms; Inefficiency of energy markets under scarcity; Transition costs under high energy and resource prices; Volatility of energy-related asset prices (both brown and green) and implications for medium and long term investments in energy production technologies, energy commodity assets and energy infrastructure; Implications of net zero policies for the prices of real estate assets, especially for homeowners and households; * *Long Run Investments and Portfolios:* Stability of asset market equilibria under low returns; Regulation (-demand) driven asset prices; Equilibrium asset price levels under structural transformation and high uncertainty; Net zero pledges and the possible trade-off between sustainability and returns; Engagement versus divesting. The final program will include both submitted and invited papers. Acceptances received so far from invited speakers include *Helen Rey* (London Business School), *Elisa Giuliani *(University of Pisa) and *Moritz Schularick *(Sciences Po Paris & University of Bonn). The Conference will also include panel discussions on the major issues at stake with the views of researchers', practitioners' and policy makers. The SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE for the Conference consists of: *Moritz Schularick *(Sciences Po Paris & University of Bonn, Programme Chair) *Francesca Campolongo* (Joint Research Center, European Commission) *Rajna Gibson* (University of Geneva & Geneva Finance Research Institute) *Helmut Kraemer-Eis* (European Investment Fund) *Jan Pieter Krahnen *(Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE & Goethe University) *Steven Ongena *(University of Zurich, Swiss Finance Institute, KU Leuven, NTNU Business School & CEPR) *Loriana Pelizzon *(Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE & Goethe University) *Roberto Rigobon* (MIT Sloan School of Management) *Stephen Schaefer *(London Business School) *Marti Subrahmanyam *(NYU Stern Business School) *Christoph Trebesch* (Kiel Institute) CALL FOR PAPERS Those wishing to present a paper at the Conference should submit by *May 31, 2023 *to the address given below (preferably in electronic format). Please indicate to whom correspondence should be addressed. Decisions regarding acceptance will be made by *June 30, 2023*. The final version of accepted papers must be received by August 31, 2023. Please send papers to: GRETA Associati, San Polo, 2605 - 30125 Venice, ITALY Phone : +39 041 5238178 - e-mail: credit(a)greta.it More detailed information available on the Conference website: https://www.greta.it/index.php/it/credit-2023

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Summer School Mathematical foundations of Quantum Machine Learning
by Sonia Mazzucchi 15 Mar '23

15 Mar '23

Dear all, We are glad to announce the Summer School *Mathematical Foundations of Quantum Machine Learning*, to be held from 10 to 14 July 2023 at the University of Trento. The aim of the School is to present in an accessible way to a wide audience the mathematical theory underlying Quantum Machine Learning, through three mini courses held by researchers active in this field: Giacomo De Palma (University of Bologna) *Quantum Machine Learning*, Dario Trevisan (University of Pisa) *Quantum algorithms*, Leonardo Banchi (University of Firenze) *Laboratory*. The School aims to provide an opportunity for different communities to meet up, fostering the interactions, allowing exchanges of ideas and methods and contributing to the diffusion of open problems. It is meant mainly for master and graduate students, but also for postdocs, young as well as senior researchers interested in approaching this blooming research field. Registration is open on the website http://datascience.maths.unitn.it/events/qml2023/ We hope to see you in Trento! Sonia Mazzucchi, Claudio Agostinelli, Gian Paolo Leonardi, Valter Moretti -- Prof. Sonia Mazzucchi, PhD Department of Mathematics University of Trento - Italy

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Seminar by Yacine Ait Sahalia in Verona, Monday 20/3/2023 at noon: How and When are High-Frequency Prices Predictable?
by Cecilia Mancini 15 Mar '23

15 Mar '23

Dear all, Professor Yacine Ait Sahalia, from Princeton University, will give the seminar How and When are High-Frequency Prices Predictable? on Monday 20/3/2023 at the Department of Economics of the Verona University, at 12 p.m. in sala Vaona, 1st floor, Santa Marta main building, via Cantarane 24, Verona It will be possible to attend the seminar also on zoom (the meeting ID is given at the official page https://www.dse.univr.it/?ent=seminario&id=5807) All interested people will be very welcome. Best regards, Cecilia Abstract: This paper studies the predictability of ultra high-frequency stock returns and durations to relevant events, using machine learning methods. We find that, contrary to low frequency and long horizon returns, where predictability is rare and inconsistent, predictability in high frequency returns and durations is large, systematic and pervasive. We identify the relevant predictors and examine what determines the variation in predictability across different stocks and market environments. Next, we compute how the predictability varies with the timeliness of the data on a scale of milliseconds. Finally, we determine the value of getting a (short-lived and imperfect) peek at the incoming order flow, an ability that is often attributed to the fastest high frequency traders, in terms of improving the predictability. (joint work with Jianqing Fan, Lirong Xue and Yifeng Zhou) web page of Yacine: https://www.princeton.edu/~yacine/

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The 34th REVES website is now Live!
by Alessandra Fabbri Colabich 15 Mar '23

15 Mar '23

Dear colleagues, This is a notice to announce that the 34th REVES website is now Live! www.reves.cnr.it <https://sites.google.com/view/reves-cnr> REVES (Espérance de Vie et Santé) is an international organization for the promotion of the use of health expectancies as an indicator of the health of populations. The call for abstracts is open with following thematic areas: · Life expectancy and healthy expectancies · Chronic diseases in older population · Health inequalities · Social Determinants of health · Mobility, functional limitations, disability, frailty, and dependence · Cognitive impairment, depression and others · Longevity · Public policies We encourage your abstract submission at: reves.italy.2023(a)gmail.com Abstract must have title, objectives, methods, results, conclusions (350 maximum words, excluding title), and three key words. The deadline for submission is March 27th. The conference will be held at the Botanical Garden in Padova, Italy, on May 24-26, 2023. Pre-conference workshops on softwares to compute health expectancy (IMaCh and SPACE) will be held on 22 and 23 May at the Department of Statistical Sciences, Padova University. For further questions, please write to us (reves.italy.2023(a)gmail.com) The conference organizers wish you a wonderful day! For the conference organizers, Manuela Scioni

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OWPS Tomorrow: Amandine Veber and Apolline Louvet
by Alberto Chiarini 14 Mar '23

14 Mar '23

Dear all, A reminder that tomorrow (Wednesday), from 15:00 to 17:00 UTC, Amandine Veber (Université Paris Cité) and Apolline Louvet (University of Bath) will be speaking at the One World Probability Seminar. Title, abstract and the zoom link are below the signature and can be found on the website https://www.owprobability.org/one-world-probability-seminar. We kindly ask that you share this message within your community. With best wishes, Alberto Chiarini (Padua) and Adrián González Casanova (Berkeley and México) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Talk 1 : Amandine Veber (Université Paris Cité) Title : Modelling the evolution of genetic diversity in a population living in a spatial continuum Abstract : The spatial structure of a population influences the way genes are transmitted from one generation to the next, and consequently how the genetic diversity in the population evolves through time. To model this evolution when the population lives in continuous space (a forest, a mountain range, ...), a stochastic process called the spatial Lambda-Fleming-Viot process was introduced in 2008 by Alison Etheridge (Oxford Univ.) and Nick Barton (IST Austria), and has been developed in a various directions since then. We shall review some of the results obtained thanks to this approach, and related questions that are still open. Talk 2 : Apolline Louvet (University of Bath) Title : Constructing a stochastic population genetics process for populations expanding in a spatial continuum Abstract : Spatial Lambda-Fleming Viot processes, or SLFVs, are a family of models for the evolution of genetic diversity in populations living in a spatial continuum. Their main characteristics is their "event-based" reproduction dynamics and the assumption that the area occupied is constant over time. In this talk, I will show how the SLFV modelling framework can be extended to include spatially expanding populations. In order to do so, I will introduce one possible approach to construct SLFVs formally, which is a variant of the method introduced in 2015 by Amandine Véber (Univ. Paris Cité) and Anton Wakolbinger (GU Frankfurt). This approach makes it possible to couple SLFV processes and explore new limiting regimes. Zoom-link: https://unipd.zoom.us/j/89102101516?pwd=Tnh4alR2cHZycVE4bHpzMU44TmxiQT09 Meeting ID: 891 0210 1516  Passcode: 959041 If you are having trouble with zoom, or if the capacity of the zoom room gets exceeded, you can also access to the Youtube live stream at the channel of the seminar: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCiLiEQGTp6bZEhuHDM-WNWQ

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Seminar announcement
by Marco Scarsini 14 Mar '23

14 Mar '23

Friday, March 17th 11.30 - 12.30 Luiss | Viale Romania, 32 | Room 310 Arkadi Predtetchinski (Maastricht University) 0-1 Laws for a Control Problem with Random Action Sets In many control problems there is only limited information about the actions that will be available at future stages. We introduce a framework where the controller sequentially chooses actions a0, a1, ... one at a time. Her goal is to maximize the probability that the infinite sequence a0, a1,... is an element of a subset G of the set of infinite sequences of natural numbers. The set G is assumed to be a Borel tail set. The controller's choices are restricted: having taken a sequence ht of actions prior to stage t, she must choose a decision at stage t from a restricted set A(ht) of natural number. The set A(ht) is chosen randomly from a distribution pt, independently over all time periods and past histories. We consider several information structures defined by how far into the future the controller knows what actions will be available. In the special case where all the action sets are singletons (and thus the controller is a dummy), Kolmogorov’s 0-1 law says that the probability for the goal to be reached is 0 or 1. We construct a number of counterexamples to show that in general the value of the control problem can be strictly between 0 and 1, and derive several sufficient conditions for the 0-1 "law" to hold. Joint work with Janos Flesch, William Sudderth, Xavier Venel ******************************************************* Marco Scarsini Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza Luiss University Viale Romania 32 00197 Roma, ITALY URL: http://docenti.luiss.it/scarsini/

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Spring Colloquium on Probability and Finance in Padova (13 April 2023)
by Giorgia Callegaro 13 Mar '23

13 Mar '23

Dear all, We are glad to announce the 4th edition of the Spring Colloquium on Probability and Finance, held at the University of Padova, on 13 April 2023. The Colloquium will bring together researchers in stochastic analysis and mathematical finance, featuring invited plenary talks by leading scholars in the field. Attendance is free but registration is required (on the conference website). Website: *https://events.math.unipd.it/SpringColloquium4/node/32 <https://events.math.unipd.it/SpringColloquium4/node/32>* Invited plenary speakers (list to be completed soon!): - Katia COLANERI (University of Rome - Tor Vergata, IT) - Mao Fabrice DJETE (Ecole Polytechnique, FR) - Caroline HILLAIRET (ENSAE - CREST, FR) - Cosimo Andrea MUNARI (University of Zurich, CH) - Sergio PULIDO (ENSIIE - LaMME, FR) We hope to see you in Padova! Best wishes, Giorgia Callegaro and Claudio Fontana -- Giorgia Callegaro Associate Professor Department of Mathematics - University of Padova Via Trieste 63 , I-35121 Padova - ITALY Tel: +39-0498271481 Fax: +39-0498271499 E-Mail: gcallega(a)math.unipd.it <https://webmail.math.unipd.it/horde3/imp/message.php?mailbox=Sent&index=598#> Personal web-page: https://sites.google.com/site/giogiocallegaro/Home

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Seminar in Statistics - ELISABETH GASSIAT
by Pierpaolo De Blasi 13 Mar '23

13 Mar '23

SEMINARS IN STATISTICS @ COLLEGIO CARLO ALBERTO <https://www.carloalberto.org/events/category/seminars/seminars-in-statistic…> Venerdi 17 Marzo 2023, alle ore 12.00, presso il Collegio Carlo Alberto, in Piazza Arbarello 8, Torino, si terrà il seguente seminario: ------------------------------------------------ Speaker: *Elisabeth Gassiat* (Université Paris-Saclay) Title: *Deconvolution with unknown noise distribution is possible. Application to distribution and support learning* Abstract: I consider the deconvolution problem in the case where no information is known about the noise distribution. More precisely, no assumption is made on the noise distribution and no samples are available to estimate it: the deconvolution problem is solved based only on observations of the corrupted signal. I will present an identifiability result, and its use for statistical inference in various applications. ------------------------------------------------ Sarà possibile seguire il seminario anche in streaming: Join Zoom Meeting <https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88424860408?pwd=VE1yYVIwN0dleE50aUxLd0lhNkMrZz09> Il seminario è organizzato dalla "de Castro" Statistics Initiative www.carloalberto.org/stats -- Pierpaolo De Blasi University of Torino & Collegio Carlo Alberto carloalberto.org/pdeblasi <https://sites.google.com/a/carloalberto.org/pdeblasi/>

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Submission of titles and abstracts for talks at the 11th General AMaMeF Conference (Bielefeld, June 26-30, 2023)
by Ferrari, Giorgio 10 Mar '23

10 Mar '23

Dear Colleagues, we would like to inform you that the submission of titles and abstracts for talks at the /11th General AMaMeF Conference/ ( https://sites.google.com/view/amamef-2023/overview ) is now open: https://sites.google.com/view/amamef-2023/abstract-submission *Please note that the deadline for abstracts' submissions is April 9. Acceptance will be confirmed by April 23 and the registration to the conference will open on April 24.* All the details about deadlines, registration and fees are listed here: https://sites.google.com/view/amamef-2023/participation-fees-and-dates All the best wishes and looking forward to welcoming you in Bielefeld in the Summer! Giorgio Ferrari and Frank Riedel

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