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School on Machine Learning of Dynamic Processes and Time Series Analysis, Pisa, Sep 24-26
by Fabrizio Lillo 03 Jun '25

03 Jun '25

We are pleased to announce the 3rd edition of the School *Machine Learning of Dynamic Processes and Time Series Analysis* that will be held at the Scuola Normale Superiore in Pisa (Italy) on September 24-26, 2025. This edition of the School is dedicated to the mathematical and computational aspects of dynamic factor models, as well as the probabilistic modeling of time series, including change point detection methods, and random machine learning models for learning dynamic processes. The School provides minicourses delivered by six keynote speakers - *Matteo Barigozzi*, University of Bologna, *Dynamic Factor Models for High-Dimensional Time Series* - *Lukas Gonon*, University of St. Gallen, *Random neural network architectures for learning dynamic processes* - *Anastasis **Kratsios*, McMaster University, *TBA* - *Francesco Ravazzolo*, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, *Probabilistic Forecasting of Commodity Markets* - *Mirco Rubin*, EDHEC Business School, *Latent factor models in finance: from the start till now* - *Tengyao Wang*, London School of Economics, *Timely Decisions: Sequential and High-Dimensional Changepoint Detection* For young researchers, there will also be a poster session to present their works. Detailed information on the School and instructions for application can be found at: https://mldyn2025.wordpress.com/ The application deadline is *June 30, 2025*. The organizers, Fabrizio Lillo Giulia Livieri Stefano Marmi Piero Mazzarisi Giorgio Rizzini ---------------------------------------- Fabrizio Lillo Dipartimento di Matematica, Università di Bologna Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa ITALY Personal website: fabriziolillo.wordpress.com University website: www.unibo.it/sitoweb/fabrizio.lillo <http://fabriziolillo.wordpress.com/> phone: +39 050509159

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Research School Announcement: “Random Walks: Applications and Interactions” at CIRM — January 19–23, 2026
by Francesca Cottini 03 Jun '25

03 Jun '25

Dear all, We are pleased to announce the upcoming research school “Random Walks: Applications and Interaction”. It will take place at CIRM (Marseille) during the week of January 19–23, 2026. The program will include: - 3 mini-courses by Alessandra Faggionato* (Università La Sapienza), Irina Ignatouk-Robert (University of Cergy), and Daniel Kious (University of Bath); - 6 research talks by Amine Asselah (Université Paris-Est Créteil), Oriane Blondel (Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1), Satya Majumdar (Université Paris-Saclay), Leonardo Rolla (University of São Paulo), Perla Sousi (Cambridge), and Dalia Terhesiu (University of Leiden); - Short presentations by participants. The goal of this research school is to provide an overview of recent advances in the study of random walks and their applications, in particular in relation to potential theory, statistical mechanics, and processes with reinforcement. We wish to bring together communities from different fields to foster interdisciplinary exchange. The mini-courses and research talks will cover a wide range of topics and will be primarily aimed towards young researchers. We warmly invite interested participants to apply (pre-register) on the conference website before *September 30, 2025*: 👉 https://conferences.cirm-math.fr/3451.html Accommodation costs will likely be covered by the conference organization (subject to availability). Please feel free to share this announcement, especially among PhD students, postdoctoral researchers, and other early-career scientists in your network. Best regards, Quentin Berger, Francesca Cottini, Cécile Mailler, Kilian Raschel *to be confirmed

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Fwd: International Seminar on SDEs and Related Topics: Rainer Buckdahn June 06
by Gianmario Tessitore - UNIMIB 02 Jun '25

02 Jun '25

Diffondo volentieri Mario ---------- Forwarded message --------- Da: Stefan Geiss <geiss(a)jyu.fi> Date: lun 2 giu 2025 alle ore 07:58 Subject: Fwd: International Seminar on SDEs and Related Topics: Rainer Buckdahn June 06 To: <gianmario.tessitore(a)unimib.it> Dear Mario, we got the info for next week's talk. Best wishes Stefan ------------------------------------------------ Friday, June 06, (12:30 noon London, 1:30 pm Berlin, 2:30 pm Helsinki, 7:30 pm Beijing) in the *International Seminar on SDEs and Related Topics* in Zoom https://jyufi.zoom.us/j/61891007917 *Rainer Buckdahn* (Université de Bretagne Occidentale, Brest, France, Shandong University Qingdao, China) will speak about *Optimal control problems with generalized mean-field dynamics* *and viscosity solutions to a Master Bellman equation* Abstract: We study an optimal control problem with generalized mean-field dynamics with open-loop controls, where the coefficients depend not only on the state processes and controls, but also on the joint law of them. The value function V which is defined in a classical way, does not satisfy the Dynamic Programming Principle (DPP for short). Indeed, we show that V solely satisfies the one-sided DPP. For this reason we introduce subtly a novel value function ϑ, which is closely related to the original value function V, so that a characterisation of ϑ as a solution of a partial differential equation (PDE) also characterises V. We establish the DPP for ϑ. By using an intrinsic notion of viscosity solution, initially introduced in Burzoni, Ignazio, Reppen and Soner and specifically tailored to our framework, we show that the value function ϑ is a viscosity solution to a Master Bellman equation on a subset of the Wasserstein space of probability measures with second order moment. The uniqueness of the viscosity solution is proved for coefficients which depend on the time and the joint law of the control process and the controlled process. The talk is based on joint work with Juan Li (SDU, Qingdao and Weihai) and Zhanxin Li (SDU, Weihai). ==== about the speaker ==== Rainer Buckdahn studied Mathematics at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena (Germany) and obtained his doctoral degree, directed by H.-J. Engelbert, in 1985. After that he held a position at the Humboldt University Berlin and completed his habilitation in 1992. In 1994 he became a professor at the University of Western Brittany (Brest, France). Rainer Buckdahn is a leading specialist in stochastic process theory with an emphasis on stochastic control and differential games, stochastic differential equations, various types of backward stochastic differential equations, and stochastic partial differential equations. Rainer Buckdahn was awarded a fellowship by the French Ministry of Research and Technology and a Heisenberg grant by the German "Deutsche Forschungsgesellschaft". He is also a member of the Academic Faculty of the "Research Centre for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences Centre" at Shandong University (China). Finally, he acts as executive editor of the journal "Probability, Uncertainty and Quantitative Risk". -- Gianmario Tessitore Dipartimento di Matematica e Applicazioni Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca

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QFinLab Seminar - Olimpia Carradori (University of Zurich) - 5/6/2025, 12:15 @ Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano
by Alessandro Calvia 30 May '25

30 May '25

Dear colleagues, you are all invited to participate in the following seminar organized by QFinLab - Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano. Thursday, 5 June 2025, 12.15-13.15 Seminar room, third floor, building 14, Via Bonardi 9, Milano (Leonardo Campus) Olimpia Carradori (University of Zurich) Title: Insurers' carbon underwriting policies Abstract: Insurance companies can influence the net-zero transition by limiting coverage for carbon-intensive projects. We study the adoption, structure, and effects of carbon underwriting policies among the world’s largest insurance groups. Using novel mine-level insurance data, we show that insurers with coal policies reduce the number of insured mines by approximately 16%, insured coal volumes by 56%, and make continued coverage significantly less likely. Implementation is often incomplete, and some insurers expand coverage despite commitments. Affected mines tend to reduce output, cut the number of employees, and are more likely to be idled in subsequent periods. Joint work with Felix von Meyerinck and Zacharias Sautner. All news can be found on the QFinLab webpage<https://www.qfinlab.polimi.it/seminars-and-meetings/>. Next seminar: Marco Tolotti (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia), 9 June 12.15.

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PhD & postdoc position in biostatistics at the University of Oslo, Norway
by Valeria Vitelli 30 May '25

30 May '25

Dear colleagues, I am pleased to share that two fully funded positions in statistics are available in my group, one for a *PhD candidate* and one for a *3-years postdoc researcher*, at the Department of Biostatistics, which is part of the Oslo Centre for Biostatistics and Epidemiology <https://www.med.uio.no/imb/english/research/centres/ocbe/>, *University of Oslo* (UiO), Norway. Both positions are linked to a project recently funded by the Research Council of Norway concerning Bayesian models for unsupervised learning when multiple data sources are available, mostly tailored to the case of molecular data in cancer genomics. They will also be involved in the broader activities of my larger research group on Statistical models for high-dimensional and functional data <https://www.med.uio.no/imb/english/research/groups/statistics-high-dimensio…> *Application deadline:* 13th June 2025 *More info and how to apply* 👉 PhD position: https://www.jobbnorge.no/en/available-jobs/job/281023/phd-candidate-in-stat… Postdoc position: https://www.jobbnorge.no/en/available-jobs/job/280960/three-year-postdoc-po… I would be very grateful if you could share the vacancies with talented candidates who might be interested in the positions. Contact person / supervisor: Valeria Vitelli (valeria.vitelli(a)medisin.uio.no ) All the best, Valeria -- Valeria Vitelli Oslo Centre for Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Department of Biostatistics, University of Oslo, Norway group page: https://www.med.uio.no/imb/english/research/groups/statistics-high-dimensio… <https://www.med.uio.no/imb/english/research/groups/statistics-high-dimensio…> mailto: valeria.vitelli(a)medisin.uio.no

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cambio data - seminari a Pavia, 4 giugno
by Benedetta Ferrario 29 May '25

29 May '25

CAMBIO DATA: mercoledì 4 giugno (e non più 3 giugno) per i seguenti due seminari presso il Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Aziendali (aula E, piano terra) dell'Università di Pavia. *ore 13:30 *Hakima Bessaih (Florida International University) *titolo*: Dynamical systems with noisy data *abstract*: Reconstructing the state of a dynamical system from noisy observations is particularly challenging when the initial conditions are unknown. This talk focuses on synchronization-based and feedback control methods for data assimilation, which dynamically align model trajectories with observed data. Techniques such as nudging, observer-based schemes, and coupling strategies will be discussed, highlighting how they correct for uncertainty and stabilize the system in real time. Applications include chaotic systems and models governed by stochastic dynamics. *ore 14:30: *Sam Power (University of Bristol) *titolo*: Gradient Flow Methods for Statistical Computation - Trends and Trajectories *abstract*: When conducting statistical estimation and inference, it is relatively commonplace that the dominant computational burden takes the form of an optimisation task. This has long been recognised for tasks of parameter estimation, though there is an increasing recognition that other tasks of interest can be fruitfully interpreted as optimisation tasks over a space of probability measures, or even over some 'hybrid' space involving both parameters and measures. In this talk, I will survey some trends in this area, focusing on how this high-level perspective finds use in both analysis of popular existing algorithms and synthesis of novel algorithms. I will also highlight opportunities for future contributions in this fast-growing area. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare.

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Last call: Ph D students in Probability and Statistics Meet Companies
by Cristina Zucca 29 May '25

29 May '25

Carissime/i, facendo seguito alla prima call, inviata a Marzo, confermiamo l’incontro di 3 giorni tra dottorandi in Probabilità e Statistica e rappresentanti di tre aziende: *Ph D Students in Probability and Statistics meet Companies* organizzato per i giorni 16-18 settembre 2025 dal gruppo UMI-PRISMA, dall Dipartimento di Matematica “G. Peano” dell’Università di Torino e il Dipartimento di Scienze Matematiche “J.L. Lagrange” del Politecnico di Torino.Le aziende che hanno accettato l'invito sono : Novartis, Toolgroups e Fondaco Group. Informazioni più complete sono disponibili alla pagina: https://sites.google.com/view/phd-companies/home La partecipazione al gruppo di studio/lavoro è gratuita per dottorandi e dottorande, ed eventuali post doc interessati, che stanno svolgendo o hanno svolto una tesi di probabilità e/o statistica matematica. Potremo finanziare il pernottamento di alcuni partecipanti presso le residenze universitarie e l'organizzazione comprende i pranzi per i partecipanti. Il numero di posti è limitato e si accetteranno iscrizioni fino al loro esaurimento*. * *La registrazione è obbligatoria e deve avvenire entro il 20 giugno utilizzando il form* *iscrizione* <https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeJnl8hdCp6UgMesAAn3rgZOHp3zj3CrqQ…> Il comitato organizzatore: Gianluca Guadagni, Franco Pellerey, Laura Lea Sacerdote, Enrico Scalas, Serena Spina, Barbara Trivellato e Cristina Zucca ------ Following the initial call sent out in March, we confirm the *three-day meeting* between PhD students in *Probability and Statistics* and representatives from three companies: *PhD Students in Probability and Statistics Meet Companies* The event will take place on *September 16–18, 2025*, and is organized by the UMI-PRISMA group, the Department of Mathematics "G. Peano" at the University of Turin, and the Department of Mathematical Sciences "J.L. Lagrange" at the Polytechnic University of Turin. The companies that have accepted the invitation are: *Novartis*, *Toolgroups*, and *Fondaco Group*. More information is available at: https://sites.google.com/view/phd-companies/home Participation in the study/work group is *free of charge* for PhD students and interested postdoctoral researchers who are currently working on, or have completed, a thesis in probability and/or mathematical statistics. We will be able to *cover accommodation costs* for some participants at university residences, and *lunches will be provided* for all attendees. The number of available spots is limited, and registrations will be accepted *until all places are filled*. *Registration is mandatory* and must be completed *by June 20* using the registration form. *iscrizione* <https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeJnl8hdCp6UgMesAAn3rgZOHp3zj3CrqQ…> *Organizing Committee:* Gianluca Guadagni, Franco Pellerey, Laura Lea Sacerdote, Enrico Scalas, Serena Spina, Barbara Trivellato, and Cristina Zucca ------------------------------ -- -- Prof. Cristina Zucca Department of Mathematics University of Torino Via Carlo Alberto 10 10123 Torino, Italy tel: +39-011-6702850 fax: +39-011-6702878

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[IFIP Performance 2025] Deadline Extended
by Zocca, A. (Alessandro) 29 May '25

29 May '25

Dear colleagues, We would like to inform you that the submission deadlines for the IFIP Performance 2025 conference have been extended by two weeks to allow authors additional time to prepare their contributions. Updated Deadlines: * Abstract registration: now due June 8, 2025 * Paper submission: now due June 15, 2025 We encourage you to take advantage of this extension and submit your latest research to the conference. Submission platform: https://performance2025.hotcrp.com/ Best regards, Alessandro Zocca On behalf of the IFIP Performance 2025 Organizing Committee

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OWABI@BioInference2025 - today at * 10.30am * UK time
by Massimiliano Tamborrino 29 May '25

29 May '25

Dear all, due to the conference running late, the OWABI www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi<http://www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi> seminars will start today at 10.30am UK time instead of 10am, as previously announced. The talks will be given by * Andrew Golightly (Durham University), Accelerating Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using incidence data * Henrik Häggström (Chalmers University), Simulation-based inference for stochastic nonlinear mixed-effects models with applications in systems biology with abstracts reported below. The talks will be streamed on the OWABI MS Team Channel<https://teams.microsoft.com/l/team/19%3AdhZ_4e_XLNJzCXPAMzTvT6BZ5KShEETkd_w…> <https://teams.microsoft.com/l/team/19%3AdhZ_4e_XLNJzCXPAMzTvT6BZ5KShEETkd_w…> , at the link https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3adhZ_4e_XLNJzCXPAMzTvT6BZ5KSh… Meeting ID: 323 917 219 730 3 Passcode: Fk9JG3eB 1st OWABI Talk: 10.30-11am UK time Speaker: Andrew Golightly<https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/andrew-golightly/> (Durham University) Title: Accelerating Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using incidence data Abstract: This work considers the case of performing Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic compartment models, using incomplete time course data consisting of incidence counts that are either the number of new infections or removals in time intervals of fixed length. The most natural Markov jump process representation of the model is eschewed for reasons of computational efficiency, and replaced by a stochastic differential equation representation. This is further approximated to give a tractable Gaussian process, that is, the linear noise approximation (LNA). Unless the observation model linking the LNA to data is both linear and Gaussian, the observed data likelihood remains intractable. Unlike previous approaches that use the LNA in this setting, two approaches for marginalising over the latent process are considered: a correlated pseudo-marginal method and analytic marginalisation via a Gaussian approximation of the noise model. These approaches are compared using synthetic data with the best performing method applied to real data consisting of removal incidence of Oak Processionary moth nests in Richmond Park, London. 2nd Seminar: 11-11.30am UK time Speaker: Henrik Häggström<https://research.chalmers.se/en/person/henhagg> (Chalmers University) Title: Simulation-based inference for stochastic nonlinear mixed-effects models with applications in systems biology Abstract: We propose a novel methodology for Bayesian inference in hierarchical mixed-effects models. By building on our work [1], we construct a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework that is highly scalable, where amortized approximations to the likelihood and the parameters posterior are first obtained, and these are rapidly refined for each individual dataset, to ultimately approximate the parameters posterior across many individuals. Unlike the current state-of-art SBI methods, which use neural networks, our approximations are expressed via Gaussian mixture models, leading to easily trainable, parsimonious yet expressive surrogate models of both the likelihood function and the posterior distribution. The methodology is exemplified via stochastic differential equation mixed-effects models to describe translation kinetics after mRNA transfection, however the methodology is general and can accommodate other types of stochastic and deterministic models. We compare our approximate inference with exact pseudomarginal inference and show that our methodology is fast and competitive. We are looking forward to seeing you at the next OWABI seminar(s), best, Massimiliano on the behalf of the OWABI Organisers ------ Dr. Massimiliano Tamborrino Reader (Associate Professor) and WIHEA Fellow Department of Statistics University of Warwick https://warwick.ac.uk/tamborrino

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Seminario di Sam Power - Pavia, 3 giugno 2025 ore 15
by Carlo Orrieri 28 May '25

28 May '25

Martedì 3 giugno alle ore 15 presso il Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Aziendali (aula E, piano terra) dell'Università di Pavia, Sam Power (University of Bristol) terrà un seminario: titolo: Gradient Flow Methods for Statistical Computation - Trends and Trajectories abstract: When conducting statistical estimation and inference, it is relatively commonplace that the dominant computational burden takes the form of an optimisation task. This has long been recognised for tasks of parameter estimation, though there is an increasing recognition that other tasks of interest can be fruitfully interpreted as optimisation tasks over a space of probability measures, or even over some 'hybrid' space involving both parameters and measures. In this talk, I will survey some trends in this area, focusing on how this high-level perspective finds use in both analysis of popular existing algorithms and synthesis of novel algorithms. I will also highlight opportunities for future contributions in this fast-growing area. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Un caro saluto Carlo Orrieri

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