Dear Colleagues,

with apologies for cross-posting, we would like to draw your attention to the session

NP1.1 ``Statistical mechanics approaches to earth system dynamics: invariant measures, response, and large deviations''

to be held as part of the upcoming General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (Vienna, Austria, 3rd to 8th of April 2022).

A short description of the session can be found here

https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU22/session/42646

or at the end of this email. We would be very happy if you could consider submitting an abstract to this session.

IMPORTANT: deadline for abstract submission is 12 January 2022, 13:00 CET

For further info on abstract submission see here:

https://egu22.eu/abstracts_and_programme/how_to_submit_an_abstract.html

EGU2022 will be a hybrid conference – more information at

https://egu22.eu/about/provisional_meeting_format.html

Best wishes,

Jochen Broecker (Convener), Vera Melinda Galfi, Giulia Carigi, Georgios Margazoglou, Jeroen Wouters (Co-Conveners)

SESSION DESCRIPTION:

The equations governing the dynamics of the atmosphere and the ocean provide us with an enormously powerful tool to understand and predict the future evolution of these dynamics. By integrating these equations forward in time from a given initial condition, we are able to produce highly realistic trajectories of the earth system's temporal evolution.

A number of scientific questions however consider the statistical behaviour of solution ensembles, with the heterogeneity coming from different (yet ``typical'') initial conditions or random external forces. Examples are questions related to the global mean temperature or rainfall, the frequency of extreme events, but also questions regarding the average predictability of the system or its susceptibility to external perturbations.

Statistical mechanics provides a framework in which such questions can be addressed. Rather than considering individual solutions, randomness and uncertainty are introduced to describe the ensemble of solutions in a probabilistic manner.

This statistical mechanics approach to earth system dynamics will be the theme of this session. Contributions will cover a broad range of aspects from theory to applications and from mathematics to climate science.

Topics include:

* Novel mathematical techniques from the theory of stochastic processes and PDE's

* Examples of ideas and methods from statistical mechanics being applied to the earth system (including, but not limited to, linear response, model reduction, large deviations and related algorithms)

* Potential future applications, for instance in downscaling, data assimilation and parametrisations

----------------------------------------------------------------- Giulia Carigi, Postdoctoral Research Fellow Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Reading, UK