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PhD course on Bayesian Statistics: modelling, computation and testing
by Consonni Guido 24 Apr '15

24 Apr '15

??? PhD in Statistics and Mathematics for Finance Università Bicocca, Milano http://www.dismeq.unimib.it/Default.asp?idPagine=765&funzione=&lingua=ING May-June, 2015 Bayesian Statistics: modelling, computation and testing Ioannis Ntzoufras; Valen Johnson Per maggiori dettagli si veda la locandina allegata. Guido Consonni Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore Largo Gemelli, 1 20123 Milano http://docenti.unicatt.it/eng/guido_consonni/ Tel 02 7234 3049 ________________________________ Ricerca, Formazione, Assistenza, Cooperazione e Sviluppo: 5 ragioni per metterci la firma. Sottoscrivi il tuo 5 per mille a favore dell'Università Cattolica e ci aiuterai a sostenere borse di studio, ricerca scientifica, progetti medico-assistenziali e sociali dell'Ateneo e del Policlinico "A. Gemelli". Info: www.unicatt.it/5permille<http://www.unicatt.it/5permille/> ________________________________

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Junior female researchers in probability - Berlin
by Alessandra Cipriani 24 Apr '15

24 Apr '15

Dear colleagues, we would like to draw your attention to our upcoming conference for "Junior female researchers in probability" in Berlin, 22- 23 October 2015 . The aim of this workshop is to promote young female researchers by giving them an opportunity to present their own work, and hear distinguished mathematicians who can inspire them to pursue a fulfilling career in probability. Invited speakers are: Kavita Ramanan (Brown University) Nadia Sidorova (UC London) Christa Cuchiero (U. Vienna) Hanna Doering (U. Osnabrueck) Zorana Grbac (U. Paris Diderot) Hao Wu (MIT) Female participants are invited to submit abstracts for contributed talks, and may apply for (limited) financial support. Of course participation of men is very welcome, but presentations and financial support are reserved for ladies. Please pass this information on to interested PhD students and postdocs. More details can be found on our website http://wias-berlin.de/people/cipriani/JFR15/ . Best regards, Peter Bank, Alessandra Cipriani, Noemi Kurt

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Fwd: Annuncio Seminario Vlad Bally - 27 Aprile - Tor Vergata
by Claudio Durastanti 24 Apr '15

24 Apr '15

Ciclo di Seminari - Progetto ERC grant PASCAL (Probabilistic and Statistical Techniques for Cosmological Applications) Lunedì 27 aprile - ore 14 - aula D'Antoni Speaker Vlad Bally, Universite' Paris-Est LAMA, INRIA title: Convergence and regularity of probability laws by using an interpolation method Abstract: In a recent paper, Fournier and Printems establish a methodology which allows to rove the absolute continuity of the law of the solution of some stochastic equations with Holder continuous coefficients. This is of course out of reach by using already classical probabilistic methods based on Malliavin calculus. In this context, Debussche and Romito employ some Besov space technics in order to substantially improve the result of Fournier and Printems. In this talk we show that this kind of problem naturally fits in the framework of interpolation spaces: we prove an interpolation inequality which allows to state (and even to slightly improve) the above absolute continuity result. Moreover it turns out that the above interpolation inequality has applications in a completely different framework: we use it in order to estimate the error in total variance distance in some convergence theorems. Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Cordiali saluti, Claudio Durastanti

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Fwd: Oberwolfach Seminar on homogenization
by Faggionato, Alessandra 23 Apr '15

23 Apr '15

---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Jc Mourrat <jean-christophe.mourrat(a)ens-lyon.fr> Date: 2015-04-22 17:48 GMT+02:00 Subject: Oberwolfach Seminar on homogenization To: Jc Mourrat <jean-christophe.mourrat(a)ens-lyon.fr> Good morning, Please find below an announcement for a summer school on homogenization. ++ Jean-Christophe Mourrat --- This is an announcement for the Oberwolfach Seminar "Stochastic Homogenization" The Oberwolfach Seminars address to postdocs and Ph.D. students from all over the world. The aim is to introduce the participants to a particular interesting development. Date: September 6th - September 12th, 2015 Organizers: I. Kim, UCLA, J.-C. Mourrat, ENS Lyon, F. Otto, MPI Leipzig, P. Sougandidis, The University of Chicago Programme: An introduction into stochastic homogenization of partial differential equations with a special focus on: Nonlinear problems, in particular Hamilton-Jacobi, interfacial motions and nonlinear elliptic equations; oscillatory boundary conditions. Probabilistic view upon stochastic homogenization: random walks in random environments, first passage percolation. Quantitative aspects of stochastic homogenization, connections to statistical physics and elliptic regularity theory. Introductory reading: For a probabilistic view: M. Biskup, Recent progress on the Random Conductance Model, Probability Surveys, Vol. 8 (2011) 294–373 For the analyst's set-up: V. V. Jikov, S. M. Kozlov, O. A. Oleinik, Homogenization of Differential Operators and Integral Functionals, Springer 1994, in particular Sections 7.1 and 7.2 Deadline for applications: June 30th, 2015 Applications including • full name and university/institute address • e-mail address • short CV, present position, university • name of supervisor of Ph.D. thesis • a short summary of previous work and interest • title, ID and date of the intended seminar should be sent preferably by e-mail (with attachments in pdf format) to: Prof. Dr. Dietmar Kröner Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach Schwarzwaldstr. 9 – 11 77709 Oberwolfach Germany seminars(a)mfo.de -- Prof. Alessandra Faggionato Department of Mathematics University La Sapienza Piazzale A. Moro, 2 00186 Rome - Italy

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Cancellazione seminario Scarsini@DSS
by Pierpaolo Brutti 23 Apr '15

23 Apr '15

Scusandomi per il breve preavviso, comunico che il seminario di Marco Scarsini previsto per oggi 23 aprile in Sapienza è *annullato* per motivi di salute dello speaker. Cordialmente --P

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Two seminars and presentation of Ph.D. thesis, Friday April 24
by Tiziano Vargiolu 21 Apr '15

21 Apr '15

(sorry for possible cross-posting) We have the pleasure to announce the following two seminars, in University of Padova, Italy Department of Mathematics, via Trieste 63 room 1BC/45, 1st floor Friday, April 24 9.00 Zorana GRBAC: "Discrete-tenor interest rate models based on polynomial preserving processes" ABSTRACT: Based on the class of polynomial preserving Markov processes, we construct families of positive martingales, which are monotone with respect to some parameter. Such martingales are particularly suitable for modeling of discretely compounded forward interest rates via additive constructions. This includes Libor-type models, as well as extensions to the multiple-curve term structure. The main advantage of this model class is the possibility to obtain semi-analytic pricing formulas for both caplets and swaptions that do not require any approximations. Moreover, additive constructions allow to easily ensure, if desired, properties such as positivity of interest rates and spreads and monotonicity of spreads with respect to the tenor - in view of the current market situation a model in which the reference OIS interest rates can become negative and the spreads still remain positive is of particular interest. Examples of tractable and flexible model specifications that we study include quadratic OU-Gaussian and OU-L?vy processes, as well as linear models. We discuss the efficient option pricing via Fourier methods and develop the necessary exponential transform formulas for polynomial preserving processes. This is joint work with K. Glau and M. Keller-Ressel. 10.00 Antonis PAPAPANTOLEON: "An equilibrium model for spot and forward prices of commodities" ABSTRACT The aim of this project is to determine the forward price of a consumption commodity via the interaction of agents in the spot and forward commodity market. We consider a market model that consists of three agents: producers of the commodity, consumers and financial investors (sometimes also called speculators). Producers produce a fixed amount of the commodity at each time point, but can choose how much they offer in the spot market and store the rest for selling at the next time period. They also have a position in forward contracts in order to hedge the commodity price uncertainty. Consumers are setting the spot price of the commodity at each time point by their demand. Finally, investors are investing in the financial markets and, in order to diversify their portfolios, also in the forward commodity market. The equilibrium prices for the commodity are the ones that clear out the spot and forward markets. We assume that producers and investors are utility maximizers and have exponential preferences, while the consumers' demand function is linear. Moreover, the exogenously priced financial market and the demand function are driven by L?vy processes. We solve the maximization problem for each agent and prove the existence of an equilibrium. This setting allows to derive explicit solutions for the equilibrium prices and to analyze the dependence of prices on the model parameters and the agent's risk aversion. This is joint work with Michail Anthropelos and Michael Kupper. After the two seminars, the defenses of a PhD thesis will take place: 11.00 Giulio MIGLIETTA: "Topics in interest rate modeling" (supervisor: Martino Grasselli) See you all in Padova! Tiziano -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tiziano Vargiolu Dipartimento di Matematica Phone: +39 049 8271383 Universita' di Padova Fax: +39 049 8271428 Via Trieste, 63 E-mail: vargiolu(a)math.unipd.it I-35121 Padova (Italy) WWW: http://www.math.unipd.it/~vargiolu --------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Reading: Lecturer in probability/stochastic analysis
by Enrico Scalas 20 Apr '15

20 Apr '15

Dear colleagues, the University of Reading is currently advertising for a permanent Lecturer in Stochastic Analysis (reference GE15056, see http://www.reading.ac.uk/about/jobs/about-job-details.aspx?vacancy_id=99568… ) and also for a Rado Fellowship (reference SF07146, see http://www.reading.ac.uk/about/jobs/about-job-details.aspx?vacancy_id=10023… ). The closing date for both posts is May 8th. Best regards, Enrico Scalas

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seminario Valeria Bignozzi in Bicocca
by Fabio Bellini 20 Apr '15

20 Apr '15

Il giorno venerdì 24 aprile alle ore 14.00 presso la aula seminari del Dipartimento di Statistica e Metodi Quantitativi della Università di Milano-Bicocca (edificio U7, IV piano), la dott.ssa Valeria Bignozzi della Università di Firenze terrà un seminario su: Reducing model risk using positive and negative dependence assumptions Abstract We give analytical bounds on the Value-at-Risk and on convex risk measures for a portfolio of random variables with fixed marginal distributions under an additional positive dependence structure. We show that assuming positive dependence information in our model leads to reduced dependence uncertainty spreads compared to the case where only marginals information is known. In more detail, we show that in our model the assumption of a positive dependence structure improves the best-possible lower estimate of a risk measure, while leaving unchanged its worst-possible upper risk bounds. In a similar way, we derive for convex risk measures that the assumption of a negative dependence structure leads to improved upper bounds for the risk while it does not help to increase the lower risk bounds in an essential way. As a result we find that additional assumptions on the dependence structure may result in essentially improved risk bounds (joint work with G. Puccetti and L. Ruschendorf). Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare. Prof. Fabio Bellini Department of Statistics and Quantitative Methods University of Milano-Bicocca Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi 8, 20126 Milano 0039-2-64483119 http://www.economia.unimib.it/bellini http://scholar.google.it/citations?user=P61L8P4AAAAJ&hl=it

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URGENT: lecturer sought
by Carina Geldhauser 19 Apr '15

19 Apr '15

-------- Forwarded Message -------- Subject: URGENT: lecturer sought Date: Sun, 19 Apr 2015 16:33:40 +0000 From: Andreas Kyprianou <A.Kyprianou(a)bath.ac.uk> To: prob-sem(a)lists.maths.bath.ac.uk <prob-sem(a)lists.maths.bath.ac.uk>, APPLIEDPROB(a)JISCMAIL.AC.UK <APPLIEDPROB(a)JISCMAIL.AC.UK> CC: world(a)alea-research.eu <world(a)alea-research.eu> Dear friends and colleagues, here is a request like one you have never heard of before: The National University of Mongolia is currently looking in haste for an available and ambitious volunteer who would like to go out to Mongolia at short notice, funded by the International Mathematical Union, to teach a 3-4 week masters-level course in probability theory *this MAY*. Details of the programme are here: http://www.mathunion.org/cdc/volunteer-lecturer-program/information-for-lec… Please see here for the requirements (PhD minimum) and the support that is on offer: http://www.mathunion.org/cdc/volunteer-lecturer-program/information-for-lec… This course comes in preparation of a 2-week research school in stochastic processes, held at the National University of Mongolia, Ulan Bator, in associated with CIMAT, DAAD, IMU and the Bernoulli society. http://smcs.num.edu.mn/saam2015/ At the moment, The People's Republic of Mongolia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongolia) is experimenting with a significant programme of visa waivers, meaning that many countries do not need a visa at the moment. This is an exceptional opportunity to be part of a significant mathematical initiative in Mongolia in the field of Stochastics. As time is of the essence, I would be grateful if you could circulate this email amongst colleagues and encourage any interested parties (even if it is just a tentative query) to contact me ASAP (a.kyprianou(a)bath.ac.uk <mailto:a.kyprianou@bath.ac.uk>) copying the email to Prof. Tsogzolmaa Saizmaa (tsogzolmaa(a)num.edu.mn <mailto:tsogzolmaa@num.edu.mn>). sincerely, Andreas Kyprianou

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Mini course announcement: SDEs, SPDEs and applications, by Prof. Viorel Barbu
by Luca di persio 19 Apr '15

19 Apr '15

Mini course announcement Prof. Viorel Barbu [ Romanian Academy and University Al.I.Cuza ] will give a mini course on SDEs, SPDEs and applications, at the Department of Computer Science, University of Verona, with the following calendar of lessons Monday: 20/4 - 27/4 - 4/5 Wednesday: 22/4 - 29/4 All the lessons will start at 14:30 with a forecasted duration of 3 hours each. Possible additional lessons will be decided during the course. The tentative programme is the following: 1) STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS Existence theory, examples to stock prices, Langevin equation, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes,Feynman-Kac formula 2) APPLICATIONS TO CONTROL PROBLEMS Stochastic HJB and stochastic control problems 3) STOCHASTIC PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS Infinite dimensional stochastic integral, Stochastic linear diffusion equation, stochastic reaction diffusion equation,stochastic porous media equation All the lessons will be given here https://goo.gl/maps/Yx2JU Strada le Grazie, 15 - 37134 Verona VR Ca' Vignal 2, first floor , Room M. Do not hesitate to contact me for further details: luca.dipersio(a)univr.it LuCa __ Luca Di Persio - PhD assistant professor of Probability and Mathematical Finance Dept. Informatics University of Verona strada le Grazie 15 - 37134 Verona - Italy Tel : +39 045 802 7968 Dept. Math University of Trento V. Sommarive, 14 - 38123 Povo - Italy Tel : +39 0461 281686

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